Debating the Causes of WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3 Levels

1. Debating the Causes of WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3 Levels Volusia County PS 2012 Workshop Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College

2. Causes of World War I • Why 1914 Matters • Incomplete Explanations • A chauffeur’s wrong turn? A withered arm? • Arms Race? • Thinking War was Impossible? • What Causes War? “3 Lenses” • 3rd Lens: Rise of German Power • Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances • The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) • 2nd Lens: Domestic Crises • Crises within Multinational Empires • Fischer Thesis • 1st Lens: Ideas • Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories • “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) • “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) • “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) • “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)

3. Great War Basics • 1914-1918 • Central Powers vs. Allies • Dead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilian • Firsts • Use of chemical weapons • Mass attacks on civilians from air • Genocide • Immobile Front • US in European War • Widespread Collapse & Social Exhaustion • New World Coming

4. “The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.” Sir Edward Grey, British Foreign Secretary, 1905-1916 1862-1933

5. Niall Ferguson • No persuasive evidence that Germany intended to “conquer the world” • Germany’s September 1914 Program would have created German-dominated customs union • That’s what we have today – 90 years later!

6. The Chauffeur’s Fault

7. Kaiser Wilhelm II1959-1941reign 1888-1918 Psychological Pathologies?

9. The Naval RevolutionHMS Dreadnought 1907 Irrational Arms Race?

10. Dreadnought schema

11. Naval Strength, 1914 Country Personnel Major Warships Dreadnoughts Russia 54,000 4 France 68,000 10 Britain 209,000 29 20 Germany 79,000 17 13 A-H 16,000 3

12. Confidence that Globalization won’t let it happen Economist, 10/97

13. War is not rational – Norman Angell • Norman Angell • 1872-1967 • Nobel Peace Prize, 1933 • Read Mill’s “Essay on Liberty” at age 12 • Great Illusion, 1910 • “…military and political power give a nation no commercial advantage, that it is an economic impossibility for one nation to seize or destroy the wealth of another, or for one nation to enrich itself by subjugating another.”

14. Kenneth Waltz • Emeritus Professor, UC Berkeley • Most cited Neo-Realist • Man, The State, & War (1959) • Theory of International Politics (1979) • Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Would More Be Better? (1995)

15. What Causes War?Waltz & 3 Images • First Image: Nature of man • Augustine, Reinhold Niebuhr • Waltz: Why This Doesn’t Work • Second Image: Defects in Regimes • Woodrow Wilson, Lenin • The Liberal Democratic Peace • Waltz: Why This Doesn’t Work • Third Image: Structure of World Politics • Anarchy & Security Dilemmas

16. Rise of German PowerIndustrial Power (UK 1900 = 100) Country 1880 1900 1913 1928 UK 73.3 [100] 127.2 135 USA 46.9 127.8 298.1 533 Germany 27.4 71.2 137.7 214 France 25.1 36.8 57.3 74 Russia 24.5 47.5 76.6 72 A-H 14 25.6 40.7 -- Italy 8.1 13.6 22.5 37 Japan 7.6 13 25.1 45 Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

17. Rise of German Power: Military Manpower Country 1880 1890 1900 1914 Russia 791k 677k 1.16 M 1.35 M France 543k 542k 715k 910k Germany 426k 504k 694k 891k UK 367k 420k 624k 532k A-H 246k 346k 385k 444k Italy 216k 284k 255k 345k USA 34k 39k 127k 164k Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

18. Rise of German Power:Population (in millions) Country 1890 1900 1910 1913 Russia 116.8 135.6 159.3 175.1 USA 62.6 75.9 91.9 97.1 Germany 49.2 56.0 65.5 66.9 A-H 42.6 46.7 50.8 52.1 France 38.3 38.9 39.5 39.7 UK 37.3 41.1 44.9 45.6 Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

19. Rise of German PowerUrbanization (%) Country 1890 1900 1913 UK 29.9 32.8 34.6 USA 15.3 18.7 23.1 Germany 11.3 15.5 21.1 France 11.7 13.3 14.8 A-H 5.6 6.6 8.8 Russia 3.6 4.8 7.0 Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

20. Alliance System, 1914

21. Building an entente • 1904: France & UK begin conversations • 1905: Russia nearly collapses • 1907: France, Russia, UK form entente cordiale

22. Building: Another Way • Wilson: How many British troops do you need if Germany attacks? • Foch: One. And we will see to it that he is killed. • 1910 General Henry Wilson General Ferdinand Foch

23. Count Alfred von Schlieffen1833-1913

24. The Schlieffen Plan

25. German Timetable • Liege open by M+12 • Brussels by M+19 • French frontier on M+22 • Thionville-St. Quentin by M+31 • Paris by M+39 19 22 12 31 39

