VERITE: Conference on Business Intelligence

1. VERITE: Conference on Business Intelligence „For Intelligent Organizations: methods and tools of Business Intelligence“ 16th October 2003 in Vitoria, Basque Country Spain

2. The Role of foresight in a new regionalised innovation policySession D: BI and policies Susanne Jakobs and Michael Guth, ZENIT GmbH, Germany

3. NRW Structural change, innovation policy and the role of foresight The case of Nordrhein-Westfalen (Germany) as an example for regions which are facing severe industrial structural change VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

4. NRW The regional background • 18 million inhabitants (82 million in Germany) • NRW’s industrial core region is the so called ruhr area (Ruhrgebiet) VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

5. Position 14 Position 19 Position 16 459.6 418.7 411.5 Figures: billion Euro, as of 2001 346.1 300.1 276.2 254.2 234.6 210.7 195.0 193.5 184.7 NRW Nether- lands Australia Russia Argentina Switzer- land Belgium Sweden Austria Poland Saudi Arabia Norway NRW Position 14 in the world‘s GDP-ranking VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

6. NRW - the ruhr area The ruhr area: For a good century the driver for economic growth and prosperity based on coal and steel VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

7. NRW - the ruhr area The ruhr area: Since the late 1950ies a region facing problems of structural change with today insufficient and under average growth rates and high unemployment: • average NRW 04/03 9.3 % • average ruhr area 04/02 11.9 % • highest district ruhr area 04/02 17.8 % VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

8. Standard policy; backward orientation Regionalised structural policy, still past orientated Strengthening the strength Future orientated cluster approach Regionalisation, SME, Innovation & TT infrastructures Infrastructural endowment & emprovemt of environmt Co-financing from EU structural funds Future of SFs? Protectionism 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Policy Evaluation From protectionism towards future orientated regional fields of competence VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

9. NRW Regionalised structural policy (RSP) • 15 economic regions within NRW • framework for territorial development and social dialogue • regional co-operation in so-called regional conferences • regional development plans • prioritisation of major projects of structural importance VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

10. NRW Regionalised structural policy (RSP) Results • RSP turned out to be an efficient tool concerning the regional allocation of public funds • New forms of active participation of relevant actors were introduced • Regional know-how and capacities were mobilised However ..... VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

11. Challenges Regionalised structural policy (RSP) • Problem pressure remaining in the regions • Systematic deficits became evident: past orientation, limited partnerships, lack of future vision • New challenges occurring: globalisation, innovation and competitive pressure, Eastern enlargement of EU, public budget deficits leading to reduced budgets for structural policies • Introduction of a new future orientated policy approach: Competence fields VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

12. Challenges From RSP to competence fields (CF) • Shift from “overcoming weaknesses” towards strengthening the strengths • From backward looking towards future orientation VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

13. Challenges What‘s a competence field (CF) • regional networks based on voluntary co-operation in a specific thematic field of economic relevance • the thematic focus is based on existing industrial thematic strengths • covering major steps in the value adding chain • high degree of interaction and communication amongst the actors VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

14. Challenges The role of foresight in CFs • Can FS be a useful tool to develop and to conduct a competence field orientated regional policy in NRW ? • Are there lessons to take into account from the regionalised structural policy approach ? VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

15. Challenges Lessons from RSP • The RSP approach has striking similarities with FOREN´s1 definition of FS: • anticipation • participation • networking • vision building • action 1FOREN is a foresight project of the European Commission and the Joint Research Centre IPTS VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

16. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Regionalisation · with the ZIN regions a regional layer below Länder level was established ·  randomised regional definition ·  weak regional identification ·  > 10 years experience in regionalisation ZIN regions as starting point for more adequate regional definition ·   intra regional conflicts deteriorate the process Anticipation ·   not relevant as anticipation was no element within RSP ·   concrete actions/ projects may not meet regional needs ·   not relevant as anticipation was no element within RSP ·   decision do not gain in quality  this will be perceived by the actors through weak results  erosion of process Participation ·   new forms of active participation introduced by RSP ·   rather broad partnership ·   no firms, no citizens! ·   de facto political pressure from the Land on the regions to participate ·   > 10 years experience with participative approaches ·   exclusion of firms and citizens reduces "relevance" of the exercise ·   also: limited awareness and visibility of the exercise FS elements in RSP (1/2) Challenges VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

17. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Networks ·   new forms of networks were established ·   new types of interaction emerged ·   rather low frequency of meetings ·   latent lines of conflict between the partners ·   even under weak framework conditions good results (new and intensified dialogue) were yielded ·   the whole approach may fall asleep in certain regions ·   high degree of frustration for those motivated Visionbuilding ·   conduction of regional socio-economic SWOT analysis ·   elaboration of regional development plans ·   weak up-dating of regional analysis ·   plans were pre-determined by policy strategies of the Land ·   > 10 years of experience to be exploited ·   lack of "shared" vision leads to deficits in decision making ("wrong" projects, inadequate bundle of measures etc.) Action ·   RSP's objective was to improve present day's policy decisions ·   plans were pre-determined by policy strategies of the Land ·   identified weak­ness of RSP in that respect is the main driver for developing new and more adequate policy concepts ·   wrong projects ·   inadequate conceptions FS elements in RSP (2/2) Challenges VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

18. Challenges Competence Fields + Foresight = Prosperity ? • FS exercises help industrial regions to build up new structures for communication and interaction amongst the actors • RF thus directly contributes to the emergence of regional innovation and learning systems (RILS); regional learning and innovation is the basis for future prosperity and growth VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

19. Challenges What needs to be done in NRW • Adequate definition of the territory • Future intelligence gathering is necessary – but regional authorities do not like it  convince them • A minimum devolution of power is necessary • Broad network (no exclusion of the businesses) • Vision building must be regarded as a process VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

20. Challenges Some general considerations (1/2) • Old industrial regions generally suffer from a decline in previously pre-dominant economic activities in the region  unemployment, insufficient growth, etc. • Need to identify alternative income and employment opportunities as a policy challenge • In the Knowledge economy innovation performance and economic prosperity increasingly depend on the regions' capacity to successfully organise learning processes VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

21. Challenges Some general considerations (2/2) • The interaction induced by RF exercises is very similar to both learning and innovation processes • RF fertilises learning and innovation and vice versa • Policy should thus increasingly exploit synergies between regional innovation systems and FS • RF provides particular advantages for Eastern European Candidate Countries with weak meso institutions and non-existing regional innovation systems VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

22. Possibilities Eastern Europe and Foresight opportunities • Problem of Eastern Europe: virtual non-emergence of regional innovations systems • Foresight (FS) provides the potential to develop joint visions for new regional innovations systems in broad partnerships • FS creates the important link between University and Industry • Networking structures and participation assure a policy with a high degree of transparency VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain

23. Thank you very much for your attention! VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain