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Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool

Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool. W. de Vries, J.P. Lesschen, J. Kros, M. Kempen and B.S. Elbersen Alterra, Wageningen UR and University of Bonn CCAT end-user meeting, 30 March 2010. Outline. CCAT approach to predict environmental indicators

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Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool

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  1. Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool W. de Vries, J.P. Lesschen, J. Kros, M. Kempen and B.S. Elbersen Alterra, Wageningen UR and University of Bonn CCAT end-user meeting, 30 March 2010

  2. Outline • CCAT approach to predict environmental indicators • Environmental indicators • Description and base line results • Comparison results with other studies • Cross compliance measures • Results environmental assessments • Effect of separate measures (graphs) • All SMRs and GAECs (maps of baselines and effects) • Conclusions

  3. Approach • Existing models are further adapted and integrated into the CCAT tool • Basis of the CCAT tool • Economic model CAPRI • Environmental assessment model MITERRA-Europe • Meta-models of the detailed biogeochemical models DNDC and EPIC, for a limited number of indicators and measures

  4. CAPRI Livestock, landuse Base line 2005 CC measures Excretion model MITERRA Excretion C, N, P, metals manure/fertiliser model MITERRA housing model MITERRA Uptake model MITERRA input to soil C, N, P, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn uptake N, P, metals EPIC metamodel Soil module MITERRA DNDC metamodel housing emission NH3, N2O, CH4 soil emission NH3, N2O, CH4 N leaching, runoff erosion

  5. MITERRA-Europe • A tool for integrated assessment of N, P and C budgets and emissions from agriculture in EU-27 at Member State and regional levels (NUTS-2) • Developed for the European Commission • Based on information from CAPRI and RAINS/GAINS • Simple/rapid model • Uniform approach for EU-27 • Analysis of scenarios and measures

  6. N outputs: harvested crop Atmosphere Atmosphere NH3 N2O NOX N2 NH3 N2O NOX N2 N inputs: N fertilizer BNF, N deposition Crop production:- Crop type - Cropped area - Management Animal production: - Animal species - Animal number - Management N outputs: milk, meat, egg feed manure NH4+ NO3- DON Npart NH4+ NO3- DON Npart Groundwater & surface waters MITERRA-Europe

  7. MITERRA-Europe in CCAT tool Cross compliance obligations Changes in management Costs of compliance CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping shares 2) Change in livestock type/number MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water 2) Air 3) Soil

  8. Set of ND measures 1 1 MITERRA-Europe 5 CAPRI-Preprocessor Per NUTS2 %  in: Nfer, Nam 2 Per NUTS2 %  in: #An, crop area 2 Additional cost: € ha-1 3 CAPRI NO3 le, NH3 em, N2Oem CH4 em, Nbalance, Pbalance Cost due to  N: € (kg N ha-1)-1 6 4 • Per NUTS2: • - Total costs € ha-1 • Environmental indicators 7

  9. MITERRA-Europe indicators • Air: • NH3 emission • N2O emission • CH4 emission • GHG emission • Water: • N leaching • N (sub-)surface runoff • NO3 concentration groundwater Soil: • Soil carbon stock • N balance • P balance • Metal balance (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and Hg) Biodiversity: • Critical N load exceedance (terrestrial ecosystems) • N-concentration in surface water (aquatic ecosystems)

  10. Nutrient soil balances N balance EU-27 P balance EU-27

  11. Metal balances EU-27

  12. Comparison MITERRA results N2O: reported EU-27 to UNFCCC NH3: EMEP and NEC values

  13. Measures: status/decisions • Linkage SMRs/GAECs and proxy CCAT measures include: • SMRs Nitrates Directive • 8 SMRs evaluated by MITERRA-Europe • 3 SMRs evaluated by DNDC • 1 SMR evaluated by EPIC. • SMRs Ground Water and Sewage Sludge Directive • 1 measure related to heavy metals evaluated by MITERRA-Europe • GAECs (focused on carbon sequestration) • 3 GAECs (crop rotations, cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by MITERRA . • 2 GAECs (cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by EPIC and DNDC.

  14. Clustered Nitrates Directive measures • Maximum manure N application (170 kg N/ha) • Limitation to N application in winter and wet periods • Limitation to N application on sloping grounds • Manure storage with minimum risk on leaching • Appropriate application techniques • Buffer zones • Growing winter crops • (Balanced N fertilizer application)

  15. Compliance levels • Present compliance levels are related to the base line period 2005-2009. Full compliance is assumed 100%, unless impossible, using activities for the year 2005. • Present compliance levels are based on investigations within CCAT.

  16. Results environmental assessments with MITERRA-Europe

  17. Effect of measures

  18. Comparison scenarios

  19. NO3 concentration groundwater baseline % diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  20. N concentration in surface water baseline % diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  21. N2O emission baseline % diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  22. NH3 emission NH3 emissionbaseline % diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  23. Critical N load exceedance Exceedance CL baseline % diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  24. Metal balances Cd balancebaseline % diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  25. Soil organic carbon stocks baseline abs diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

  26. Results detailed environmental assessments with Meta models EPIC and DNDC

  27. Limitations meta model assessments SMRs and GAECs evaluated by Meta models: do not include present compliance levels and possible future implementation levels per country are limited to 2 crops only, i.e. maize and barley are limited to 2 GAECs, i.e. cover crops and zero tillage Results thus show: a spatially detailed assessment for a theoretical situation (zero and full compliance) and a limited number of crops

  28. DNDC: No tillage vs Tillage scenario: N2O

  29. EPIC: Cover crop • Rainfed Maize • Cover/N fixing crop (clover) • Expressed as % change with regard to baseline • Erosion • NO3 leaching

  30. EPIC: No-till • Barley: no-till • Erosion • NO3 leaching

  31. Conclusions Impacts of CC obligations (SMRs) related to the Nitrates Directive: Impacts are highest on N leaching/runoff There is a small positive effect on NH3 emissions, N2O emissions and carbon sequestration. Except for balanced N fertilization, the impacts are limited (<5%) on N leaching/N concentrations and very limited (<2%) for N emissions. The difference between baseline and zero compliance (what did we gain) is larger than between full compliance and baseline (what can still be gained). CC levels for the Nitrates Directive are already high

  32. Conclusions CC obligations (GAECs) may significantly reduce erosion and to a lesser extent N fluxes Cross Compliance impacts are regionally different. In most regions, there are positive changes in agricultural emissions. However, a selection of regions experience negative environmental externalities: Soil C (Poland, Southern Portugal), Ammonia (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Alpes-Mediteranée). A strict balanced N fertilization can further reduce N leaching and NH3 emissions and enhance GHG mitigation

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