An Overview of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Spring Forecasting Experiments

1. An Overview of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Spring Forecasting Experiments Steven Weiss1 andJack Kain2 1NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 2NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK

2. EFP EWP What is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed? • An organization and facility that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between SPC, NSSL, WFO OUN, and the broader national and international meteorological community of research scientists, academia, and forecasters. Initially Two Main Program Areas Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program Prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events from a few hours to a week in advance Detection and prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events up to several hours in advance

3. HWT – Experimental Warning Program Phased Array Radar Probabilistic Hazard Information Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor CASA Radars Courtesy: Travis Smith and Greg Stumpf (NSSL/MDL)

4. EFP EFP EWP EWP NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed • An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between SPC, NSSL, WFO OUN, and the broader national and international meteorological community of research scientists, academia, and forecasters. Since 2009 - Three Main Program Areas Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program GOES-R PG Real time OT&E of GOES-R products prior to launch GOES-R Proving Ground

5. HWT - GOES-R Proving Ground Convective Initiation Nowcast CI Occurring (Glaciation) CI Likely (Supercooled/Mixed Phase) CIPossible (All ‘warm’ liquid) Proxy GLM Data 4 km WRF Simulated Satellite Overshooting Top/Thermal Couplet Courtesy: Chris Siewert GOES-R Proving Ground/SPC

6. EFP EFP EWP EWP NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed • An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between SPC, NSSL, WFO OUN, and the broader national and international meteorological community of research scientists, academia, and forecasters. Since 2009 - Three Main Program Areas Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program Prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events from a few hours to a week in advance GOES-R PG GOES-R Proving Ground

7. Spring Experiments http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/hwt/efp/ When: • ~8 am to 4 pm M-F from May into mid-June Where: • In National Weather Center HWT between OUN and SPC Focus: • Evaluate emerging scientific concepts and tools in a simulated operational forecasting environment Participation: • ~60 researchers and forecasters from U.S. and international government agencies, academia, and the private sector • 8-12 active participants at any time

8. HWT Spring Experiment2010 Participating Institutions: NOAA Agencies UniversitiesGov’t Agencies Private • NCEP/EMC (2) -NCEP/AWC (6) -NCEP/HPC (5) -NCEP/SPC (7) -NCEP/OPC -NWS/ABQ -NWS/HUN -NWS/ANC -NWS/CAE -OAR/NSSL (4) -NESDIS (2) -Oklahoma -Iowa State -Albany/SUNY (3) -Texas A&M -MIT/LL -UA/Huntsville (2) -NWS/DTX -NWS/EAX -NWS/EKA -NWS/TWC -NWS/FGZ -NWS/PIH -NWS/TFX -CIMSS/UW(8) -OAR/PSD -NCAR/DTC (6) -FAA/Academy (2) -FAA/ATCSCC (2) -NASA/SPoRT (4) -AFWA (2) -Environ. Canada (3) -Mitre (CAASD) -FirstEnergy -SSAI -NWS/RAH -NWS/ILN -NWS/OKX -NWS/RLX -NWS/ATCSCC -NWS/OST (5) -NWS/MDL (2) -CIRA/CSU (2) -OAR/GSD (3) - The HWT is a facilitator of R2O & O2R across the larger community

9. Core HWT-EFP Collaborators • NOAA SPC & NSSL – Core HWT-EFP Partners • NOAA NCEP EMC – Environmental Modeling Center • NOAA ESRL GSD – Global System Division • GOES-R – NESDIS GOES-R Proving Ground • NCAR/NOAA DTC – Developmental Testbed Center • OU CAPS – Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms • NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research

10. Hazardous Weather Testbed Unique Benefits • The close working relationship between operational and research meteorologists has fostered • Increased appreciation by Research Scientists of forecaster insights, and operational constraints and requirements • Education of Operational Forecasters about cutting-edge NWP models & science concepts for application to severe weather forecasting • Accelerated Transfer of useful new science and technology from research to operations

11. Primary HWT Collaborative Forecast Projects Focus has been on exploring advanced NWP applications for severe weather prediction 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-09 2010 WINWEX ‘97 SE2010 Hi-Res WRF & Ensembles; Severe storm, Aviation and QPF Desks SE2002 IHOP forecasting support (Conv. Init.) SE2006 Pre-implementation evaluation of NAM-WRF SE2000 Evaluation of Model soundings, RUC-based SFCOA, hail SE2004 First detailed look at Hi-Res WRF SE2003 Short-Range Ensembles (SREF) SE2007-09 Hi-Res WRF & Ensembles SE2001 Subjective Verif., Conv. Param. SE2005 Hi-Res WRF configuration testing

12. 2010 HWT Spring Experiment • Expansion of Convective Hazards • Explore high resolution NWP applications for • Severe thunderstorms (SPC-NSSL) • Aviation-impacts (AWC) • QPF/Heavy Rain (HPC)

