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2020: A Strategist Approach – How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will Affect Who You Are and What You Do. Bryan J. Cook Director, Center for Policy Analysis American Council on Education. The Major Trends. Significance of 2020 Who will learn? Waning boomlet
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2020: A Strategist Approach –How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will Affect WhoYou Are and What You Do Bryan J. Cook Director, Center for Policy Analysis American Council on Education
The Major Trends • Significance of 2020 • Who will learn? • Waning boomlet • Traditional redifined • Where are the guys • Exploding diversity • Who will teach? • Who will lead?
Bold Goal: 2020 “…by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world” -President Barak Obama
The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34)
The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34)
Percent Change in NY Population by Race, 2005 to 2025 Source: US Census Bureau
Higher Education: 2009 to 2020 • Increased access • More accountability • Greater transparency • Cost containment
A Cautionary Tale Source: U.S. Department of Education, Projection of Education Statistics.
The Waning Boomlet Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.
High School Graduates: Variability by State Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.
NY High School Graduates 2000 to 2020 Source: US Census Bureau
The Old Nontraditional Student Percentage of Total Student Population Age 25 or Older Source: U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics 2007.
The New Nontraditional Student Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study.
A New Market for Higher Education? The Boomers Retire Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income 2007-08
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income 2007-08
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income 2007-08
What’s Happened to the Guys? Source: King, Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage?
Another Look at the Gender Gap Source: ACE, Minorities in Higher Education 21st Annual Status Report.
What’s Happened to the Guys? 31% growth 19% growth Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2014
Diversity of High School Graduates Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking on the College Door.
Change in NY H.S. Graduates by Race and Gender Source: NYSED, ORIS 2009
Current Variation in K-12 Diversity Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data 2006-07.
Cultural Diversity 16% 61% Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Postsecondary Education Statistics, Projection of Education Statistics to 2015
Cultural Diversity Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 2003-04.
Graduate and Professional School Enrollment by Race 1980 -2003 20% 219% -11% 207%
Who Will Teach? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Faculty Retirements Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Teach? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Teach? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Lead? Distribution of College Presidents by Race, 2006
Who Will Lead? Percent of Minority Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005
Senior Administrators No More Likely to be People of Color Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. 2008. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.
Who Will Lead? Distribution of College Presidents by Gender, 2005
Who Will Lead? Percent of Female Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005
And more likely to be women … Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Forthcoming. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.
Recapping the Trends • Boomlet will wane nationally, with growth continuing in a few states • A new kind of non-traditional student • Boomer retirees a potentially huge market • Huge educational strides by women • Increasing racial and cultural diversity • Major wave of faculty retirements
Center for Policy Analysis 202-939-9551 Bryan_cook@ace.nche.edu