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Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation persisting during the winter 2009

Outline. Observed Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in Winter 2009/2010Performance of JMA's Operational Monthly Forecast in Winter 2009/2010 (extremely good!)The reason why operational AGCM was able to forecast the negative AO properlyConclusion. Outline. Observed Extremely Negative

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Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation persisting during the winter 2009

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    1. Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation persisting during the winter 2009/2010 and the spring 2010 Shingo Ushida, JMA ushida@met.kishou.go.jp (Thanks to Yuhei Takaya and Noriyuki Adachi, JMA )

    4. Monthly mean temperature in the winter 2009/2010 Monthly mean normalized temperature anomalies

    9. Performance of the Third and Fourth Week Prediction (in December 2009)

    10. Performance of the Third and Fourth Week Prediction (in February 2010)

    12. Data Set JRA-25/JCDAS (re-analysis/operational analysis data) JMA’S operational monthly ensemble forecast (50 members) Hindcast of operational monthly ensemble Model (1979-2004, five members) Eddy Butterworth high-pass filter with cutoff period 10 days Momentum flux of eddy : E-vector E=(v’2-u’2, -u’v’) Contribution of Eddy to Negative AO ???????????NAO?????????????????????????????????????????·????300hPa????6????????????????????????????????????10??Butterworth?????????????????????????????(Butterworth ??????????????(IIR?????)??????????????????FIR????????1??????????????????????) ???????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????NAO?????????????????????????????????????????·????300hPa????6????????????????????????????????????10??Butterworth?????????????????????????????(Butterworth ??????????????(IIR?????)??????????????????FIR????????1??????????????????????) ????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    13. ?y (-u’v’), U300 anomaly (December) ???1??????????300hPa?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????·??????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????PNA?NAO????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????1??????????300hPa?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????·??????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????PNA?NAO????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????

    14. Divergence of E-vector in Hindcast (December)

    15. ?y (-u’v’), U300 anomaly (February) ???300hPa???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????? ??????????????????????????????300hPa???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????? ???????????????????????????

    16. Divergence of E-vector in Hindcast (February) ????30-40N??????????? E-vector ???·?????????????????????2010?2???????????30N-40N???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2???????????????????????????????30-40N??????????? E-vector ???·?????????????????????2010?2???????????30N-40N???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2???????????????????????????

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