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Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet

Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet. Memphis Area SAS User’s Group February 18, 2005 Tom Nunnikhoven International Paper, Memphis Business Modeling & Optimization Services (901)419-7564. Topics. Uncoated Free Sheet – What it is Historical Demand Industry Segments

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Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet

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  1. Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet Memphis Area SAS User’s Group February 18, 2005 Tom Nunnikhoven International Paper, Memphis Business Modeling & Optimization Services (901)419-7564

  2. Topics • Uncoated Free Sheet – What it is • Historical Demand • Industry Segments • Consumption Patterns and Forecasts by Segment • UFS Forecast for 2003 and Results

  3. UFS Domestic Supply Average Rates of Change

  4. Uncoated Free Sheet Industry Segments • Printing • Envelope • Business • Forms • Tablet • Other

  5. Prospects Differ Greatly Between Segments … -

  6. Segments Have Consistent Relationships with U.S. Economic Metrics

  7. Method for Forecasting UFS • For each segment • Model consumption rate per unit • Project the U.S. economy component • Project the segment demand based on this

  8. Total UFS Domestic Supply is Projected from the Six Segments Combined

  9. Results • Change in UFS Domestic Supply, 2003 • Projected: -1.1% • Actual: -0.9% • Results for 2004: • Projected: -0.7% • Actual: +0.3%

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