Leveraging national communications to integrate climate change issues into development policy

1. Leveraging national communications to integrate climate change issues into development policy Sub-Regional Workshop for GEF Focal Points in the Caribbean Barbados, 16-18 June 2009

2. OUTLINE • Key climate change threats in the Caribbean • Role of National Communications (NC) • How to use the potential of NC projects to integrate climate change into development and sector policies

3. Projected increase in air temperature (°C) by region, relative to the 1961–1990 period Region 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 Mediterranean 0.60 to 2.19 0.81 to 3.85 1.20 - 7.07 Caribbean 0.48 to 1.06 0.79 to 2.45 0.94 - 4.18 Indian Ocean 0.51 to 0.98 0.84 to 2.10 1.05 - 3.77 Northern Pacific 0.49 to 1.13 0.81 to 2.48 1.00 - 4.17 Southern Pacific 0.45 to 0.82 0.80 to 1.79 0.99 - 3.11

4. Projected change in precipitation (%) by region, relative to the 1961–1990 period Region 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 Mediterranean -35.6 to +55.1 -52.6 to +38.3 -61.0 - +6.2 Caribbean -14.2 to +13.7 -36.3 to +34.2 -49.3 - +28.9 Indian Ocean -5.4 to +6.0 -6.9 to +12.4 -9.8 - +14.7 Northern Pacific -6.3 to +9.1 -19.2 to +21.3 -2.7 - +25.8 Southern Pacific -3. 9 to +3.4 -8.23 to +6.7 -14.0 -+14.6

5. Key Impacts: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report • Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate (High confidence) • inundation, • storm • surge, • Erosion, • other coastal hazards • In theCaribbean and Pacific islands, more than 50%of the population livewithin 1.5 km of the shore. • International airports, roads and capital cities in the small islands of are sited along the coast. • Sea-level rise will threaten vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.

6. Key Impacts: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report • There is strong evidence that under most climate change scenarios, water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised (very high confidence). • New studies confirm previous findings that the effects of Climate change is likely to heavily impact coral reefs, fisheries and other marine-based resources (high confidence). • On some islands, especially those at higher latitudes, warming has already led to the replacement of some local species (high confidence).

7. Key Impacts: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report • It is very likely that subsistence and commercial agriculture on small islands will be adversely affected by climate change (high confidence). • New studies confirm previous findings that the effects of climate change on tourism are likely to be direct and indirect, and largely negative (high confidence). • There is growing concern that global climate change is likely to impact human health, mostly in adverse ways (medium confidence).

8. Hurricane Ivan struck Grenada on 7 September 2004: Some key impacts: • 28 people killed, • overall damages calculated at twice the GDP, • 90% of housing stock damaged; 90% of guest rooms in the tourism sector damaged or destroyed, equivalent to approximately 29% GDP, • losses in telecommunications equivalent to 13% GDP, • damage to schools and education infrastructure equivalent to 20% GDP, • losses in agricultural sector equivalent to 10% GDP, • damage to eco-tourism resulting in 60% job losses in sub-sector. Source: OECS (2004), modified from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

9. What does this have to do with National Communications? The Initial National Communication (INC) process was important because: • The INC was the first effort to summarize climate information relating to GHG emissions and its key vulnerabilities • The INC has generated awareness about Climate Change issues and helped catalyze awareness of climate change issues • The INC was the first point of reference for many development partners to support CC mitigation and adaptation activities in a country

10. BUT: The focus was seen on ‘International Convention reporting’ – Opportunities to channel information into non-environmental policy processes were lost The INC was conducted by technical experts, with limited participation of other stakeholders from public and private sectors Assessments and language was academic in formats not very helpful to policy makers

11. Second National Communications (SNC): A second opportunity! • Climate Change is more than environmental reporting – the SNC process is relevant for all policy segments • The SNC is a strategic policy support tool to highlight and communicate Climate Change priorities • Producing an SNC document not the end point. SNC information can be used to map socio-economic vulnerabilities, understand economic impacts of CC and frame follow-up measures

12. SNC should be a vehicle to inform and facilitate: • Institutional positions and responses to climate change issues • Continued analysis and review of climate data to stay up-to-date on vulnerability dynamics • Inter-ministerial dialogue to address primary climate change concerns in national priorities • Integration of climate risk reduction into sectoral and development planning

13. How can countries make full use of SNC potential? • Ensure that the studies commissioned by the SNC team address relevant policy questions 2) Ensure that the SNC does not work in isolation in the Environment Department. Establish a platform to share SNC information with other departments. 3) Make sure the mitigation and adaptation studies of the SNC deliver information that is suitable for the definition of follow-up measures (e.g. further assessments, project formulation, fundraising)

14. How can countries make full use of SNC potential? (cont.) 4) Make sure the SNC highlights critical short-term and long-term policy challenges and proposes some options for priority sectors 5) Make sure the SNC process picks up existing capacity gaps and opportunities in the country to understand, analyze and address Climate Change issues 6) Make sure SNC work is complemented with targeted awareness and communication actions for public/private/policy stakeholders

15. Next steps • Understanding the potential of SNC to provide policy inputs • Actively encouraging involvement and supporting input by relevant government institutions • Helping to make the SNC better visible • Having a concrete follow-up for the SNC in mind • Ensuring that all mitigation and adaptation assessments in the SNC maintaining a human focus

16. Leveraging National Communications - Summary 1. National Communications: process and outputs Informed allocation of public / private financing to resilient and low-carbon economic growth CC Adaptation and mitigation priorities identified Project lessons utilized in national / sector plans 2. CC Adaptation and Mitigation platforms, plans and strategies Priority CC projects identified Institutional partnerships developed & strengthened 3. Adaptation financing and carbon financing options explored to undertake priority measures Project lessons captured and analyzed (M&E) Priority CC projects financed

17. Discussion • How can GEF focal points help in making the SNC more relevant to policy making? • What role can GEF Focal Points play in linking priorities that emerge from National Communications with other GEF programming?