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Yan Shen University of British Columbia

Surface parameters forecast in Vancouver and Whistler area - Verification of MC2v498 parallel runs. Yan Shen University of British Columbia. Outline. Reviews of MC2v498 at our group Verification of Surface temperature forecast

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Yan Shen University of British Columbia

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  1. Surface parameters forecast in Vancouver and Whistler area- Verification of MC2v498 parallel runs Yan Shen University of British Columbia

  2. Outline • Reviews of MC2v498 at our group • Verification of • Surface temperature forecast • in Vancouver and Whistler during Feb 10 -17, 2005: • Verification of surface wind speed forecast in Whistler area. • Conclusions

  3. Reviews of MC2v498 at UBC • Installed in May 2004 • From June-October, tested on monster • Started in Nov 2004, running for MC2 sensitivity tests (&CMC) • Started on Jan 1st 2005,running for Duke energy project. • MC2 parallel runs performed from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2005 • Started on March 3rd, running as our operational model

  4. Parallel runs on 4 km grid resolution combining: Cascade files from MC2v498 12 km grid runFCREST surface schemeKain-Fristch deep convective schemeKong-Yau microphysics scheme (KFC&KY)Improved geophysicical file (from RPN) UBC&CMC ; RWDI&CMC MC2 sensitivity tests (3rd test) NEW

  5. Preliminary results of parallel runs • Compare MC2v498’s raw forecasts against MC2v491’s raw forecasts and observation (OBS) surface data(two EC stations) during Feb10-17, 2005.

  6. VANCOUVER INT'L Latitude:49° 12'NLongitude:123° 10' WElevation: 4.30m WHISTLERLatitude:50°7'NLongitude:122° 57' WElevation:657.80m Choose two locations : ( both are EC stations)

  7. UBC 4 km domain Complex Terrain in Southern BC !

  8. Verification of surface temperature forecast • Use • surface temperature forecasts from MC2 4 km operational and parallel runs • Surface observation data: from EC web page

  9. MC2V491 10/02/2005 MC2V498

  10. Whistler Vancouver Mc2v498 is close to OBS

  11. MC2v498 MC2v491 11/02/2005

  12. Whistler Vancouver MC2v498 is close to OBS at day time MC2V491 is close to OBS at night

  13. 12/02/2005 mc2v491 mc2v498

  14. Whistler Vancouver MC2v498 is cold, but warmer than MC2 v491

  15. 13/02/2005 MC2v498 MC2v491

  16. Whistler MC2 is cold Vancouver

  17. MC2v498 MC2v491 14/02/2005

  18. Whistler Vancouver MC2 is cold ! V498 is better at day time, v491 is better at night.

  19. 15/02/2005 MC2v498 MC2v491

  20. MC2v498 is close to OBS in Whistler Whistler Vancouver In Vancouver, MC2v498 is better at day time,MC2v491 is better at night

  21. 16/02/2005 MC2v498 MC2v491

  22. Perfect Whistler Vancouver MC2v498 is warmer at day time

  23. Results for verification of surface temperature forecast • MC2v498 has a warm bias near water. But it has a good performance in predicting the surface temperature in mountainous area (need more verifications). • How to use Kalmen filter for MC2 finer grid run’s results in the future? • Does Kalmen filter know day-time forecast or night-time forecast?

  24. Verification of Surface wind speed forecast • Use the case of Feb 11, 2005. Both MC2 finished 4 km and 2 km grid runs on that day. • Compare surface wind speed forecasts with OBS hourly data in Whistler

  25. 4PST MC2V498 4 km MC2v491 4km 10PST

  26. 16PST MC2v491 4km MC2v498 4km 22PST

  27. Parallel runs on 2 km gridcombining: • Cascade files from MC2v498 4 km grid runFCREST surface schemeKain-Fristch deep convective schemeKong-Yau microphysics scheme(KFC&KY) … • Only completely finished with four days during this experiment of MC2 parallel runs

  28. 6PST MC2v491 2km MC2v498 2 km 8PST

  29. 10PST MC2v498 2km MC2v491 2km 12PST

  30. 14PST MC2v498 2km MC2v491 2km 16PST

  31. Seems in this case :MC2v498 produces faster wind speed than MC2v491in Mountainous area of BC?

  32. Whistler From OBS Hourly data between PST 0700 and 1700, the wind speed in Whistler is always equal to zero. What’s wrong??? (even Kalmen Filter forecast) ------ Same location, same day….

  33. Our thought • MC2 model always underestimate the wind speed. • Really? • (This problem might only exist near water or low flat surface).

  34. Another Case 12/02/2005 Whistler Seems nothing is right if OBS data is right ?

  35. Results for verification of surface temperature forecast • It’s very difficult to accurately forecast surface wind speed in mountainous area of BC ( at least in EC Whistler station) • Sometimes, Kalmen filter makes surface wind speed forecast worse !?

  36. Optimistic idea for surface wind forecast • Obtain more OBS data from mountainous area of BC? Some new OBS stations will be build up in Whistler area before 2008 (2010 winter Olympics issue). • Use more advanced MC2&RPN physics package. • Use other model initial data than NAM forecasts, • (GEM or GFS) ? • Produce half hour forecasts. Need more computer power and … • Use more advanced Kalmen filter ( mountainous type).

  37. Pessimistic idea • Forget about surface wind speed forecast • Don’t waste time on it. Few available OBS stations in BC mountainous area Pacific data void also affects the surface wind speed forecast in BC

  38. END • Thanks to Henryk and George for making weather maps and meteograms from MC2 parallel runs

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