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Transitioning Mature Satellite Products into CDRs and CIRs: NOAA’s CDR Project

Transitioning Mature Satellite Products into CDRs and CIRs: NOAA’s CDR Project. Jeffrey L. Privette, NOAA Acknowledgments: John Bates, Tom Karl, Ed Kearns and The Joint Agency Study Team on the Climate Impacts of the Nunn-McCurdy NPOESS Certification (incl. NASA, USGS). Outline.

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Transitioning Mature Satellite Products into CDRs and CIRs: NOAA’s CDR Project

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  1. Transitioning Mature Satellite Products into CDRs and CIRs:NOAA’s CDR Project Jeffrey L. Privette, NOAA Acknowledgments: John Bates, Tom Karl, Ed Kearns and The Joint Agency Study Team on the Climate Impacts of the Nunn-McCurdy NPOESS Certification (incl. NASA, USGS)

  2. Outline • Motivation for Climate Data Records (CDRs) • NOAA’s New Start • Stakeholder-driven Development & Production

  3. Long Term Records are Needed to Determine True IPCC Projection * • IPCC model projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea ice vary greatly • Mitigation and adaptation strategies depend critically on identifying which models are best • Only high quality, sustained CDRs can validate climate model projections into the decades ahead *Resolution scale in Panel 1 is notional only.

  4. Polar-orbiting Satellite Record Can Reveal Climate Change Information 1:30 PM orbit 21st Century 20th Century 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 N07 N09 N11 N09 N14 N16 N17 AVHRR MODIS Aqua NPP VIIRS NPOESS ~2026 45-year Record From 2-3 Sensor Types

  5. 30S - 30N 248 246 244 N06 242 N07 N08 N09 N10 240 N11 N12 N14 N15 238 N16 N17 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Year Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor EDRs from NOAA Operational Satellites HIRS/2 Start of HIRS/3 • Due to the independence of individual HIRS instrument’s calibration, biases exist from satellite to satellite. • These intersatellite biases have become a common source of uncertainty faced by long-term studies.

  6. Intersatellite Calibration and Correction Provides FCDR • Biases minimized. • Temperature dependent biases accounted for. • Similar overall variances between HIRS/2 and HIRS/3. • Time series can be extended as variance preserved.

  7. Solar Insolation From Research Satellites • Original data (EDRs) cover several decades • Multiple data sources • Work Needed for CDR: • Sensor models to explain differences • Development of homogeneous data set versions • Estimation of detectable variability and trends

  8. Climate Data Records (CDRs) ProvideLong-term, Defensible Climate Benchmarks Climate signatures tend to be small, but persistent, relative to normal environmental variability. Detection/analysis often requires long-term analysis CDR is “… a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change” (NRC, 2004) • Characteristics: • Long-term (multi-decadal) • Multi-satellite/multi-sensor (possibly ‘fused’ data sources) • Seamless, unified and coherent • Normalized (minimal observatory and sampling artifacts) • Peer-reviewed, “best practice” or “community” algorithms • Validated (uncertainty well-characterized) • Well documented (incl. peer-reviewed literature) • Comprehensive metadata and QA information • Active data stewardship (reprocessings, refreshed storage media) NAS, 2004

  9. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Asheville, North Carolina • NCDC is the steward of the Nation’s in-situ and satellite data and information. Mission To provide access and stewardship to the Nation’s resource of global climate and weather related data and information, and assess and monitor climate variation and change.

  10. Monitor and Describe the Climate 2007 Anomalies over Land and Sea NOAA/NCDC 7 A Mandated Responsibility

  11. Example CDR Prioritization(Sort By IPCC, Algorithm Investment, Launch)

  12. Much Work Remains 12

  13. CDR Prioritization Example etc. (28 CDR bundles in total) CDR bundle is costing convenience to group CDRs typically produced from the same or similar algorithm(s). Primary sensor is a costing convenience to associate each CDR with one and only one NPOESS era sensor. It is recognized that data from multiple satellite sensors, and in situ data, are often used to determine a CDR. Significance to Global Change follows from a review of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). In development: Based on NASAROSES ’06 A.15 and NOAA SDS 2007 selections. First launch considers only NPP/NPOESS era launches per the mandate of the NPOESS Climate Recovery activity. State and Forcing variable bundles, as defined by CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 12, are prioritized at a 1:1 ratio.

  14. CDR Production Occurs Within An End-to-End Program

  15. Summary • CDRs provide high quality, consistent long term satellite records appropriate for climate change detection and characterization • climate modeling environments, assimilation, model validation • Currently any satellite-derived CDRs are ad hoc research efforts • NOAA-NASA developed blueprint for migration of successful research satellite products into operational CDRs • President’s FY09 budget includes new NOAA funding for CDR program • AO for grant proposals on streets • NOAA Project will require understanding stakeholder priorities and extensive stakeholder shake-out/feedback on CDRs

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