26. Mobilization Chronology 6/28 Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand 7/23 AH ultimatum to Serbia 7/25 Russia begins pre-mobilization 7/26 Russia issues “period preparatory to war” alert” 7/28 AH declares war on Serbia, begins mobilization 7/29 Russia begins partial mobilization, then general mobilization, then cancels mobilization

27. Mobilization Chronology 7/30 Russia orders general mobilization (1700) 7/31 Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200) 7/31 German “Danger of War”alert (1300) 7/31 German ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilization 7/31 French mobilization, 10 km withdrawal 8/1 German mobilization (1700) 8/1 Germany declares war on Russia (1900) 8/2 German invasion of Luxembourg 8/2 British Cabinet orders Royal Navy to protect English Channel 8/2 German ultimatum to Belgium (1900) 8/3 UK orders army mobilization 8/3 Germany declares war on France 8/4 Germany invades Belgium (0802)

28. Causes of World War I • What 1914 Matters • Incomplete Explanations • A chauffeur’s wrong turn? A withered arm? • Arms Race? • Thinking War was Impossible? • 3rd Image: Rise of German Power • Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances • The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) • 2nd Image: Domestic Crises • Crises within Multinational Empires • Fischer Thesis • 1st Image: Ideas • Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories • “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) • “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) • “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) • “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)

29. Austria-Hungary • Head of State: Kaiser Franz-Josef I (r 1848-1916) • Population: 52 M • Federal Empire • Languages: 24% German, 20% Hungarian, 13% Czech, 10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian, 6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5% Slovene, 3% Italian

30. CommanderFranz Conrad von Hötzendorf • 1852-1925 • Chief of Staff, KuK Army, 1906-1917 • Proposed War with Serbia 25 times, 1913 • Dismissed, 1917, by new Emperor Karl

31. Socialist Vote Date Percentage Socialist Total of Vote Seats Parl A-H 1911 25.4 33 France 1914 16.8 103 Germany 1912 34.8 110 397 Russia 1912 n.a. 24 Britain 1910 6.4 42 670 Ferguson, Pity of War

32. Fischer Thesis • Fritz Fischer, German Historian, 1908-1999 • German leaders obsessed with internal threat of Socialist revolution • German domestic pressure groups produced aggressive foreign policy • Germany deliberately began WW1 in bid for world power • Germany intended to commit ethnic cleansing in Russia, then re-colonize with Germans • Continuity in German foreign policy • Huge Controversy

33. Wobbly Autocracy?Internal Unrestin Russia Evidence of Unrest • Troops Used to suppress internal unrest • 1901 155 • 1903 322 • Jan 1909 13,507 • All 1909 114,108 • 1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked • 1913: 100,000 arrests for “attacks on state power” Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

34. Wobbly Authoritarian?Internal Unrest in China Murray Tanner, “China Rethinks Unrest,” 2004

35. China’s Demographic Challenge Global Average = 103-107 Boy:Girl

36. 1st Image: Ideas & War in 1914 • German Author General von Bernhardi,1849-1930 • Germany & the Next War • The Right to Make War • The Duty to Make War • World Power or Downfall • War as biological necessity based on natural law requiring struggle for existence • Key Ideas • Militarism • Social Darwinism • War as Moral Corrective

37. Causes of World War I • What 1914 Matters • Incomplete Explanations • A chauffeur’s wrong turn? A withered arm? • Arms Race? • Thinking War was Impossible? • 3rd Image: Rise of German Power • Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances • The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) • 2nd Image: Domestic Crises • Crises within Multinational Empires • Fischer Thesis • 1st Image: Ideas • Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories • “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) • “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) • “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) • “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)

38. Accidental or Inadvertent War?Levy’s Preference Scheme AH LW>>CW>>NP>>WW Germany LW>>CW>>NP>>WW Russia NP>>WW>>CW>>LW France NP>>LW>>WW>>CW UK NP>>LW>>WW>?LW Levy in Avoiding War

39. Barbara Tuchman1912-1989 Spiral Theory

40. Spiral Theory: What’s Luxemburg Got to Do With This? KW2 aka Supreme War Lord Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg General Moltke

41. Cult of the Offensive?

42. World Politics in an Offensive Dominant World • Arguments for territorial expansion seem persuasive • Strong incentives for preemptive attack • Strong incentives for preventive war • Push diplomacy in crisis • Premium on secrecy

43. The Cult of the Offensive Assumption: Defensive military strategies dominated World War I. Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt offensive strategies? • Michael Howard: Logic of “Men Against Fire”

44. Map: Ger penetration 1918

45. Map: German control highpoint 1918

46. Elan Vitale!

47. Losses: KIAAug-Nov 1914 306,000 30,000 241,000

48. Key Lessons of 1914 • “German Revolution” pressuring international stability • Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis Cascade • Incomplete Democratization (or Liberalization) Dangerous • Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or Good

49. Some Conclusions • Deep Causes vs. Trigger • Immense Pressures Creating Strong Pressure for Conflict • Some Pressures Look Similar Today