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Netherlands Overview 2009

Netherlands Overview 2009. Alain Pradelle, Xiaowei Zhang Dec, 2008. Table of content. Macro Economics Voice Telephony Market 2.1. Market in Volume 2.2. IP Penetration 2.3. Market Shares Contact Center Market 3.1. Market in Volume 3.2. Market Shares Voice Telephony Distribution

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Netherlands Overview 2009

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  1. Netherlands Overview 2009 Alain Pradelle, Xiaowei Zhang Dec, 2008

  2. Table of content • Macro Economics • Voice Telephony Market 2.1. Market in Volume 2.2. IP Penetration 2.3. Market Shares • Contact Center Market 3.1. Market in Volume 3.2. Market Shares • Voice Telephony Distribution • Competitors Marketing Mix Strategy • Data Market: LAN Switches, POE & Wireless LAN • Alcatel SWOT Analysis • Market Drivers • Main Events

  3. 1 Macro Economics Trends

  4. Macro Economics TrendsReal GDP Real GDP Growth A huge decrease in 2002 (-1.8pt) and recovery since; From 2007, forecast to fall very fast. Source : IMF 10/2008 

  5. 2 Dutch Voice Telephony Market 2.1. Market in Volume

  6. Dutch Voice Telephony Market in VolumePBX-IP > 6 PBX / IP-PBX > 6 Market Trend 5% 6% 4% 3% CAGR 2006-2011: +4.3% 4% Source : Alcatel-Lucent In revenue,Dutch managers forecast a +0.3% increase for telecom in 2009. Assuming prices fall 3 to 4%, volumes should grow around 4%.

  7. Dutch Voice Telephony Market in VolumePBX / IP-PBX Small, Medium and Large Trends PBX / IP-PBX Small, Medium and Large Market Trends CAGR 2006-2011: 6-100: +1.2% 100-500: + 4.4% 500+: + 4.4% Source : Alcatel-Lucent Limited growth for Large segments, but less in SMBS.

  8. 2 Dutch Voice Telephony Market 2.2. IP Penetration

  9. IP PenetrationDutch IP to the Desk Penetration (1/2) Dutch IP to the Desk Penetration >11 Segment 585 545 663 762 TDM: refers to extensions that support switched voice transmission using timed division multiplex on traditionnal corded PBXs and IP Hybrid PBXs IP Extension: refers to extensions that support packet switched voice transmissions from the desktop on IP Hybrid PBXs Comments: Does not take IP trunking into consideration Source: MZA

  10. IP PenetrationDutch IP to the Desk Penetration (2/2) Dutch IP to the Desk Penetration <100 Segment (Excluding Micro) >100 Segment 340 327 258 297 421 366 Comments: Does not take IP trunking into consideration Source: MZA IP Penetration rate is three times higher in the Large Segment (>100 Segment) than in the Small One (<100 Segment)

  11. 2 Dutch Voice Telephony Market 2.3. Market Shares

  12. Market Shares in VolumeEvolution in <100 Segment <100 PBX / IP-PBX Market Share in Volume* Source : MZA 07/2008 *Excluding Micro PBXs and Including Additional Extensions

  13. Market Shares in VolumeEvolution in >100 Segment >100 PBX / IP-PBX Market Share in Volume Source : MZA 07/2008 *Including Additional Extensions

  14. Dutch Voice Telephony Market ShareAlcatel-Lucent’s Sales - 2007 Alcatel-Lucent’s Sales in Volume and Value Source : Alcatel-Lucent & MZA 14 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  15. EMEA Magic QuadrantCorporate Telephony No-update available: Gartner publishes only a world MQ by now –12/08 EMEA Magic Quadrant 2007 ALU is still in the Leaders Quadrant, with a slight improvement in the axis “completeness of vision” compared to the last year. Gartner’s comments: -”The single flagship product in OmniPCX Enterprise is a strong product proposition for telephony in large enterprise customers that can be delivered cost-effectively”. • “ALU has a good installed base of customers across the leading markets in EMEA for established and product sales”. • “ALU has developed good channel relationships with network system integrators and network service providers for sales and integration”. • “Caution: The channels to market are primarily traditional telephony and CC SI that don’t have the skills in messaging or the required understanding of Microsoft and IBM to sell UC”. Source : Gartner 2007 15 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  16. 3 Contact Center Market 3.1. Market in Volume

