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ALARO-0 at ZAMG Experiences, verification, identified problems, ….

ALARO-0 at ZAMG Experiences, verification, identified problems, …. Christoph Wittmann. Content. Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG. History. Short history:

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ALARO-0 at ZAMG Experiences, verification, identified problems, ….

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  1. ALARO-0 at ZAMGExperiences, verification, identified problems, …. Christoph Wittmann

  2. Content • Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG • Experiences / verification / identified problems • Precipitation • Low Stratus • Temperature • Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG

  3. History Short history: • 09/2007 ALARO-0 (minus 3MT) operational (9.6km) • 04/2009 full ALARO-0 operational (9.6km) • 05/2009 start of daily ALARO-0 4.8km run (00 UTC) • 2010 verification, tests, etc. • 06/2010 implementation of CANARI surface assimilation • 09/2010 ALARO-0 4.8km coupled to IFS • 10/2010 name for model version: “ALARO5-AUSTRIA” • 01/2011 ALARO5-AUSTRIA running 4 times / day • 03/2011 ALARO5-AUSTRIA announced as operational model at ZAMG • 09/2012 (?) NEC-SX8R switched off at ZAMG = end of 9.6km ALARO-0 version

  4. Implementation of ALARO at ZAMG Operational model at ZAMG: “ALARO5-AUSTRIA” resolution: 4.8km / 60L runs: 00 / 06 / 12 / 18h forecast range: 72h oro./grid: mean / linear time step: 180s initialization: IFS (3D) CANARI (2D) physics: ALARO-0, SK scheme dynamics: hydrostatic availability: 4 hours after init time

  5. ALADIN-LAEF operational + upgrade settings

  6. Multiphysics New version brings nice improvements (esp. skill scores for precip.) ALARO physics ALADIN-Fr physics Targets on: • Microphysics • Convection (shallow + deep), Turbulence • Cellular automaton approach included (2 members) • Radiation (radiative cloud condensate) • Screening level diagnostics (T2m, RH2m, 10m gusts) • … never ending story (ideas+input needed …) TOUCANS and other new developments are always welcome 

  7. Content • Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG • Experiences / verification / identified problems • Precipitation • Low Stratus • Temperature • Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG,…

  8. Precipitation Experiences/Feedback • triggering of convection over orography too early (nothing new) • overestimation of (severe) convective precipitation over orography • underestimation of (stratiform) precipitation over flatland areas (e.g. northeastern part of Austria) E-SUITE launched end of April (using retuned microphysics, work by Radmila), should become operational within next weeks: Nice improvements for 2 of the 3 mentioned points …

  9. Winter case I winter case: frontal zone approaching alps ALARO 6.5km ALARO 4.8km ALARO 9.6km IFS COSMO-EU

  10. Winter case II winter case: frontal zone approaching alps

  11. Summer case II

  12. Triggering of convection

  13. Triggering of convection (COSMO vs. ALARO)

  14. Severe convection I reports from regional centers in the south of Austria: overestimation of severe convection

  15. Severe convection II

  16. Severe convection III

  17. Verification

  18. Low stratus ALARO-1 Working days Experiences/Feedback: ALARO5-AUSTRIA with better performance than IFS, COSMO(-EU) …. but just when using empirical subinversion scheme (SK) In flatland areas performance is quite good stratus in “resolved” valleys and basins still not sufficiently predicted 23/09/2014

  19. Beispiel Hochnebel I Synoptikertreffen ALARO5 IFS ALARO10 MSG VIS

  20. Synoptikertreffen

  21. Verification low stratus Vienna

  22. Temperatures ALARO-1 Working days Experiences/feedback: Current PBL / SBL / surface representation with problems create a mixed layer in winter time (cold daytime bias) general cold daytime bias during summer best performance during spring / autumn better performance during night 23/09/2014

  23. Temperature ALARO-1 Working days

  24. 2m temperature verification Vienna during night during day time series 00+27h AE/BIAS ALARO time series 00+36h AE/BIAS ALARO

  25. Content • Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG • Experiences / verification / identified problems • Precipitation • Low Stratus • Temperature • Gusts • Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG, …

  26. Plans with ALARO at ZAMG Current priority: AROME-AUSTRIA (2.5 km) … plan: operational in 2013 Migration NEC -> SGI Beside that: Ready for tests with new ALARO-1 developments Stratus (SK scheme vs. TOUCANS?) Wind gusts AROME 2.5km vs. ALARO 5 km Continue work on multiphysics for LAEF Continue work on stochastic physics for LAEF Soon: AROME 1km , ALARO 1km ?

  27. Input for discussions Most important topics to be handled (as seen from ZAMG): • Triggering of convection • Intensity of convective precipitation • Missing (weak) stratiform events • Stratus in valleys, basins • Cold daytime bias • Wind+Gusts (10m+100m) … some of that already solved with ALARO-1?

  28. SGI ICE X ALARO-1 Working days 23/09/2014 After almost 1 year of delay … … a new HPC is waiting at ZAMG for more complex physics, higher resolution, … … ready for work in few month (after migration work )

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