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State of African Population report 2012

State of African Population report 2012. Harnessing the Demographic Dividend for Africa ’ s Socio-Economic Development. Dr. Ademola Olajide Head of Division – Health, Nutrition and population African Union Commission. Background.

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State of African Population report 2012

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  1. State of African Population report 2012 Harnessing the Demographic Dividend for Africa’s Socio-Economic Development Dr. Ademola Olajide Head of Division – Health, Nutrition and population African Union Commission

  2. Background • The African Union Commission (AUC) publishes biennial reports on the State of the African Population (since 2004); • 2004: Population and Poverty • 2006: Implications of population dynamics for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). • 2008: The nexus between population and environmental/climate change in Africa; • 2010: The nexus between population factors and peace and security; • The report draws on multiple sources of information, including published and unpublished reports, articles and books from several sources;

  3. Outline of the Report

  4. Population size • Africa continues to have one of the highest population growth rates globally; • From 1950 to 2010, the total African population grew from 234 million to1.02 billion; • This growth is largely outside north Africa; the rest of the continent, over that same period grew from 186 million to 856 million; with a projection to reach 1.7 billion in 2050;

  5. Population Growth Rate. Figure 1: Population Change, by Region, between 2100 and 2100 Population changes between 2010 and 2100 are expected to increase by 2.5 billion in Africa,

  6. African Countries in the Top 30 Most Populous Countries in the World in the year 2000 and the year 2100 • In 2000 – #10 Nigeria; #15 Egypt; #16 Ethiopia; #23 Democratic Republic of Congo; #27 South Africa; • In 2100; - #3 Nigeria; #5 Tanzania; #8 DR Congo; #11 Uganda; #12 Kenya; #14 Ethiopia; #16 Zambia; #17 Niger; #18 Malawi; #19 Sudan; #21 Egypt; #25 Burkina Faso; #26 Madagascar; #29 Mali

  7. Population Age Structure • With almost 200 million people aged between 15 and 24, Africa has the youngest population in the world; • Africa is currently experiencing a ‘youth bulge’, with about 42 per cent of the entire population was under the age of 15; • While the population age structure of each population varies, the continent is largely characterized by a significant population of young people;

  8. Population Age Structure • 9 of the 10 countries with the highest % of population aged <15 years in 2010 are in Africa; ranging from 44.7% in Tanzania to 50.1% in Niger; • In contrast % of older adults (those aged 65-plus years) in Africa is negligible; In 2050, only 7 per cent of Africa’s population is expected to comprise older people

  9. Fertility Total fertility as a measure of fertility is defined as the total number of children a woman would bear if fertility rates remained the same during her lifetime. Figure 2: Total fertility rate of Africa and its sub-regions(4) • All regions in Africa have a TFR above replacement levels

  10. Mortality Mortality plays a key role in the demographic dividend. “Demographic transition” refers to the change from high and unpredictable mortality and fertility to low and stable mortality and fertility rates. (6)

  11. Migration • Push Factors: • War • Poverty • Refugees • Asylum Seekers • Labour Migrants

  12. Urbanization Urbanization in Africa, although it remains below the global average, is radically important in reaping the potential benefits of the demographic dividend. • urban population accounts for 40 per cent of the continental population Trends in the proportion of urban population of the sub-regions of Africa (9) “Youth also largely make up the majority of the individuals who move to urban areas in order to access more opportunities, both work and education related.”

  13. Concept of Demographic dividend • As countries move through a demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality equilibrium; the size of the working age population mechanically increases; • This large cohort of working age population presents the opportunity to stimulate economic growth – demographic dividend;

  14. Concept of Demographic Dividend

  15. Strategies to harness a Demographic Dividend in Africa • Promote gender equality, equity and empowerment of women (50%); • Improve access to Qualitative Education - Each year of schooling is associated with an increase in wages (10% or more); • Enhance health status including access to FP services and information;

  16. Strategies to harvest from the Demographic Dividends in Africa - 2 • Strengthen Food and Nutrition Security; - one in five children in Africa is moderately or severely underweight. • Facilitate Policy Coherence; e.g promote decent jobs for young persons, Between 2000 and 2008 Africa created 73 million jobs but only 16 million jobs were created for young people 15 and 24;

  17. Conclusion • The current demographic profile of the African continent presents an opportunity to harness a demographic dividend; • The dividend is not automatic! National governments must implement a deliberate and coherence range of polices to promote “an integrated, peaceful and prosperous Africa, driven by its citizens and playing its role on the global arena;

  18. Merci beaucoup

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