  17. Contact Center MarketDutch CC Market in Volume Dutch CC Market in Volume Netherlands – Contact Center Market (KAgents) The Dutch CC Market grew 3% in 2007, following a 3% increase in 2006. The total Market accounted for 29.3K Agents in 2007. Source: Alcatel-Lucent & MZA

  18. Contact Center MarketForecast: Dutch CC Market in Volume Forecast (2007-2011): Dutch CC Market in Volume Netherlands – Contact Center Market (KAgents) +3 % Source: Alcatel-Lucent

  19. 3 Contact Center Market 3.2. Market Shares

  20. Contact Center Market SharesNetherlands – 2007 Total Agents, By Volume Netherlands – Contact Center Market Share 2006 & 2007 56% 2006 2007 - Avaya signed some exceptional large deals. (To be confirmed by local team) • ALU+Genesys share tops at 11%, i.e. ranking #2 34% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Avaya Aastra Nortel Others Ericsson Genesys CosmoCom Interactive NEC Philips Cisco Systems Aspect Software Alcatel-Lucent Mitel Networks Source: MZA Jul 2008 • Avaya performed particularly well in the 2007 Dutch contact centre market, following a decrease in sales in 2006 and now hold a 56% share • Mitel Networks achieved a 7% share of the market in 2007 compared to 9% in the preceding year • Genesys enjoyed a succesful year as its share increased to 6% in 2007 from 1% in 2006 • NEC Philips’ share halved to represent 5% of the 2007 market compared to the 10% share it held in 2006 • Alcatel-Lucent’s share reduced by 3 percentage points from 8% to 5% in 2007, but a larger shift to Genesys is observed.

