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Eugene Climate Events Since 2000

Eugene Climate Events Since 2000. Not very many real anomalies. El Nino/La Nina Expectations. Do we see wet/dry hot/cold anomalies that line up with this pattern – not convincingly. ‘heat waves”. Cold Spells. These are subtle but statistically valid:. Excessive La Nina Rain.

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Eugene Climate Events Since 2000

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  1. Eugene Climate EventsSince 2000 Not very many real anomalies

  2. El Nino/La Nina Expectations • Do we see wet/dry hot/cold anomalies that line up with this pattern – not convincingly

  3. ‘heat waves”

  4. Cold Spells • These are subtle but statistically valid:

  5. Excessive La Nina Rain • January 2006: 12.71 inches • November 2006: 14.51 inches • January 2008: 8.54 inches • March 2011: 6.27 inches • And that’s about it

  6. February Drought! • 2001: 1.77 • 2002: 2.43 • 2003: 2.47 • 2005: 1.31 • 2008: 1.74 • 5 “10 % events” in the 8 years P(x) = 1 chance in 815

  7. Feb Drought Stops • Does not continue past 2008: 2009 – 4.76 inches 2010 – 4.61 inches 2011 -- 4.97 inches 2012 -- 4.05 inches This is why identifying change is so difficult in the midst of cycles.

  8. March – June Changes • 2000 – 2009: 8.9 +/ 2.1 inches • 2010 – 2011: average = 15 inches • 15 – 8.9 = 6.1 • 6.1/2.1 = 2.9 = .2% probability • Interesting but needs more years confirmation (2012 already is starting out with wet March)

  9. Water Year Drought 2000-2001: • November 2000 1.64 inches • December 2000 4.15 inches • January 2001 1.54 inches • February 2001 1.77 inches • Total 9.46 inches • Expected Total 30.73 inches!!

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