Mission Timescale Conundrum

1. Astrophysics 2020: Large Space Missions beyond the Next DecadePanel Discussion on the Mission Timescale ConundrumDr. Colleen HartmanDeputy Associate AdministratorScience Mission DirectorateNASA HeadquartersNovember 13, 2007

2. Mission Timescale Conundrum • Advocacy challenge: staying focused for t ≥ 20 years • Decadal Survey process builds community consensus, but special interests abound • Long-term technology investments are always needed, but which tools and techniques get priority? • Political & budgetary stability are very difficult (~10 Congresses and multiple Administrations) • Difficult to know when to start putting in significant money given hesitancy to commit • Federal budget is in 1-year intervals • Scientific priorities may change faster than mission development • Interagency and international partnerships come with risk • Early cost estimates are ALWAYS low • Personal Observation: It is the scientist that sells missions, nurtures them and works the floors of HQ and congress C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

3. Cost Estimation Conundrum • Advocates have strong bias towards under-estimating costs precisely because it’s hard to get missions started • New large missions may leverage previous technologies, but are essentially highly customized one-offs • Extrapolating technology development and mission costs is very difficult during early planning stages • Complexities of Launch Vehicle industry • LV full costs often underestimated at mission inception • Long-term capability and availability NOT driven by NASA or science • HQ management approach: • Budget missions at Confirmation at a 70% confidence level with realistic cost reserves • Enforce cost control on missions to sustain the flight queue • Fit the scientific and technical content within projected resources • Cancel or descope missions that break the bank, but descope options decrease with increasing time C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

4. Average Budget NASA Funding History ($B FY2000) C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

5. Total NASA Budget($17.3 billion requested for FY08) OSTP-OMB FY08 budget overview for SSB, March 2007 C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

6. Astrophysics as a Fraction of NASA Budget C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

7. Great Observatory Intervals C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

8. NASA Science Mission Launches (CY06-CY14) Joint NASA - International Partner Mission NASA Mission on US ELV As of 09-25-07 DoD Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution Foreign Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution Reimbursable for NOAA • = Successfully launched to date * = Early science; targeting 2009 GLAST IBEX SDO OCO Glory HST SM-4 OSTM GOES-O GOES-P CINDI Chandrayan 1 Herschel Planck • New Horizons •  ST-5 •  STEREO •  Cloudsat •  CALIPSO •  GOES-N •  ST-6 •  TWINS-A •  Hinode Kepler NPP MSL WISE ST-8 SOFIA NOAA-N’ ST-7/LPF • THEMIS • AIM • Phoenix • Dawn • TWINS-B ExoMars SMEX GPM Core JWST NuSTAR Juno LDCM Mars Scout GPM Const MMS ES Decadal 1 Discovery RBSP MoO SMEX Discovery Aquarius 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference

9. SMD Launches (Phase A-D, $M) C. Hartman - Astrophysics 2020 Conference