French contribution to T-NAWDEX

1. French contribution to T-NAWDEX G. Rivière, P. Arbogast CNRM-GAME, CNRS & Météo-France Karlsruhe, 03/20/2013

2. French teams / labs involved in T-NAWDEX topics • CNRM-GAME (Joint lab between Météo-France and CNRS) • Dynamical synoptic meteorology (P. Arbogast, G. Rivière, A. Joly, M. Drouard, B. Coronel) • Adaptive observations / assimilation (N. Fourrié, A. Doerenbecher) • Ensemble prediction (C. Labadie, P. Cebron, B. Joly) • Laboratoire d’aérologie • Mesoscale group (E. Richard, J-P. Chaboureau, D. Lambert, S. Fresnay) • Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique • Mesoscale and synoptic meteorology (C. Claud, G. Lapeyre)

3. CNRS-INSU project: EPIGONE (Excitation, propagation and impact of the North Atlantic waveguide over Europe, 2010-2012). Recent activities Analysis of hurricane Helene (use of very-high resol NH model over the whole Atlantic) Winter storm case studies using operational forecast model Idealized case study Storm Xynthia • 3 PhDs: • Trajectory and deepening of extratropical storms (L. Oruba) • Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (F. Pantillon) • Rossby wave breaking and Atlantic weather regime transitions (C. Michel)

4. DYNASTIE (DYNamics of the Atlantic Storm-Track and its Impact over Europe) ; submitted to ANR; 3 years (2014-2016); requested funds: 340 k€. Current activities and near future • Main objectives: • To analyze the dynamics and predictability of the North Atlantic waveguide from various numerical approaches • To prepare scientific questions to address during T-NAWDEX

5. Potential airborne measurements: Falcon 20 (mid- to upper troposphere) • Flying performances: • Usual cruising speed : 150 m/s (min 82m/s max 254 m/s) • Max. endurance: 5 h • Max range: 4100 km • Ceiling: 42 000 ft (12000 m) Height (km) • Possible measurements: • Radar RASTA reflectivity • (IWC, droplet size) • Lidar « retrodiffusion » (semi-transparent cloud, BL) • Drop sonde launching (profiles of T, p, hum, u, v, w) Time (h)

6. Potential airborne measurements: ATR 42 (low to mid-troposphere • Flying performances: • Usual cruising speed : 100m/s (min 70m/s max 134 m/s) • Max. endurance: 6 h • Max range at 4000m: 3000km • Ceiling: 25000 ft (7500 m) • Examples of measurements: • In-situ microphysics (cloud liquid water content, droplet size) • Turbulence (heat fluxes, momentum flux)

7. Aeroclipper: Need of convergent winds to attract the balloon into the system of interest (first success for a tropical cyclone, Vasco, 2007). Sampling at 50m. French contribution to measurements: Boundary-layer Balloons Usefulness for sampling starting regions of warm conveyor belts in the boundary layer ?

8. Météo-France forecast products: deterministic forecasts of the global model Web site dedicated to the DIAMET field campaign Deterministic forecast from a global model (ARPEGE) Probable resolution in 2016: 7 km over Western Europe

9. Météo-France forecast products: ensemble forecast Ensemble forecast from the global ARPEGE model (35 members; cyclone trajectories) Probable resolution in 2016: ~10 km over Western Europe

10. Microwave humidity sounder from IASI Météo-France forecast products: satellite data inversion Relative humidity satellite retrieval pressure latitude Relative humidity analysis pressure longitude longitude

11. Sensitivity to PV anomalies on real time. Other potential forecast products Example of winter storm Klaus: tropopause height Operational forecast Observations Modified forecast Wind speed at 10m

12. Boundary-layer balloons potentially useful for ETs Choice of the period (Fall, winter ?). • Aircrafts with a lesser range  more adapted for downstream impact over Europe (sting jets ?) • funding issues: Balloons (CNES), aircrafts (ANR?, FP7-8) ? Concluding remarks / questions