  21. 4 Voice Telephony Distribution 21 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  22. Voice Telephony DistributionChannels Definition Channels Definition Direct: Sales performed by salaried sales people of the manufacturer. Direct Dealer: -System Integrator: Partner building a complete customized solution from a variety of multivendor components and that requires expertise in hardware, software and networking. -VAR: Partner able to add value to a basic system by packaging it with software, applications and other components from different manufacturers and providing tier one support. Service Provider (Operator): Partner providing nationwide or worldwide communications and networking services for public use or private companies. Master Distributor: Partner traditionally focused on retail and who maintain the distribution channels, generate leads, inventory hardware, drop ship and provide support. Source : Alcatel-Lucent 22 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  23. Voice Telephony DistributionNetherlands - Distribution Cartography <100 To be updated by local Unit Manufacturers 2% 42% 56% Direct Indirect Service Provider Vendors: Siemens Avaya Channels: KPN Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent Siemens Ericsson 21% 21% Direct Dealers Distributors Channels: Getronics IBM NextiraOne VRC Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent Siemens Ericsson Nortel Avaya Channels: Damovo Crane CSS TSV Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Panasonic Siemens Avaya Indirect Dealers 21% 56% 2% 21% End-Users 23 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  24. Voice Telephony DistributionNetherlands - Distribution Cartography >100 To be updated by local Unit Manufacturers 23% 38% 39% Direct Indirect Service Provider Vendors: Siemens Aastra Avaya Cisco Channels: KPN Vendors: Siemens Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Cisco 16% 22% Direct Dealers Distributors Channels: Getronics IBM NextiraOne VRC Vendors: Siemens Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Cisco Nortel Avaya Channels: Damovo Crane CSS TSV Vendors: Siemens Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Cisco Aastra Nortel Avaya Indirect Dealers 22% 39% 23% 16% End-Users 24 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  25. Voice Telephony Distribution Netherlands - Channels Mapping Top Channels To be filled in by local Unit Netherlands - Channels Mapping 25 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  26. 5 Competitors Marketing Mix Strategy 26 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  27. Competitors Marketing Mix Strategy Name of Competitor To be filled in by local Unit Name of Competitor Marketing Mix Strategy 27 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  28. 6 Dutch Data Market: LAN Switches, POE & Wireless LAN 28 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  29. World Wide Data Market LAN Switches Market in Volume - Layer 2 + Layer 3 WW LAN Switches* Market in Volume – Layer 2 + Layer 3 WW LAN Switches* Market in Volume (M ports) 217,4 19% CAGR (2005-2007) Total: +18 % N.A.: +13 % EMEA: +21 % Asia Pacific: +24 % RoW: +8 % 17% 182,8 155.7 * Including Managed and Unmanaged LAN Switches Source: Dell’Oro 2Q 2008 29 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  30. EMEA Data Market LAN Switches Market Small Enterprise vs. Midsize and Large Enterprise - Layer 2 + Layer 3 + L4-7 EMEA LAN Switches Enterprise Market: Small Enterprise** vs. Midsize and Large Enterprise*– (2007) in Volume (Kports) in End User Value (M$) 1503 3864 34742 174 484 63802 Source: Gartner 08/2008 *Midsize and Large Enterprise : Defined by revenue & port shipments of LAN Switches to medium & large networked enterprises, with more than 20 employees that are regular network “users”. **Small Enterprise: Defined by revenue & port shipments of LAN Switches to small networked enterprises, with less than 20 employees that are regular network “users”. 30 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  31. EMEA Data Market LAN Switches Total Market in Value & Volume - 2007 Total LAN Switches Market in Manufacturer Value & Volume In Manufacturer Revenue (M$) In Volume (Kports) 10 GPBS is included but still very small: 5594 100841 9% 4498 0.2% 81560 6.3% 35.8% 0.1% 29.1% 66.5% 64.5% 64% 70.8% 24.4% 29.2% Source: Gartner 03/2008 This quantification is older (March 2008) and is manufacturer revenue. (Gartner lowed its market sizing in August 2008, please refer to fewer slide 30) 31 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  32. Netherlands : Data MarketLAN Switches Market in Volume Netherlands: LAN Switches market forecast in Volume L2-L3/ L4-7 LAN Switch Port Shipments in Netherland, 2007-2012 (Thousands of Ports) CAGR 2007-2012: +3% +3% Source: Gartner-August 2008 32 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  33. Netherlands : Data MarketLAN Switches Market in Value Netherlands : LAN Switches market forecast in End-User Value L2-L3/ L4-7 LAN Switch End-User Spending in Netherlands, 2007-2012 (Millions of US Dollars) CAGR 2007-2012: -0.2% -0.9% Source: Gartner-August 2008 33 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  34. EMEA Data MarketPOE Market - EMEA EMEA – 2006/2007 POE Market Evolution Evolution of POE Market (000) With 16 780Kport shipments in 2007, the EMEA POE market represents nearly 38% of the WW POE market. The average POE average premium price tends to increase YoY. In 2007, the average price was about 23k$ compared to 21K$ in 2006. Source: Gartner 03/2008 Compared to 2006, the POE penetration rate in EMEA in volume raised 2,4pts up to 13,6% of LAN Switches ports in 2007. 