Historical evidence of the influence of climate on some commercial fish

1. Historical evidence of the influence of climate on some commercial fish populations of the Barents and White seas Dmitry Lajus (State University of St.Petersburg) Julia Lajus, Alexey Kraikovsky, Zoya Dmitrieva, Daniil Alexandrov (European University at St.Petersburg RUSSIA Influence of Climate Change on North Atlantic Fish Stocks, Bergen, 11-14 May 2004

2. HISTORY OF MARINE ANIMAL POPULATIONS (HMAP) (part of Census of Marine Life Project, Sloan Foundation) To use historical data for extracting biologically significant information Use of data for pre-statistical period (before end of 19th century) for studying dynamics of fish populations: Problems: - little information on circumstances of fishing (for instance, no data about recruitment, little data on fishing effort etc.); - gaps in data series, - often uncertain reliability of data Advantages: - potential for obtaining long-term data series, - in pre-statistical period fish populations were not affected by overfishinig, pollution, habitat degradation etc.

3. Data source: recent findings from 17th and 18th centuries in clostrial and state archives of Moscow, St.Petersburg, Arkhangelsk.

4. Poods&foonts [weight] Number Date Day of July 1770 Salmon caught Salmon caught Salmon caught Salmon caught Salmon caught Salmon caught

5. Data source: recent findings from 17th and 18th centuries in clostrial and state archives of Moscow, St.Petersburg, Arkhangelsk. Only data sets which allow us to account for fishing effort, i.e. to analyse catch per unit effor (CPUE) have been selected. Two cases: Fisheries of Solovetsky monastery for cod and halibut at Kildin Island, 18th century. Fisheries for Atlantic salmon in the White and Barents sea basins, 17-18th century.

6. Kildin Island and scheme of main currents and fish migrations in the Barents Sea Kildin Island

7. Fishing for cod & halibut at Murman coast by hook and line

8. + 18 16 14 12 10 0 8 6 4 2 1711 1741 1750 1755 1765 1710 1725 1740 1742 1744 1745 1748 1766 1786 1787 1793 1789 1791 1743 1761 1763 1764 1784 1717 1719 1746 1747 1749 1751 1754 1762 1767 1785 Сod and halibut сatches (metric tonns/boat per year) at fisheries of Solovetsky monastery, Kildin Island autocorrelations: lag=1, n=22, r=0,52 (p=0,013) lag=2, n=21, r=0,36 (p=0,104)

9. Atlantic salmon fisheries in the basins of the White and Barents seas, 17-18th centuries

10. Life cycle of Atlantic salmon in the Russian North

11. Ancient stone drawing of salmon fishery White Sea area, 6-7 thousand years ago

12. Salmon fishing gear: weir at Onega River, middle of 19th c

13. Salmon fishing gear garva ostroga

14. Studied Atlantic salmon fisheries

15. 16000 140000 Western Murman Varzuga RIver 14000 120000 12000 100000 3 10000 80000 8000 60000 6000 2,5 40000 4000 20000 2000 2 0 0 1,5 1 1600 1700 1800 1900 1600 1700 1800 1900 3 3500 Onega River Vyg River 0,5 2,5 3000 2500 2 0 2000 1600 1700 1800 1900 1,5 1500 1 1000 0,5 500 0 1600 1700 1800 1900 0 1600 1700 1800 1600 1700 1800 1900 1600 1700 1800 Catches of Atlantic salmon, number Autocorrelations: lag=1, n=29, r=0,31, (p=0,101) lag=2, n=24, r=0,51, (p=0,010)

16. Significant autocorrelations tell as about non-random changes in catches. What are potential reasons of such changes? Variation in recruitment, and therefore, in abundance of adult fish consequences: - positive correlation with temperature with some lag - about ten years for cod and halibut and about five for salmon; - positive correation with abundance of other populations from the north of the distribution range; - negative correlation with populations from south of species’ distribution range Variation in migration patterns, and therefore, in availability for coastal fisheries (cod and halibut) consequence: - negative correlation with temperature without lag-period (?)

17. Correlation of obtained data with available relevant literature time-series for 17-18th centuries Sources: Iceland temperatures (Bergtharssen, 1969), Greenland temperatures (Bol’sheianov, 2000), Norwegian herring and cod landings (Qiestad, 1994) literature time-series our data Assessments of confidential levels accounted for autocorrelations Introduction of lags gives similar results

18. 2,5-3,0 kg 2,5-3,0 kg 11,5 kg in average, Indera River, n=33 6,3 kg in average Catches and weight of Atlantic salmon in the Varzuga district 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1625 1660 1705 1730 1763 1824 1872 1902 1928 1958 2000

19. Location (fishing Number of Weight Average weight place) fish ( poods) as (kg) caught appear in document Belkovaia Bol`shaia 67 22.5 5.50 Velikaia Izba 23 8.2 5.84 Indera River 33 23.1 11.47 Poplavnaia Rendoga 4 2.0 8.19 Kharovnaia Rendoga 3 1.0 5.46 Kicha ( Kitsa) River 19 5.5 4.74 Chavanga River 31 9 4.76 Strelka ( Strel`nia) 12 3 4.10 River Gremiachaia 10 3.5 5.73 Malaia Ogorodnaia 5 2 6.55 Number and weight of salmon, caught by Solovetsky Monastery at various fishing places in Varzuga district in 1763(Reference: RGADA. F. 1201. Op. 5. D. 4538. L. 9 back -13 back)

20. Conclusions Historical data show: - non-random year-to-year variation in catch sizes of cod & halibut and Atlantic salmon; - large variation in average weight of Atlantic salmon in different years. In absence of antropogenic influences these changes must be explained by variation of natural environmental conditions. Likely, catches per unit effort of cod & halibut and Atlantic salmon in 17-18th centuries are positively associated with temperature changes