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How Heathrow is using R to make tomorrow's connections happen

Discover how Heathrow is leveraging R modeling to improve connections and reduce misconnect rates, benefiting over 80 million passengers in 2018. Learn about the simplified baggage flow process, the implementation of Ophelia for demand matching, and plans for future improvements in punctuality and stakeholder engagement amidst challenges of expansion. Explore the complexities of driving home for Christmas and find out how Heathrow is tackling baggage assumptions and optimizing passenger experiences. Any questions? Let's connect!

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How Heathrow is using R to make tomorrow's connections happen

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  1. Mitchell Stirling Baggage Capacity and Modelling Manager Sept-2019 How Heathrow is using R to make tomorrow's connections happen

  2. How many passengers use Heathrow? 2018 – 80,124,537 passengers

  3. Connecting People

  4. Making connections

  5. Baggage at Heathrow • Misconnect rate has halved in past five years • This meant, for example, almost 100,000 passengers travelling with bag 2018 vs 2017 • Most misconnecting bags are due to delays to arriving aircraft

  6. Bags Per Passenger (BPP) Short Haul Flight 0.5 BPP 100 bags 200 Passengers Long Haul Flight 2.0 BPP 200 Passengers 400 bags

  7. Simplified baggage flow chart Check-In Arriving transfer bag Hold Baggage Screening Sortation Lateral Early Bag Store

  8. What did we do before?

  9. Engaging Mango Developed new version of Baggage Demand Generation – Ophelia from old PERL script model

  10. Who is Ophelia? • The cat nearer the camera.

  11. What is Ophelia?

  12. What does it do now?

  13. Matching inbound transfer demand with outbound Arriving flight: From SFO 150 Terminating bags 37 Transferring bags Departing flight: To MAN 37 Checked-in bags 20 Transferring bags

  14. Improvements to date

  15. Punctuality: The elephant in the room? On paper Arr. 1200 Dep. 1430 2hrs 30 mins between flights. Minimum connection time 90 mins Reality Scheduled 1200 Arr. 1400 Dep. 1430 Early Bag Store c. 1230 to 1530 30 mins between flights. Minimum connection time 90 mins. Bag travels on later flight. Goes to EBS Dep. 1700

  16. What is our improvement plan I? • Now we are speaking to stakeholders, customers and interested parties in order to understand priorities that will drive value and need.

  17. What is our improvement plan II? Monty Hall Problem

  18. Challenges of expansion • Growth will not be ‘a few percentage points’ every year • New infrastructure to complicate baseline assumptions • New routes, airlines, flight times • Baggage assumptions used today likely to be wrong

  19. Driving home for Christmas • How to get the family from one side of South East England to the other?

  20. If not a Maserati now, when? Other ways to smooth demand…

  21. In Conclusion

  22. Questions?

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