DPR Korean Energy Demand/Supply Analysis: Energy Balance Sheet 2003

1. 1 DPR Korean Energy Demand/Supply Analysis: Energy Balance Sheet 2003 DPRK Energy Experts Study Group Meeting June 26 – June 27, 2006 Standford University, Palo Alto, California, USA Kyung-Sool Kim Korea Energy Economics Institute Center for Energy Research, Northeast Asia

2. A. Overview 1 • 1. Gvnt’s Official Estimates on Primary Energy Supply • ■ TPES of Coal, Oil, Hydro and Others • ■ Socio-Economic Comparison between South/North Korea, • Korean National Statistical Office, Published at the end of • every year • 2. Other Sources • ■ From related organizations, institutions, industries, • departments of government, • ■ experts, media and sometimes from DPR Korea • 3. Bold assumption and experts judgments • ■ Estimates and inferences • ■ Refugee Interview

3. B. Primary Energy Supply 1 • Primary Energy Supply in 2004: 16.5 mil. TOE • 69.0% level of 1990’s • Average Annual Growth Rate of • Coal: -2.6% • Oil: -5.0% • Hydro: -1.3% • Others: -2.6% • TPES: -2.6%

4. B. Primary Energy Supply 1 • When TPES in 1990 is 1.0 • oil decreased to 0.69, coal decreased to 0.688

5. B. Primary Energy Supply 1 • No significant change in TPES structure • Oil share decreased from 10.5%(1990) to 7.4%(2004) • Hydro share increased from 15.6%(1990) to 18.9%(2004)

6. B. Primary Energy Supply 1 • TOE per capita decreased from 1.18 (1990) to 0.73 (2004) • TOE/GNI decreased from 1.14 (1990) to 0.92 (2004)

7. C. Final Energy Consumption - Coal 1 ■ Estimation of the structure of sectoral coal consumption

8. C. Final Energy Consumption - Oil 1 ■ Estimation of Oil Import, Heavy Oil for Power Generation and the results of Distillation From government's official statistics From The Bank of Korea “Economic growth rate of DPRK” Total Supply minus Crude Oil Import 1995-2002: KEDO Heavy Oil, 2003~: Heavy Oil from Distillation + Some of Imported Heavy Oil (Crude Oil Import * 0.91) + Other Products Total Product Import minus H. Oil for P. Gen.

9. C. Final Energy Consumption - Oil 1 ■ Application of sectoral share of oil consumption in 1990 to all years Sectoral Share of Oil Consumption (1990)

10. C. Final Energy Consumption - Others 1 ■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results) Sectoral Share of Other Energy From government's official statistics

11. C. Final Energy Consumption - Electricity 1 ■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results) Sectoral Share of Electricity T&D Losses: ~ 92: 20% 93~95: 25% 96 ~: 30% (J.M. Kim, 2001) From government's official statistics

12. C. Final Energy Consumption 1 ■ Final Energy Consumption by Sources

13. C. Final Energy Consumption 1 ■ Final Energy Consumption by Sector

14. D. Energy Transformation 1 ■ Energy Input for Power Generation From Government’s Official Statistics From Government’s Official Statistics (Oil Products Import + Distillated Products) – Final Oil Consumption • ■ Oil Distillation: Products Acquisition Rate (91%) Applied • Own Use & Losses

15. E. Energy Balance Sheet 2004 1

16. F. Further Development 1 • ■ Data Gathering • DPR Korean Official Statistics • Survey on Energy Consuming Behavior ■ Biomass in Energy Balance Sheet • Non-Commercial Energy: Excluded in IEA Standard • Separate Format for Biomass Use ■ International Cooperation • DPR Korean Expert Training for Energy Data System • Cooperative Research Projects with DPRK • Energy Survey in DPR Korea

17. 1 THANK YOU VERY MUCH