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Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-France status and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France

Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-France status and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France. Outline. Operational configuration Post-processing LAMEPS experiment Combination of different SVs sets (Hungary) Forecasting Extreme Water Levels in Estuaries Forecasting uncertainty on wind power

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Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-France status and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France

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  1. Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-Francestatus and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  2. Outline • Operational configuration • Post-processing • LAMEPS experiment • Combination of different SVs sets (Hungary) • Forecasting Extreme Water Levels in Estuaries • Forecasting uncertainty on wind power • Future plans SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  3. Operational configuration • Ensemble based on Météo-France operational global model ARPEGE (variable mesh)  PEACE (Prévision d’Ensemble A Courte Échéance) • T358c2.4 version (operational ARPEGE resolution  ~20km over France) • Initial state uncertainties with SVs • 11 members (ARPEGE operational + 10 perturbed members) • 1 run/day (18H) • Up to 60h SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  4. Singular Vectors computation • Targeting over Atlantic Ocean and Western Europe • Optimization time window : 0-12h • Total Energy norm (initial and final time) • Selection of the 16 first SVs • Linear combination according to the statistical errors of analysis • No physics (except diffusion) • Low resolution : TL95 regular truncation SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  5. Svs targetting area SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  6. SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  7. SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  8. SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  9. Post-processing : statistical adaptation • Multi-linear regression (Pseudo-PP) • 2m Temperature, 10m Wind speed • Training (3 years) on the control run • Coefficients computed over the first 24h forecast • Then applied to the corresponding steps (ie coeffs 6h applied at 30h and 54h) •  + more spread •  - less unbiaised • ~500 sites over France SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  10. Calibration • Talagrand diagrams • Dynamical (last 40 days) and global (over all of the sites) training • + sample size • - no local effects • ~500 sites over France • 2m temperatures, 10m Wind speed, 24hTP SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  11. LAMEPS experiment (1) • PEACE coupled with ALADIN • 48H forecasts • 10km mesh grid • 20 cases of heavy precipitations • Compared to observations data (~1100 rain gauges) SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  12. LAMEPS experiment (2) HR HR SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  13. LAMEPS experiment (3) Probabilities for 12hRR > 5,10 and 20mm - Step 24h 24 Sept. 1999 Observations Probabilities from PEACE Probabilities from PEACE/ALADIN SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  14. Combination of SVs • Collaboration MF/HMS (E.Hägel) • Experiments on different targetting areas • Computation of a set of SVs on Central Europe • Selection of independent SVs from the first set and combination • Then integration with the global ARPEGE based ensemble system for a ten day period SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  15. MSLP WS10 results with the former PEACE target domain T850 z500 results with combination of SVs Average standard deviation over Hungary for the period 10/07/2004-19/07/2004 for MSLP, ws10, T850, z500 for different experiments with the model ARPEGE SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  16. Combination of SVs • The improvement we achieved is comperable with the case when we changed only the target domain • It would also be possible to use different target times for computing the two sets of SVs, maybe further improvement could be achieved • Possibility to implement this new computation in the operational PEACE configuration. • See Edit’s poster for further informations ! SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  17. Uncertainty on wind power • Project with : • EDF (wind power production data) • EMP (wind power production model) • MF (wind forecast distributions from PEACE) • Evaluation over 18 months • Selection of wind power sites over France SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  18. SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  19. Forecasting Extreme Water Levels (1) Storm surges Nuclear power plant cooling Observed level Over level Astronomic tide Under level SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  20. Storm surges Forecasting Extreme Water Levels (2) Atmospheric Forcing (WS, WD, MSLP) Storm Surges Model Initial State Bathymetry SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  21. Forecasting Extreme Water Levels (3) Wind speed Wind direction MSLP SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  22. Future plans • Work on SVs (stretched, physics, area, time, combination) • Model perturbation • Evolved perturbation • Downscaling • Coupling with the limited area model ALADIN  heavy precipitations predictions • Post-processing SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  23. Great scale forecast : • deterministic model • multi-model approach • different lagged forecast • Ensemble : stamps, spread • Multi-analysis ensemble (initial state sensitivity) • Sensitive weather • Probabilistic forecat • Multi-ensemble approach SRNWP workshop - Bologne

  24. Discussion • How to deal with different models/ensembles ? • How to rely uncertainty from ensembles to the deterministic forecast from high resolution models (eg epsgrams vs det. Atmograms) ? • How to rely different distributions (eg « mixed epsgrams ») ? SRNWP workshop - Bologne

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