ENSEMBLES Meetings RT3 Copenhagen, RT4/RT5 Paris, February 2005

1. ENSEMBLES Meetings RT3 Copenhagen, RT4/RT5 Paris, February 2005 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse, University of Liverpool - WP6.3 (A.P.Morse@liv.ac.uk) Colin Prentice, University of Bristol - WP6.1 (Colin.Prentice@bristol.ac.uk) Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SKYE) - WP6.2 (tim.carter@ymparisto.fi) RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

2. WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks. Leader: UNIVBRIS Participants: UREADMM, PIK, ULUND, METO-HC, CNRS-IPSL WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change Leader: SYKE, UEA Participants: UREADMM, ULUND, UKOELN, NOA, DISAT, PAS, FMI, SMHI, UNIK, DIAS WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Leader: UNILIV. Participants: UREADMM, ARPA-SIM, JRC-IPSC, METEOSWISS, LSE, FAO, WINFORMATICS, IRI, EDF, DWD. 27 partners & 11 countries - total 5 year budget €1,962,000 RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

3. The end-to-end approach the role of impacts/application partners Consultation with impacts groups from the conception of the project and input to ongoing decision making Defining fields and interval for data archiving (within reason) Each impact or application (model) will have a required level of skill from the probabilistic driving variables to make forecasts of economic value Therefore impacts/application users will define skill targets for probabilistic forecasting systems and carry out an important part of the final validation Impacts/application partners should develop their models, where possible, to make use of ‘skill-in-hand’ of current probabilistic seasonal forecasting systems RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

4. RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

5. RT6 Primary Areas of Investigation 6.1 The integration of process models of impacts on the natural and managed global environment into Earth System Models. 6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change. 6.3 Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting. RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

6. RT6 Primary Objectives O6.a: Integrate impact process models ENSEMBLES Earth System Models. O6.b: Impact models to describe system sensitivities through critical thresholds. O6.c: Link impact models to ENSEMBLES probabilistic scenarios for risk-based estimates critical thresholds exceedance during 21st century. O6.d: Impact models and new ENSEMBLES climate scenarios – understand impacts of extremes. O6.e: Drive impact models with ENSEMBLES ESM and RCM output to give impacts forecasts at seasonal-to-decadal scale timescales at regional scales. RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

7. Scientific/Technical Questions • Downscaling and bias correction implementation for impact models integration within EPS • Maximizing skill of the ensemble forecast driven application models e.g. role of ensemble dressing of EPS? • What level of forecast skill is required make a skilful impact model forecast? • Attempt to quantify the sensitivity of agriculture, ecosystems and hydrology to future climate change in terms of thresholds • Can we estimate the probability of exceeding these thresholds? • Incorporation of probabilistic scenarios of climate change into probabilistic impact analyses. • Impacts of extreme events compared with impacts of more frequent less extreme events • -tested for a range of sectors and activities. • Impacts of combined biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks within the EPS RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

8. Issues and Linkages arising within RT6 • Timely and easy access to data – already in discussion RT1, RT2a, RT2b, RT3 and RT5 • Effective use of downscaling tools – already in discussion with RT2B, RT3 and RT2a • RT5 for validation – with WP6.3 and WP5.5 directly linked • Interest in RT4 findings • RT7 economic impacts RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

9. RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

10. WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks. Work towards fully integrated European- and global-scale assessments of the impacts of changes in CO2 and climate on vegetation structure, function and productivity, forest and arable crop productivity, terrestrial carbon cycling and freshwater supply Consider the potential for feedbacks from these changes to the atmosphere and climate. 18 month activity To set up the input data Model developments for (a) global implementation of managed forests, and (b) global implementation of crops. Perform first set of offline model runs for the recent past, present and future. RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

11. WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change. Five Year Overview Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change. Task 6.2.a Response surfaces and impact thresholds. Task 6.2.b Scenario impacts and risk assessment Task 6.2.c Evaluating the impacts of extreme events. 18 month plan first phase of testing climate extremes models – wind, flood, drought etc. Preparation of impact response surfaces for climate change scenarios against baseline data RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

12. 9 RCMs ~50km … A22 RCMs ~25km … A2 3 RCMs ~50km … B2 2 GCMs RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

13. WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales. * Activity starting in first 18 months Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting. Closely tied to WP5.5 – Tier-1, Tier-2 and Tier-3 validation Development of Integration Methodology includes downscaling and bias correction (working with other RTs) Downscaling and bias correction for ensemble hindcasts* 18 month activity Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models within an EPS (DEMETER)* 18 month activity Assessment of GCM vs. RCM driven seasonal-to-decadal application models. Gaining the maximum skill from an EPS seasonal-to-decadal scale integration Quantification of EPS skill requirements at seasonal-to-decadal timescales for application models. RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings

14. WP6.3 Work of Marletto et al. ARPA Figures are discussed by Morse et al. 2004, CLIVAR Exchanges and further details in separate papers in forthcoming Tellus DEMETER special issue RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings Work of Morse et al. Liverpool

15. Issues and Linkages arising within RT6 • Timely and easy access to data – already in discussion RT1, RT2a, RT2b, RT3 and RT5 • Effective use of downscaling tools – already in discussion with RT2B, RT3 and RT2a • RT5 for validation – with WP6.3 and WP5.5 directly linked • Interest in RT4 findings • RT7 economic impacts RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings