Planning for the 2008/2010 Ozone Air Quality Standards

1. Planning for the 2008/2010 Ozone Air Quality Standards WESTAR Fall Business Meeting Portland, Oregon ~ September 29, 2010 Corky Martinkovic, Planning Supervisor Air Quality Division ~ Arizona DEQ

2. Proposed O3 Standards • In January 2010 EPA proposed different primary and secondary standards than those set in 2008 (75 FR 2938) • 8-Hour Primary Standard: within the range of 0.060 to 0.070 parts per million (ppm) • Cumulative Seasonal Secondary Standard: within the range of 7 to 15 ppm-hours

3. Planning for New O3 Standards • Boundary Recommendations/Designations • CAA Section 110(a)(2) "infrastructure" State Implementation Plans (SIP) • Nonattainment area SIPs

4. Boundary Recommendations • EPA requires States to submit designation recommendations by the following proposed deadlines: • For the Primary Standard by January 7, 2011 [?] • For the Secondary Standard by January 7, 2011, or August 31, 2011 [?] • EPA will announce the final NAAQS and regulatory timeline late October 2010 • The process is accelerated because it is a reconsideration of the 2008 standard and WESTAR has sent EPA comments

6. Boundary Recommendations • Under CAA 107 States must recommend areas as: • Nonattainment – areas that are violating the new NAAQS and nearby contributing areas • Attainment – areas that meet the NAAQS • Unclassifiable – areas with insufficient information • For areas with a violating monitor the Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) or county boundary is the “Starting Point” for the nonattainment area boundary

7. Boundary Recommendations • States may recommend different nonattainment area boundaries based on the evaluation of 9 Factors found in EPA guidance: • Air quality data • Emission sources, locations & contribution to O3 • Population density and degree of urbanization • Traffic and commuting patterns • Growth rates and patterns • Meteorology (weather/transport patterns) • Geography/topography • Jurisdictional boundaries • Level of control of emission sources

8. Primary Standard Design Values (ppm)2007–2009

9. Proposed Primary O3 Standard • Selection of the Primary Standard has Significant Impacts • 2007-2009 Monitored Violations of 0.07 ppm • Gila County (0.075 ppm) • La Paz County (0.072 ppm) • Maricopa County (0.076 ppm) • Pima County (0.071 ppm) • Pinal County (0.075 ppm) • Yuma County (0.072 ppm)

10. Proposed Primary O3 Standard • 2007-2009 Monitored violations of 0.065 ppm • Cochise County (0.066 ppm) • Coconino County (0.070 ppm) • Navajo County (0.067 ppm) • Yavapai County? (0.065 ppm) • 9 or 10 of 15 Counties with monitored violations of potential ozone standards • Counties that don’t violate don’t have monitors • Apache (East/Northeast AZ) • Graham (Southeast AZ) • Greenlee (Southeast AZ) • Mohave (Northwest AZ) • Santa Cruz (South-central AZ)

11. Proposed Secondary Standard Design Values (ppm-hrs)2007 - 2009

12. Proposed Secondary O3 Standard • 6 of 15 Counties violate proposed 15 ppm-hrs • 2007-2009 Monitored Violations (ppm-hrs) • Coconino County (17) • Gila County (20) • La Paz County (20) • Maricopa County (19) • Pima County (16) • Pinal County (21)

13. What Arizona is currently doing for each factor: • Air quality data • Starting with 0.070 assumption, looking at monitoring data for Maricopa (Phx-Pinal-Gila), Pima (Tucson), Yuma and La Paz • Looking at design values for 07 08 09 and 08 09 10 data years • Issues: data completeness and timing since 2010 data not yet QA/QC’d

14. (2) Emission sources, location, and contribution to ozone • Gathering source types and mapping some locations using NEI data (2005) • Along with meteorology factor, confirming that there are three types of ozone contribution: local, transport, and complex combinations of local and transport • Issues: have state sources but not sure of all sources or all locations, and will get harder if standard is lower

15. (3) Population density and degree of urbanization, (4) Traffic and commuting patterns and (5) Growth rate and patterns • Checking census data and other sources, including other planning associations’ data • Issues: Data stretches over time period where things have changed dramatically, and commuting patterns may involve out-of-state activities near violating monitors (i.e., capturing human activities, trends, effects)

16. (6) Meteorology and (7) Geography, topography • Finished draft state-wide met analysis • Partially done with geography and topo analysis as well as around monitored area • Issues: have to do more refined analysis for chosen counties, and this could be for even more counties if standard is lower than 0.070; but not sure our analyses will jive with EPA’s (e.g., no time for states to do dispersion modeling)

17. (8) Jurisdictional boundaries • Arizona has complex land ownership, authority or delegation situations as well as rural areas with strong local concerns • Reviewing all existing MOUs; will revise where necessary and may create agreements for new areas • Issues: Numerous and unknown until more information on implementation

18. (9) Level of control of emission sources • Checking on control programs for presumptive areas at all levels • Some controls are or will need to be beyond state and local authority, especially those addressing transport, mobile, and sources outside the states regulatory scope; ditto interstate • Issues: accounting for new source growth, portables, low or uncontrolled sources

19. Outreach • Clean Air Act requirements • Web postings; fact sheets and FAQs • Stakeholder meetings • 2008 Ozone boundary recommendation; “Boundaries R AZ” • Questions already being asked: what controls required and where for which standard (Implementation? Classification? Secondary?)

20. Contact Information • Corky Martinkovic dam@azdeq.gov 602.771.2372 • Bruce Friedl bjf@azdeq.gov 602.771-2259 • http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/plan/ozone.html