2008 AT540 Forecast Contest!

1. 2008 AT540 Forecast Contest! • Compete against your classmates and TA for bragging rights and a chance to win extra points on your final lab grade! • Apply the forecasting tools learned in class to real forecasting situations • Learn more about Fort Collins weather, what drives it and what are the difficulties in forecasting it

2. Contest Schedule • You will be forecasting for Fort Collins on every Tuesday/Thursday that we hold AT540 class. • Forecasts are due at 5:00pm • You will forecast for the 48-hour period beginning at 7pm MST the day the forecast is submitted... • If you fail to enter a forecast you receive the climatological average values for that day (try to avoid this)‏ • There is no course grade penalty for missing forecasts but submitting them is considered mandatory • If you miss more than 2 we will have to consider a grade penalty • But on the bright side, the winner will receive +1 on their lab grade and second place receives +0.5 points!

3. Say you are forecasting today (Tuesday): • Day 1: • Tuesday 7pm MST to Wednesday 7pm MST • Day 2: • Wednesday 7pm MST to Thursday 7pm MST

4. Forecast elements • Your forecast will consist of maximum and minimum temperatures and 24-hour accumulated liquid-equivalent precipitation for both Day 1 and Day 2 • Temps in degrees F • Precip is forecasted based on categories: • 0: no precipitation – trace • 1: 0.01” - 0.09” (inclusive)‏ • 2: 0.10” - 0.24” • 3: 0.25” - 0.49” • 4: 0.50” - 0.99” • 5: >= 1.00”

5. Scoring • You are assessed 1 error point for each degree difference between your forecasted temperatures and the observed temperatures • You are assessed 4 error points for every precipitation category your forecast is off from the observed • Total error points are tallied and the forecaster with the least amount of points wins (like golf)‏

6. Submitting your forecasts • rams.atmos.colostate.edu/dsward/AT540/login.php • Also a link to this site from the AT540 homepage • Your login name is your last name (first letter capitalized!)‏ • Password is the first two letters of your first name and the first two letters of your last name (all lowercase)‏ • The rest is relatively self-explanatory, just remember to get them in by 5:00pm!

7. Other players • Climo – average high, low, precip for the particular day in question • Consensus – The average of all human forecasts (typically does quite well)‏ • NWS – You never know what you're going to get from the weather service • NAM, GFS MOS

8. Verification and results • Results will be posted on the contest website as soon as they are available • At the end of the semester I will put together a more complete analysis of the results with graphs and things • The forecasts are verified with the 7pm observations from the CSU campus coop site • If necessary, the CSU campus data-logger numbers will be used • If both the data-logger and human observer fail for some reason, KFNL data are used

9. Helpful websites • How to read the MOS: • http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/metcard.php • Meteograms (model forecast time series)‏ • http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/meteoform.php • Grid interpolations: • Detailed model output including upper air forecasts and convective parameters • http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm