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Spanning the Scenario Space

Spanning the Scenario Space. Creating a good Scenario Set using Generic Methods with Specific Scenarios. Peter Thomas BAE SYSTEMS Warton 19 ISMOR August 2002. Background & Motivation. BAE SYSTEMS in not just a Military Aircraft manufacturer Interests in Air, Land, Sea & Space

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Spanning the Scenario Space

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  1. Spanning the Scenario Space Creating a good Scenario Set using Generic Methods with Specific Scenarios Peter Thomas BAE SYSTEMS Warton 19 ISMOR August 2002

  2. Background & Motivation • BAE SYSTEMS in not just a Military Aircraft manufacturer • Interests in Air, Land, Sea & Space • Strike, Manoeuvre, Strategic Deployment & Information Superiority • Need to understand our customers’ requirements • Capability within sectors • Balance between sectors • Overall defence of customer nations • This requires an analysis of many scenarios • To investigate a broad range of scenario characteristics • To test all aspects of defence capability • Need a small set of scenarios which Spans the Scenario Space BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  3. Generic versus Specific Scenarios(Pros & Cons) • Generic Scenario Sets • Designed as a Set • Produce good coverage of the Scenario Space • Sets contain a lot of Scenarios (Too many to analyse ?) • May lack realism (Constraints not added) • Scenarios may not make much sense on their own • Not normally endorsed officially • Specific Scenarios • Produced Individually • Make good sense on their own • Often realistic • Can be officially endorsed • Sets are reasonably small • Sets have poor coverage of the Scenario Space BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  4. Getting a good Scenario Set • Design your Scenarios as a set • Start off with a Generic Approach • Apply Real World Constraints • to enhance realism • to reduce the set size • Pick a Set of Scenarios which • Span the Scenario Space • Are each realistic on their own • Are not too numerous to analyse BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  5. Important Scenario Parameters & the Scenario Vector • Coalition Membership & Leadership • Enemy Characteristics Participants & Initiative • Enemy Posture • Warning Times & Build-up • Logistical Lines of Communication Deployment Difficulties • Climate & Terrain • Conflict Risk • Scale of Force Required Size & Seriousness • Type of Scenario Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain) BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  6. Parameter Values - 1 Size and Seriousness • Conflict Risk • 1 Peace Keeping (or other low risk activity) • 2 Peace Enforcement & Intervention • 3 Voluntary Participation with Significant War Fighting • 4 Defence of Overseas Territories & Treaty Obligations • 5 National Survival • Scale of Force Required • 1 Small • 2 Medium • 3 Large • 4 Very Large • 5 All National Assets • Types of Scenario • 1 Aid to Civilian Authorities • 2 Sanctions, Forward Presence & Reinforcement • 3 Peacekeeping or Civilian Evacuation • 4 Wider Peacekeeping • 5 Warfighting BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  7. Parameter Values - 2Participants and Initiative • Coalition Membership & Leadership • 1 USA Present & Leading • 2 USA Present, UK or Other NATO Lead • 3 UK Alone • 4 European NATO Members (USA Absent) • 5 Non-NATO Coalition (USA Absent) • Enemy Characteristics • 1 None • 2 Rebel Grouping • 3 Developing Nation • 4 Moderately Advanced Nation • 5 Large & Sophisticated Nation • Enemy Posture • 1 Static Defence • 2 Attack Non-Coalition forces on Ground • 3 Active Defence • 4 Enemy Attacks Coalition in Air • 5 Enemy Attacks Coalition on Ground/Sea & Air BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  8. Parameter Values - 3Deployment Difficulties • Warning Times & Build-up • 1 Years of Warning, Large Preparatory Deployment & Procurement • 2 Months of Warning, Moderate Preparatory Deployment • 3 Days of Warning, Little Preparatory Deployment • 4 Hours of Warning, Defensive Forces Prepared • 5 No Warning, Defensive Forces Surprised • Logistical Lines of Communication • 1 Short Range Land Links (Very High Capacity) • 2 Short Range Sea Links (High Capacity) • 3 Long Range Sea or Land Links (Medium Capacity) • 4 Long Range Air Links Only (Low Capacity) • 5 No National or Host Nation Bases available in Theatre • Climate & Terrain • 1 Flat Temperate • 2 Flat Desert • 3 Undulating Temperate • 4 Cold or Mountainous • 5 Jungle BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  9. The Full Scenario Space • Each Generic Scenario has a characteristic Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain) • Each Scenario Vector can be illustrated by a Diagram • The parameter values are roughly in order of difficulty • (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) should be the easiest scenario • (5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5) should be the hardest scenario • If these 9 parameters are independent there are 59 (=1 953 125) possible Generic Scenarios in this Scenario Space BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  10. The Effect of Real World Constraints • Some Scenario vectors produce reasonable scenarios, others do not • The Easiest Scenario (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) may well be reasonable • A small earthquake in San Francisco has characteristics close to this • Low Risk, Small Scale, Aid to Civilian Authorities, USA Present & Leading, No Enemy, Static Situation,Years of Warning, Short Range Land Communications,Temperate Climate with Undulating Terrain • (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,3) is quite close ! • The Hardest Scenario (5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5) Is not reasonable • National Survival, All National Assets, Warfighting,fit well withLarge & Sophisticated Nation, Enemy Attacks Coalition on Ground/Sea & Air • UK membership of NATO prevents this being combined with Non-NATO Coalition (USA Absent), • Systematic Peacetime intelligence gathering avoids No Warning - Defensive Forces Surprised • Our geography preventsNo National or Host Nation Bases available in Theatre, Jungle Climate & Terrain • (5,5,5,1,5,5,1,2,4) is about as bad as it gets !(Cold War Defence of Norway) BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  11. Maximising Scenario Space Coverage • Spanning the Scenario Space involves finding a set of scenario vectors which: • Contains each value of each parameter • Allows the effect of each parameter to be seen • In General the higher the parameter value, the fewer scenarios there will be which match those parameter values • The lower boundary of the Scenario Space will be smooth (few gaps) • The upper boundary will be much more complicated (many gaps) • Since scenarios with parameter values of 5 or 4 are rarer than those with lower values, it is worth starting at this end of the Scenario space first • Having found the scenarios near the upper boundary which exist, it is possible to choose the scenarios elsewhere in the set to give good coverage of the space BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  12. Scenarios at Risk Level 5 • Real world constraints restrict the number of scenarios at Risk Level 5(5, , , , , , , , ) =========> (5,5,5, ,5,5, , ,) ==========> (5,5,5,1,5,5,1, ,) positive correlation negative correlation • UK & European Geography give only 3 options for Logistics, Climate & Terrain • (5,5,5,1,5,5,1,2,4) Cold War Defence of Norway. • The scale is 5 only because it is part of a larger war, so it only ever happens with (5,5,5,1,5,5,1,2,1) Cold War Defence of North Germany & (5,5,5,1,5,5,1,2,3) Cold War Defence of South Germany • Could define a new Scenario (5,5,5,1,5,5,1,2,1/3/4) Defence of NATO Europe: (Poland, Czech Republic & Norway) • But in the current environment with a democratic Russia this is unlikely to happen ! • No Other Scenarios at Risk Level 5 make much sense for the UK ! • Have Scenarios of UK National Survival disappeared with the end of the Cold War ? • (This removes 58 (=390 625) scenarios from the space !) BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  13. Large & Very Large Scenarios at Risk Level 4 Choice 1 • A very large attack on NATO in Europe will have some similarities to the Risk 5 scenarios discussed previously. e.g. • Flat Temperate (4,4,5,1,5,5,2,2,1) • Undulating Temperate (4,4,5,1,5,5,2,2,3) • Large scale attacks on NATO have more options for logistics, terrain & opponent (4,3,5,1,5,5,2,2,1) (4,3,5,1,5,5,2,2,3) (4,3,5,1,5,5,2,2,4)(4,3,5,1,5,5,2,3,4) (4,3,5,1,4,5,2,3,4) • A Large scale attack on a UK dependant territory could produce a scenario with a harder coalition & extremely demanding logistics & terrain • (4,3,5,3,4,5,3,5,4) Falklands 1982 requirement • (4,2,5,3,4,5,3,5,4) Falklands 1982 response (limited by logistics !) Choice 2 BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  14. Large War-fighting Scenarios at Risk Level 3 • At this scale, 4 is a short warning time e.g. (3,3,5,1,4,5,4,3,3) • Large War-fighting Scenarios at Risk Level 3 involving the UK are likely to have a characteristic vector of the form (3,3,5,1,4,5,, ,) • An invasion of a friendly nation could provide the most difficult logistics. • If the allies were surprised & bases were lost (3,3,5,1,4,5,3,5,3) • With better surveillance, logistics may be easier (3,3,5,1,4,5,2,3,3) • The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was initially (3,3,5,1,4,5,3,3,2) • Capturing ports in Saudi Arabia would have made it (3,3,5,1,4,5,3,4,2) • Capturing airfields as well would have made it (3,3,5,1,4,5,3,5,2) Choice 3 • Once Iraq gave away the initiative it became (3,3,5,1,4,1,3,3,2)which was much easier for the US led coalition to win ! BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  15. The Coverage of the First Three Scenarios • Scenario Choice 1 is “Defence of NATO” (4,4,5,1,5,5,2,2,1) Tests: Risk, Scale, Enemy • Scenario Choice 2 is “Falklands 1982 requirement” (4,3,5,3,4,5,3,5,4) Tests: UK alone, Logistics, Terrain & Climate • Scenario Choice 3 is “Saudi Ports” (3,3,5,1,4,5,3,4,2)Tests: Terrain good for tanks BUT Logistics difficult Gaps in Coverage • No Scenarios with Coalitions 4 & 5 ( , , ,4/5, , ,, ,) • No Scenarios with Warning 4 & 5 ( , , , , , ,4/5, ,) • No Scenarios with Climate & Terrain 5 ( , , , , , , , ,5) BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  16. Conflicts with Harder Coalitions • Coalition 4 (European NATO members without the US) nearly happened in Bosnia and could conceivably have happened in a scenario as big as Kosovo. In the early stages over Serbia this was (3,3,4,4,4,3,2,3,3) and even later on over Kosovo itself it was still (3,3,4,4,4,2,2,3,3). Choice 4 • Coalition 5 (Non-NATO Coalition, US absent) would only occur in very special circumstances. • A crisis of interest to many NATO and Non-NATO countries would interest the US • But a US presence could be denied • Such a scenario would have to be low risk, small or medium scale, and would probably happen near the territory of a major power. Scenario characteristics might be (1,2,3,5,2,2,2,3,3) or maybe (1,2,3,5,2,2,2,4,3) Choice 5 BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  17. Filling Gaps in Coverage • Two gaps in the scenario coverage are an enemy which attacks in the air and an attack with no warning. • A developing country on the edge of the NATO region could attack a NATO member using a ballistic missile. This could produce a scenario like (4,2,5,1,3,4,5,3,2) • This might be in response to some unwelcome action by our allies; such as enforcement of sanctions. (2,2,2,1,3,2,2,3,2)(Posture 2 is allowed to include activity at sea which our coalition would oppose) Choice 6 Choice 7 • Three more gaps are an attack with only hours of warning, a scenario in the jungle, and a coalition where the US is present but does not lead. • If a rebel group (financed by drugs destined for the American market) attacked part of a former British protectorate a scenario like (2,2,3,2,2,2,4,3,5) could exist Choice 8 • All that now remains is a scenario with lots of 1’s • Perhaps a small flood in East Anglia would suffice here ?(1,1,1,3,1,1,1,1,1) Choice 9 BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  18. The Chosen Scenario Set Risk & Scale • (4,4,5,1,5,5,2,2,1) Defence of NATO • (4,3,5,3,4,5,3,5,4) UK recapture of Falklands • (3,3,5,1,4,5,3,4,2) Defence of Kuwait & Saudi Ports • (3,3,4,4,4,3,2,3,3) Euro-NATO Kosovo Intervention • (1,2,3,5,2,2,2,4,3) Unusual Coalition Peacekeeping • (4,2,5,1,3,4,5,3,2) Ballistic Missile attack on NATO • (2,2,2,1,3,2,2,3,2) Sanctions Enforcement • (2,2,3,2,2,2,4,3,5) Jungle Drug War • (1,1,1,3,1,1,1,1,1) East Anglian Floods LogisticsTerrain & Climate Coalitions Posture & Warning WarningTerrain & Climate BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  19. Review of Method  • Design your Scenarios as a set  • Start off with a Generic Approach  • Apply Real World Constraints • to enhance realism • to reduce the set size  • Pick a Set of Scenarios which • Span the Scenario Space • Are each realistic on their own • Are not too numerous to analyse BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

  20. Alternative Scenario Sets • The Scenario set selected here is carefully chosen but is NOT unique • There are many additional scenarios which may be of interest e.g. • Twin Towers (1,1,1,1,2,5,5,1,1) • Afghanistan (2,2,4,1,2,3,3,4,4) BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1 Scenario Vector = (Risk, Scale, Type, Coalition, Enemy, Posture, Warning, Logistics, Terrain)

  21. Questions ? BAES-FSDA-GEN-PN-00350, 1

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