34 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  35. EMEA Data Market POE Market Share - EMEA EMEA – 2007 POE Market Share (in Volume & Value) EMEA POE Market in Value was about $ 385 M in 2007 POE Market Share in Volume & Manufacturer Revenue Source: Gartner 03/2008 Note: PoE revenue only includes the revenue derived from the premium charged per PoE port inside the switch 35 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  36. WW Data MarketWireless LAN Market WW Wireless LAN Market in Volume per Region CAGR (2005-2007) Total: +34 % Rest of World: +37 % Asia Pacific: +18 % EMEA: +33% North America: +40 % Source: Dell’Oro Group2008 36 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  37. World Wide Data Market Wireless LAN: Enterprise Total Evolution in Volume & Value WW Enterprise Total Evolution in Volume & Value 1764 2832 2356 3374 In Volume Units (000’s) In volume and value, the share of Access Points Independent has decreased, in benefit of Access Points Dependent. 1820 917 1255 1459 In Value $M (in Manufacturer Revenue) Source: Dell’Oro Group Jul.2008 37 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  38. WW Data Market Wireless LAN Market: Dependent Access Points & Switch Forecast: WW Dependent Access Points & Switch Market in Volume (in KUnits) The number of Access Points per Switch tends to increase YoY Average number of Access Points per Switch: (forecast 2006-2009) 2006: 14.9 2007: 13.8 2008: 14.0 2009: 17.7 47 % 29 % 43 % Source: Dell’Oro Jul.2008 * Independent Access Points & server/Appliances are not taken into account 38 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  39. EMEA Data Market Wireless LAN Market Share – EMEA EMEA – 2005/2007 Wireless LAN Market Share in Volume EMEA - Wireless LAN Market Share in Volume Gaining Shares: • Cisco: + 8 pts Stable: HP ProCurve, Alcatel-Lucent, Motorola Losing Shares: -3Com: - 5,6 pts -PROXIM Source: Dell’Oro Jul. 2008 Cisco is the market leader with 58% Market Share in 2007. To the expense of 3COM/H3C and Proxim. HP Procurve, Motorola, Aruba & ALU gained points in 2007, or were almost stable, but they still remain largely behind Cisco. 39 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  40. 7 Alcatel SWOT Analysis 40 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  41. Alcatel SWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis for Netherlands To be updated by local Unit Internal Strengths Internal Weaknesses • Poor on non-existing penetration in Finance & Multi National Accounts • Lack of channel marketing power • Lack of strong & committed international agreements with HP, IBM, DiData… • Lack of pre-sales & sales specialist resources toward Direct Touch team & channel • Poor support from Central team due to language issue • No local post-sales support • No strong & self-sufficient Business Partners • Lack of ressources to focus on TOP consultants • Brand awareness • Strong market share in <100 lines • Very committed and efficient team • Growing market penetration in NL through network of resellers … … External Opportunities External Threats … • Mid-Market • Managed Business Communications Services • Focus on vertical markets and Multi National Accounts • Convergence offer/solution • Get selected & strategic Business Partners • Market awareness and press-communications • Business model towards large customers requesting more and more direct business with Alcatel-Lucent • P-CAT versus ESD • Lack of RFI support (Sales Specialist) • Growing market shares of Siemens, Avaya and Cisco 41 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  42. 8 Market Drivers 42 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  43. Market AnalysisMarket Drivers (1/2) To be updated by local Unit Generic Market Drivers • The main market driver still being cost savings in all aspects. • As the cost savings are implemented, the early adopters will start to look for business value add on their networks. • Voice traffic is moving from fixed networks to mobile networks. Voice over IP / IP Telephony • Cost savings still the main driver in the shift to IP telephony. • IP telephony introduction by carriers will boost market. • Service providers offering hosted and managed services. 43 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  44. Market AnalysisMarket Drivers (2/2) To be updated by local Unit Fixed / Mobile Convergence • One terminal / one number / no cost – PBX like services hosted by GSM operator is a major market driver. • GSM / WiFi roaming, IP mobiles. Applications • The high penetration of email and internet is driving the market towards Multi Media contact centres. • Collaboration tools enabling cost savings will be a main driver in 2006. 44 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  45. 9 Main Events: M&A’s 45 | Presentation Title | Month 2006

  46. Events : M&A’s Main Events: World Wide Summary WW M&A Summary Total acquisitions have almost represented 20,7 B$ during the last years • Cisco is the leader in M&A, with a total of 3,93 B$, representing 19% of the total acquisitions amount • Avaya’s total acquisitions amount is approximately 0.63B$, 3.1% of the total M&A market • Nortel has spent € 73m, 0.4% of the total M&A market • Alcatel-Lucent’s acquisitions amount is nearly € 36m, 0.2% of the total M&A market • Two competitors bought by investment firms: • Avaya acquired by Silverlake and TPG ($ 8.2B) • 3Com acquired by Bain Capital ($ 2.2B) • Siemens / Gores ($ not disclosed) 46 | China overview| November 2008

  47. Events : M&A’sVoice Voice M&A 47 | China overview| November 2008

  48. Events : M&A’sData Data M&A 48 | China overview| November 2008

  49. Events : M&A’sContact Center Contact Center M&A 49 | China overview| November 2008

  50. Events : M&A’sSecurity Security M&A 50 | China overview| November 2008

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