SPJs The “gold-standard” measure of risk of violence is the HCR20.

1. Spearman’s ρ = -.48, p <.05 Spearman’s ρ = -.20, ns Spearman’s ρ = -.79, p <.001 Spearman’s ρ = -.71, p <.001 Spearman’s ρ = -.90, p <.001 Spearman’s ρ = -.33 ns 3 3 10 3 5 2 Females Females Males Males Females Males 2.5 2.5 2.5 8 4 1.5 Incidents per month 2 2 2 Incidents per month 6 3 Incidents per month 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 4 2 1 1 1 0.5 2 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 0 5 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 Months since admission Months since admission Months since admission Months since admission Months since admission Months since admission Outcomes Study Professor Robert Snowden1, Professor Nicola Gray2, and Ty Catrin staff 1 School of Psychology, Cardiff University 2 Ty Catrin Personality Service, Pastoral Cymru Self-Harm • Self harm and attempted suicide • Very strong evidence that both self-injurious behaviours reduce quite dramatically over a period of 24 months stay at Ty Catrin. This is evidenced for both males and females. • Aggression • For females, aggression reduces, though gradually, over a 24 month period. For males we do not have evidence of such a reduction. • Genuine effect or artefact? • Perhaps the most prolific self harmers/aggressors leave early? So tested this. Looked at length of time in study versus amount of self-harm or aggression (first full month in Ty Catrin). • For self-injury, found POSITIVE correlations (self-injury: ρ = .37; attempted suicide: ρ = .30). For aggression, correlations were also POSITIVE (ρ =.22) but not significant. • Conclusion: Ty Catrin keeps the prolific self-harmers longer and discharges those that are harming less (as they should!). Likewise, for those aggressing against others. • What next? • We don’t yet have evidence for long-term follow-up (e.g., after discharge) but are gathering these data. • Our results show a DECREASE in NEGATIVE behaviours. We now want to mirror this result by showing an INCREASE in POSITIVE behaviours. To this end we are now recording instances of positive behaviours in a manner similar to our AVS system. • Pathway to a Better Future • Llwybr at Well Dyfodol • Aims • Demonstrate significant change in key behavioural indicators for patients in Ty Catrin • Background and method • Aims • During first 3 months of stay we complete a thorough assessment of each patient, that includes measures of Personality Disorder (including PCL-R), structured professional judgments (SPJ) of risk to others and the risk to the self. • These assessments are done by full time clinical psychologists • Monitored behaviour via AVS system throughout stay. For each “incident” its nature (e.g., self-harm, being victimised, absconding, etc.) is recorded along with an ordinal measure of severity • Database and project design/management and scientific analysis carried out under external supervision of Cardiff University (Professor Robert Snowden). Attempted Suicide • SPJs • The “gold-standard” measure of risk of violence is the HCR20. • Our population scores extremely high (M = 31.4) • Snowden et al. (2010)* data from over 1000 patients in independent sector MSUs: M = 18.5 • Similar results for self-injury risk (RoSP) • * Snowden, Taylor and Gray (2010) Risk assessment for future violence in individuals from an ethnic minority group. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 9, 118-123 Aggression