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Franklin County Public Schools

Franklin County Public Schools. Enrollment Projection and Demographic Report 2011-12. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report. Data used in this projection included: Franklin County live births for the past 10 years Franklin County population information

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Franklin County Public Schools

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  1. Franklin County Public Schools Enrollment Projection and Demographic Report 2011-12

  2. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Data used in this projection included: • Franklin County live births for the past 10 years • Franklin County population information • K-12 enrollment history at the end of the first school month by grade and by school for the past 10 years

  3. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • The methodology included: • Analysis of the end of the first school month enrollment by grade and for each school in the district. • Calculate percent of Franklin County’s live births 5 years prior to the current year number that entered kindergarten (percent of survival) • Calculate percent of students moving the next grade (percent of survival) for each school and for the district as a whole. The percent of survival for three trend periods was calculated—3, 5 and 10 years.

  4. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • The methodology included: • Percent of survival for each trend (3, 5 & 10 years) was applied to the end of the first month 2011-12 enrollment to generate projected district wide end of first month enrollment 10 years into the future. • School specific projections were generated by grade for each school for 2012-13 using data from each trend. • Population projections from the Kentucky State Data Center for school age population groups were used to analyze the trend projection and select the trend most likely to represent the actual enrollment in the future.

  5. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Figure 1: Franklin County Kentucky Population – 1980 to 2010 – Projected to 2030

  6. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: US Census 1990-2010 Table A Franklin County Population in Age Categories – 1990 – 2010 Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY US Census by Age to 1990-2010

  7. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Projected Population by Age Table B Kentucky Data Center 2011 Projections Franklin County Projected Population in Age Categories – 2015 – 2030 @Total is not exact same as projected total in Figure 1 due to rounding Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY Projection by Age to 2030

  8. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Change 2000 to 2010 by Race Table C Franklin County Population in Racial & Age Categories

  9. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Population in Relationship by Household Type - 2000 & 2010 Table D Franklin County Population in Relationship by Household Type - 2000 & 2010

  10. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Housing Units - 2000 & 2010 Table E Franklin County Housing Units - 2000 & 2010

  11. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Economic Indicators Table F Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010

  12. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Economic Indicators Table G Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010

  13. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Demographic Information: Economic Indicators Table H Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010

  14. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Enrollment History – End 1st Month – 2011-12 - Elementary: Table I-1 Enrollment by Elementary School – End of First School Month – 2011-12

  15. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Enrollment History – End 1st Month – 2011-12 – M/S & H/S: Table I-2 Enrollment by Middle and High School – End of First School Month – 2011-12

  16. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Enrollment History – End 1st Month – 2007-08 to 2011-12 – K-12: Table M End First School Month K-12 Enrollment by School - 2007-08 to 2011-12

  17. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • K-12 Enrollment History – 2000-01 to 2011-12 Table N K-12 Enrollment by Grade - End of First School Month 2001-02 to 2011-12

  18. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Projected 1st Month Enrollment - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Trends Figure 2. Projected K-12 Enrollment Franklin County Public Schools - 2011-12 to 2021-22

  19. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Projected 1st Month Enrollment Compared to KY Data Center Projections - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Trends Table P Comparison of Enrollment Trends to Data Center Age 5-19 Projection

  20. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Projected 1st Month Elem. Enrollment - 2012-13 – 3 Year Trend: Table R-1 Projected K-5 Enrollment 3-Year Trend End of First School Month - 2012-13

  21. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Projected 1st Month M/S & H/S Enrollment - 2012-13 – 3 Year Trend: Table R-2 Projected K-12 Enrollment 3-Year Trend End of First School Month - 2012-13

  22. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Special Needs Enrollment - 2007-08 – 2011-12: Table S Student with Disabilities Child Count for SEEK Calculation 2007-08 to 2011-12 The 3.9% decline of all disabled students was in contrast to the 2.3% increase for all students during the period from 2007-08 to 2011-12.

  23. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Free & Reduced Lunch Students - 2011-12: Table T-1 Elementary Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch End of 1st School Month – 2011-12

  24. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Free & Reduced Lunch Students - 2011-12: Table T-2 Middle/High Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch End of 1st School Month – 2011-12

  25. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Students on Free Lunch - 2006-07 – 2011-12: Figure 4. Percent Franklin County K-12 Students Receiving Free Lunch - 2006-07 to 2011-12

  26. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Projected Enrollment & Capacity - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Yr Trend Table U Projected Enrollment and Student Capacity 3 Year Trend

  27. Franklin Co Enrollment & Demographic Report • Summary Franklin County Public Schools are expected to experience slow enrollment growth in the next 10 years. If the trend of the past 5 years continues the school district’s number of students with disabilities may decline or at least not increase at a faster rate than overall enrollment. Based on the KY Data Center’s 2011 population projection of the 5-19 age category Franklin County’s percent of all non-white students will increase with a decline in the percent of whites.

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