Cross-country paper on the theme of Environment

1. Cross-country paper on the theme of Environment World Conference on South Asia: Democracy, Sustainable Development and Peace

2. Regional Overview Physical Features Social and Cultural Patterns Economy

3. Physical Features • South Asia houses some of the world’s largest river systems • Fresh water: Most important natural resource shared between nations • Significant variation in spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall

4. Social and Cultural Patterns • Birthplace of popular socio-cultural groups, shelter for immigrants. • Diversity in terms of religion, language, ethnicity, traditions, values, culture and the way of life. • Out of the 7 Nations, two are predominantly Hindu, four are predominantly Muslim, two are predominantly Buddhist • The diversity demands a multifaceted approach to look at development and the various challenges

5. Economy Figure: share of different sector on South Asian economy and their growth rate Source: ADB 2010

6. Key Environmental Issues Land Degradation Water Stress Transboundary water resources management

7. Land Degradation Statistics of land degradation for the south Asian countries Source: Bai ZG 2008

8. Land Degradation • Primary Drivers: • Poor Agricultural Practices: intensive use of chemical fertilizers, non-arable agriculture, increasing livestock population • Increase in Irrigation: leads to water logging and top soil erosion and over extraction of water renders the land in the downstream saline • Poor policy regime: imposition of taxes/subsidies has facilitated land degradation at certain places • Industrialization and deforestation

9. Water Stress Statistics for water resources for the GBM and Indus basins Source: Compiled from MS Babel, S M Wahid 2009

10. Transboundary water resources management • Issues in the GBM Basin can be divided into three broad categories: • sharing of river waters • cooperative development of water resources • sharing of data and information on common rivers to facilitate flood forecasting and water quality control • Conflicting interests must be resolved by the integrated approach towards the management of transboundary water resources

11. Climate Change and South Asia Observed Climate Change Future Impacts

12. Observed Climate Change Source: Cruz et al. 2007

13. Future Impacts • Warming would be significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia (IPCC 2007 ) • Increase in occurrence of extreme weather events is projected in South Asia(Lal 2003) • Inter-annual variability of daily precipitation would increase in the Asian summer monsoon (Lal et al. 2000; Giorgi and Bi 2005). • By 2050, the annual runoff in the Brahmaputra is projected to decline by 14 percent and the Indus by 27 percent (IPCC 2001).

14. Challenges in key sectors Water Agriculture and Food Security Health Social Issues including population dislocation

15. Water • The key challenge would be to balance variable water supplies with accelerating water demands. Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas Contd….

16. Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas (Contd.) Contd….

17. Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas (Contd.) Source: SARSDD 2009

18. Agriculture and Food Security • The changing hydrological characteristics of the extreme events will affect agricultural production • Sea-level rise would trigger inundation and changes in the sediment balance and salinity profile of coastal areas • The Terrai plains, which constitute 43% of the total cultivated land, would be severely impacted by recurring natural disasters. • The economy of Nepal where agriculture employs 80% of the population will be badly hit • Sri Lanka’s rice output would be reduced by 5.91% with a temperature increase of 0.5°C.

19. Agriculture and Food Security Estimates of Climate change related Impacts on Agricultural Production by 2080 Source: Cline 2007

20. Health • Key determinants of health: clean air and water, disease vectors, and the availability of food would be impacted • Increase in the frequency of floods would have significant direct and induced health impacts. • Induced health impacts pose the greatest harm: major portions of South Asia have limited access to clean water and sanitation • Increases in diarrheal disease, cholera, dysentery, and typhoid are of specific concern (Morgan, O., M. Ahern, and S. Cairncross. 2005)

21. Social Issues including population dislocation • Future changes in precipitation, sea level, glacial cover, and incidence of extreme events could stall the progress made in achieving the MDGs • The rural poor whose livelihoods are based on agriculture will be directly impacted • Households dependent upon pastoral lands for livelihoods would be the worst hit • Climate change may render about 125 million migrants, comprising about 75 million from Bangladesh and the remaining from densely populated coastal regions as well as other vulnerable parts of India homeless by the end of this century (S.C. Rajan, 2008).

22. Social Issues including population dislocation Summary of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) statistics for countries in South Asia Source: http://sedac.ciesin.org, accessed on 27/12/2010

23. Devising a framework for regional Co-operation on Adaptation Co-operation framework on environmental issues Shortcomings Lessons to be learnt

24. Co-operation framework on environmental issues • Three intergovernmental organizations: • South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) • South Asia Cooperative Environment Programme (SACEP) • International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) • Periodic meetings of the SAARC Environment Ministers have been held to enhance regional cooperation

25. Shortcomings • Environmental issues have occupied an important position in SAARC summits but no commensurate outcomes • Mutual differences between the member states was acknowledged during the 16th summit • Projects have been identified, but implementation is slow - visible outputs are yet to be seen from the Coastal Zone management Centre in Maldives (2005) and the Forestry centre in Bhutan (2008)

26. Lessons to be learnt • A clear strategy highlighting the possible areas of co-operation among the SAARC countries is required. • Measurable indicators to evaluate the goals should be initiated • The existing regional centresshouldensure the completion of agreed initiatives • Initiatives should be made broad-based - professionals, the business community and the civil society must be included

27. Adaptation strategies for key sectors Water Agriculture and Food Security Health and Social Development

28. Water • Widening the knowledge base in terms of technology and best practices • TERI has been endorsed as the Knowledge Hub for Water and Climate Change Adaptation in South Asia • Integrated water resource management (IWRM) • Conjunctive use and management of surface and groundwater • The use of indigenous knowledge for water management • Risk Management capacity should be enhanced • Improving Governance and facilitating Finance

29. Agriculture and Food Security • Integration of land use policies with policies on forest and water management • Practicing Organic Agriculture • Conserving Biodiversity • National food security programmes should focus on creating food grains buffer stock • Strengthening food grain distribution • Institutionalising regional food security programmes • Formulation and implementation of appropriate policies • Improving Agricultural productivity

30. Health and Social Development Action Matrix for Climate Change in South Asia Source: SARSDD 2009

31. References ADB 2010Asia Development Outlook 2010Asian Development Bank Bai ZG 2008Global assessment of land degradation and improvement. 1. Identification by remote sensing. Report 2008/01 Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, Anokhin Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda Y, Jafari M, Li C, Huu N (2007) Asia. Climate change, 2007, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 469–506 Giorgi F, Bi X (2005) Regional changes in surface climate interannual variability for the 21st century from ensembles of global model simulations.Geophys Res Lett 32:L13701. doi:10.1029/2005GL023002 IPCC. 2001. Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2001. Summary for Policymakers.Wembley, United Kingdom, September 24–29. IPCC 2007Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Quin D, Manning M, Chen X, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor HL, Miller M (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–996

32. Contd… Lal M, Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2000) Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability. Reg Environ Change 1:163–179 Lal M (2003) Global climate change: India’s monsoon and its variability.J Environ Stud Policy 6:1–34 Morgan, O., M. Ahern, and S. Cairncross. 2005. Revisiting the Tsunami: Health Consequences of Flooding.PLoS Medicine 2, no. 6: 491–93. MS Babel, SM Wahid 2009Freshwater Under Threat South Asia: Vulnerability Assessment of Freshwater Resources to Environmental ChangeUNEP, AIT SARSDD 2009South Asia: Shared Views on Development and Climate ChangeSouth Asia Region Sustainable Development Department – The World Bank S.C. Rajan, 2008Climate Migrants in South Asia: Estimates and Solutions – A report by GreenpeaceGreenpeace India Society