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OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner

OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner. What have we learned? What models (or other approaches to synthesis) exist or are needed and of what type? How does climate influence variability of recruitment in these systems?. Model Resolution-Temporal/Spatial Issues of Model Integration.

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OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner

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  1. OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner

  2. What have we learned? What models (or other approaches to synthesis) exist or are needed and of what type? • How does climate influence variability of recruitment in these systems?

  3. Model Resolution-Temporal/Spatial Issues of Model Integration THE SEA SPECIES IN THE MODEL Birds/mammals Bacteria Number of State Variables Detail of Resolution Number of Species

  4. Nested 3D physical models, linked to climate models u,v,w,Kz,T... 3D-coupled NPZD model (primary and secondary production) 3D-coupled ZLCM (distribution and abundance of individual zooplankton species) (Prey fields) (Prey fields) 3D-coupled fish larvae trophodynamic model (growth and survival of fish larvae) Environmental conditions for recruitment

  5. What are the critical characteristics that make these species useful for pan regional comparisons? • Restate the question: What evidence do we have that knowledge of the life history characteristics and physiological attributes of the individual species is essential to understanding the ecosystem dynamics? • Consensus is that detailed knowledge of the individual life histories of zooplankton is important

  6. Copepod Life History Trade-offs 60 50 40 Egg production 30 20 10 0 Pseudocalanus Calanus finmarchicus . 0.8 0.7 0.6 Egg survival 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

  7. The species question continued • We have approaches and detailed knowledge to answer questions of climate forcing on recruitment of the target species • During synthesis, we need to identify how our knowledge can be applied to the broad question of climate forcing on ecosystem and function. Do the target species responses representative of ecosystem structure and function. Will inclusion of other key species now identified be sufficient? How much simplification can we re-introduce?

  8. Data gaps • Identification of key species not originally targeted (e.g. pteropods) • Microbial components for NPZ • Nutrient and phytoplankton data for model validation

  9. The overarching question • Climate forcing mechanisms: local vs remote - Freshwater effects on density driven circulation and stratification - Winds • Model approaches: common technical issues linking the coupled models • Different life histories- responses to forcing: compare and contrast among regions • Similarities in geomorphology; eg. GB and Antarctica translate into similarities in forcing and ecosystem responses?

  10. Biological challenges Growth and reproduction dependency on food availability Understanding the processes determining entry and exit from fall-winter dormancy Mortality rates Vertical distribution of life stages

  11. Biological challenges…1 Description of linkage between primary production and copepod growth and reproduction Calanus finmarchicus: Relationship of egg production to phytoplankton biomass Durbin et al. 2003: Gulf of Maine Runge et al. (2006): Georges Bank

  12. coupled ecosystem – sea-ice ocean circulation model Comparisons to satellite-derived fields:St. Lawrence discharge effect model satellite SST Chl a kCDOM vs Chl a AVHRR SeaWIFS SeaWIFS 3rd – 6th of August 1998 Le Fouest et al., submitted

  13. March 95 March 99 Huret M, Chen C

  14. coupled ecosystem – sea-ice ocean circulation model Observed vs simulated chlorophyll a biomass 1997 1998 1999 Spring Fall observed predicted Chifflet et al., in prep

  15. coupled ecosystem – sea-ice ocean circulation model Observed vs simulated nitrate concentration 1997 1998 1999 Spring Fall observed predicted Chifflet et al., in prep

  16. 1995 surface layer mid-layer bottom layer

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