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Climate Scenarios for Regional applications, selected cases of Latin America Abel Centella

1 ST Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop Assessment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) San José 27-30 June 2003. Climate Scenarios for Regional applications, selected cases of Latin America Abel Centella

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Climate Scenarios for Regional applications, selected cases of Latin America Abel Centella

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  1. 1ST Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop Assessment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) San José 27-30 June 2003 Climate Scenarios for Regional applications, selected cases of Latin America Abel Centella Institute of Meteorology La Habana, Cuba

  2. Experiences from First National Communication process in some countries in LA region Countries: Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panamá, Haití, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Dominican Republic, Paraguay • National Communication Process: • V&A is one of the issues • Lack of time for research • Previous experiences • Building Capacity

  3. The Work was oriented to • Develop a climate base line for each country (grided climate data) • Understand the climate change issue • The art of climate change scenario development • The use of climate changes scenario results

  4. TEMPERATURE CUBA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR

  5. PRECIPITATION CUBA EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA

  6. Correlations between STA in Pacific Regions and Precipitation in El Salvador with some lags (months)

  7. CLIMATE SCENARIOS WERE CREATED USING MAGICC SIMPLE CLIMATE MODEL MAGICC/SCENGEN University of East Anglia UK

  8. Simple Climate Model Structure Representation

  9. Global warming & Climate sensitivity Emission scenarios Global warming, emission scenarios & Climate sensitivity CO2 CH4 N2O

  10. Selecting GCM HADCM2 Reino Unido UKTR Reino Unido UKHI Reino Unido UKLO Reino Unido CSIRO9/M2 Australia BMRC Australia CSIRO9 Australia GISSEQ Estados Unidos GFDLLO Estados Unidos LLNL Estados Unidos OSU Estados Unidos CCCEQ Canadá ECHAM1TR Alemania ECHAM3TR Alemania • Criteria for selection: • Representation of current climate • Grid resolution • Model vintage • Different projections

  11. Climate projections from different GCMs combined with different GHG scenarios and Climate Sensibilities

  12. THE UNCERTAINTY SPACE • Emissions • Climate sensitivity • GCM regional outputs Which CC scenario we can select?

  13. MCG DVi = (2XCO2 - 1XCO2) DVMCG = DVi / DTMCG MCS DTaño,MCS = DTMAGICC DVi,año = DVMCG*DTaño,MCS Combining Simple and Global Climate Models Santer (1990)

  14. TEMPERATURE ANNUAL VARIATION GUATEMALA

  15. PRECIPITATION ANNUAL VARIATION GUATEMALA

  16. ARIDITY INDEX GUATEMALA

  17. SOME LESSONS • Develop an uncertainty analysis approach • Downscaling must be incorporate (e.g High Resolution Regional Model) • Individual (country) experiences must be integrated in future work Unfortunally, a regional proposal for CA & the Caribbean did not classify for the AIACC Grant

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