13. 2010 HWT Spring Experiment • The inclusion of aviation-impacts and QPF/heavy rain components into a traditional severe storm focus provided many new challenges and opportunities (for success and failure!) • An important “behind the scenes” topic is logistical planning and execution of the experiment • This is especially critical when daily real-time forecasting experiments are conducted • A fundamental foundation for the HWT (and other testbeds): • If we knew the answers to key science and forecasting questions already, we would not need to conduct an experiment (moving into “uncharted waters”) • Unknowns also include optimal experiment design

14. High Resolution Community Models Used in the 2010 Spring Experiment

15. High Resolution Community Models Used in the 2010 Spring Experiment

16. (36 GB/day) CAPS (00, 09, 12, 15, 18 UTC) (5 GB/day) NCAR (00, 12 UTC) (70 GB/day*) HRRR/RUC13 (00, 09, 12, 15, 18 UTC) (18 GB/day) EMC (00, 12 UTC) (4 GB/day) NSSL (00 UTC) SPC DTC WEBSITE ARCHIVE CAPS: 1.5 TB EMC: 544 GB HRRR: 270 GB NCAR: 152 GB NSSL: 235 GB (3+ TB TOTAL) HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED Courtesy: Patrick Marsh NSSL/OU *10 GB/day archived

17. HWT EFP – Web Pages Imagery is produced for model data and observations using GEMPAK and displayed on EFP webpages. Image domain changes daily based on experimental forecast domain. Approximately 777,000 graphics produced during SE2010: ~ 694,000 model graphics (75% for 00z models) ~ 83,000 observed graphics (radar, lightning, storm reports, etc.) During SE2010, all model graphics produced on 32 processor NSSL server. 3, 4, or 6 images displayed in a grid to compare model data and team forecasts directly to observed data. Can swap images on-the-fly. Other EFP webpage features: - Forecast domain selection - Data flow status - EFP blog - Model evaluation forms - Post-event archive http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2010/

18. Severe Forecast and Evaluation Primary Activities • Increasing temporal resolution is a key goal • Continue exploration of convection-allowing models • Explicit Hourly Maximum Storm Attribute Fields (UH, UVV, Wind Gust, Graupel) • Morning • Issue probabilistic severe thunderstorm forecasts for 20-00z and 00-04z time periods over movable mesoscale region • Same periods as SPC enhanced thunderstorm outlooks • Subjective evaluation of yesterday’s forecasts and experimental model guidance • Afternoon • Update morning forecasts with later data • Focus on observational data plus 12z NMM, 12z NCAR, and hourly HRRR forecasts

19. Example of SSEF Maximum Member Guidance for Severe Thunderstorms 25-hr forecasts valid 01z 12 June 2010 Max Updraft Max Vert. Helicity Int. Graupel Max Updraft Observed Svr Speed Rpts 00-01z

20. Example of SSEF Neigborhood Exceedance Probability of Graupel 25-hr forecasts valid 01z 12 June 2010 Prob >20kg/m2 Prob >30kg/m2 Prob >40kg/m2 Observed Svr Rpts 00-01z

21. Experimental Severe Storm Probability Forecasts and Verifying Reports 11 June Prelim. Prelim. Valid Valid 20-00z 00-04z Same probability contours as SPC operational outlooks but for two 4-hr forecast periods Final Final Valid Valid 20-00z 00-04z

22. Preliminary NCEP-Center Findings • Severe Component • Convection-allowing WRF models and SSEF in particular can provide useful guidance about convective mode, intensity, and likelihood of occurrence • Hourly Maximum Fields (POE and Max) have promise to extract relevant storm attribute information (severe type?) • Aviation Component • Successful introduction to high-res ensemble products • QPF Component • Although not perfect, high-res models are useful and can improve warm season QPF forecasts • CAPS ensemble particularly impressive – “Transformational improvement of warm-season QPF”

23. HWT Planning – 2011 • Spring Experiment 2011 Preliminary Plans • Convective Initiation Focus (OAR/NWS) • Improvements in CI are critical to aviation, EMs, etc. • CI is lead component of overall severe weather forecasting process • Initiation, evolution, mode, intensity, longevity • Lightning Prediction Focus (NWS) • CI can correspond directly to lightning prediction • Severe Thunderstorm Component (SPC/NSSL) • Continuation of ongoing test and evaluation of CAM and SSEF guidance for severe storm prediction • QPF/Heavy Rain Component (HPC) • HPC will be key partner again in 2011 • Aviation-Impacts Component (AWC) • Primary aviation component will occur at AWT in 2011 • Collaboration anticipated, especially with CI - Lightning component • Early plans - three desks for Severe, QPF, and CI-Lightning