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T-NAWDEX T HORPEX - N orth A tlantic W aveguide and D ownstream Impact Ex periment

T-NAWDEX T HORPEX - N orth A tlantic W aveguide and D ownstream Impact Ex periment. address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by different processes and the disturbances’ subsequent downstream evolution

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T-NAWDEX T HORPEX - N orth A tlantic W aveguide and D ownstream Impact Ex periment

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  1. T-NAWDEX THORPEX- North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment • address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by different processes and the disturbances’ subsequent downstream evolution • study of the downstream impacts of the waveguide disturbances over Europe, the Mediterranean, and northern Africa proposed by the working group Predictability and Dynamical Processes for the European THORPEX Science Plan suggested to be performed in 2011/2012 in conjunction with HYMEX 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  2. T-NAWDEX: Forecast Errors PV@320K on January 16, 2002 Analysis Model FC96 Model - Analysis Marco Didone, ETH Zürich courtesy of H. Davies Marco Didone, ETH Zürich courtesy of H. Davies 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  3. T-NAWDEX: Forecast Errors 2pvu isoline: analysis, forecast PV distribution “Fcst-Analysis” field at 320 K. for a 72hrs forecast to 10 Oct. 2001 (ECMWF IFS T511 model). Pertinent questions: Is the difference pattern typical, and does it persist in today’s upgraded prediction suites? Is the analysis field itself likely to be inadequate? Is the difference dynamically significant and/or operationally important? (iv) What is the causes of the difference ? (v) How can it be rectified ? 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008 (courtesy of Huw Davies)

  4. “Forecast -Analysis” fields for forecasts of different time-spans FC48 FC72 FC96 • For a specific forecast time the • fields have a similar spatial structure • Systematic difference in • representing synoptic development Marco Didone, ETH Zürich courtesy of H. Davies 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  5. Olivia Martius, Alexia Massacancd, ETH Zürich Heavy precipitation events on the Alpine south-side Distinctive mesoscale topography Events of Alpine heavy precipitation Event - 6d - 12d 180 W 180 E Downstream wave-breaking resulting in a PV-streamer Composite of preceeding Hovmöller trace 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  6. Greenland Tip Jet - Wind Lidar observation FL200 z~6.0 km MODIS (Aqua) 14:55 UTC 24 November 2003 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  7. South North Horizontal Wind Speed - Wind Lidar (One Scanner Revolution) 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  8. South North Horizontal Wind Speed - LIDAR-ECMWF 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  9. ? Question (ii): Is the analysis field itself likely to be inadequate ? PV distribution on 310 K surface Error > 15 m/s Aircraft measurements Wind speed ECMWF NCEP Wind direction Sandro Buss,ETH Zürich courtesy of H. Davies Flight altitude & height of 310K surface 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  10. Motivation for T-NAWDEX • Errors in medium range forecasts for Europe mainly due to a small number of 'busts', e. g. from ET, DRW (Cardinali/Buizza) • There are systematic patterns of forecast errors in extratropical cyclones, e. g. the downstream side of the trough in developing cyclones should be sharper (Davies) • Are these deviations potentially associated with latent heat release, the most poorly understood/modelled part of the dynamics? • Kilometer-resolution models appear to dramatically better, at least at short • range (MAP D-PHASE), but need to be evaluated for THORPEX timescales • Comparison with research aircraft shows even analysis faulty • (resolution and/or diabatic effects?), so research measurements required • Advanced observing technologies, (air-, spaceborne platforms, active/passive remote sensing, in-situ sensors, ...) are now well-established and can be deployed 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  11. Scientific Objects of T-NAWDEX Triggering of waveguide disturbances by different processes Subsequent downstream evolution of the disturbances, esp. diabatic effects Downstream impacts of the waveguide disturbances over Europe, the Mediterranean and northern Africa. e.g. cooperation with HYMEX 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  12. T-NAWDEX Planning • Use HALO-Demonstration Mission HALO-THORPEX • as nucleus for field phase Savannah, Georgia, USA October, 22 2008 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  13. Aims of HALO-THORPEX - demonstrate the possibility of simultaneous airborne remote sensing observations of wind, water vapor and temperature from the lower stratosphere to the boundary layer - investigate the three-dimensional water vapor field and dynamical structures of streamers and their relationship to extreme precipitation events - perform HALO flights to test targeting observing strategies to improve the predictive skill of high-impact weather events over Europe 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  14. T-NAWDEX Planning (2) Workshop 19/20 February 2009 in Erding/Germany (close to MUC) (a) Formulation of the Science Plan - scientific aims and questions - methods to address the questions (theoretical, numerical, experimental) - responsible persons (b) Implementation Plan (c) National/International Cooperation and fund raising 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  15. 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  16. 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  17. HALO-THORPEX A 50 h Demonstration Mission of the German HALO Aircraft planned for autumn 2010 or 2011 Andreas Dörnbrack, Gerhard Ehret, Ulrich Schumann DLR Oberpfaffenhofen Volker Wulfmeyer, Andreas Behrendt, Hans-Stefan Bauer Universität Hohenheim Sarah Jones Universität Karlsruhe/Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  18. Instruments • - 1.6 m scanning Doppler Wind Lidar (DLR, IPA) • - 4 wavelength water vapor DIAL (DLR, IPA) • Basic Meteorology (DLR, FB) • Dropwinde sondes (DLR, Uni/FZ Karlsruhe) • Microwave Temperature Profiler (DLR) • Scanning rotational Raman Lidar (Uni Hohenheim) 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

  19. THORPEX interest for HYMEX T-NAWDEX - upstream conditions, global models, TIGGE, observing strategies international meteorological links: Europe, North America, Africa HYMEX interest for THORPEX HYMEX - mesoscale and local measurements, high resolution modeling and data assimilation SERA - end to end trial, hydrology, end users THORPEX-HYMEX Links 7th Session of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee WMO Headquarters, Geneva, 19 November 2008

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