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THE RED INVASION

THE RED INVASION. Pavin Chachavalpongpun Fellow, ISEAS. The Emergence of the RED. Why RED? Versus Yellow – People’s Alliance for Democracy Red = Rebellious Red = Colour of the Communists? Born in 2006 Opposing military coup As a substitute for the old regime?.

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THE RED INVASION

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  1. THE RED INVASION Pavin Chachavalpongpun Fellow, ISEAS

  2. The Emergence of the RED • Why RED? • Versus Yellow – People’s Alliance for Democracy • Red = Rebellious • Red = Colour of the Communists? • Born in 2006 • Opposing military coup • As a substitute for the old regime?

  3. Development of the Red Network • Backed by rural masses • Backed by the opposition party: Puea Thai • Pro-Thaksin agenda? • Creating a modern institution • Provider of legitimacy to Thai political system • Weaken the power of the ruling elites

  4. Means and Methods • Relying on street protests • Working with political parties • Operating on behalf of the grassroots

  5. The May Crisis • The Thaksin Court Case of February 2010 • Protests began in March • 10 April First Clash • PM Abhisit offered early election, rejected • Khattiya Sawasdipol assassinated 13 May • Crackdown 19 May • City burned

  6. Objectives • Adopting a pro-democracy ideology • Denouncing the military intervention • Calling for election and Abhisit’s resignation • Calling for constitution amendment • Creating the ungovernability situation • Pattaya Saga • May 19, 2010

  7. Leadership • Moderate voices • Radical voices • Second generation • Smaller cells in the provinces • Lower and middle classes in the rural areas

  8. Funding • Thaksin? • Donation • Rich urbanites • Rich military men?

  9. Obstacles • Dealing with anti-monarchy sentiment • Stripping itself of Thaksinised image • Reconfiguring the political domain • Battling with the military

  10. What’s next? • Radicals gone underground? • Accusation of a terrorist network • Election • Reconciliation, Unilateral plan • Is Abhisit a proxy? • Thaksin still fighting, war on global stage • Those in the rural areas still have resentment • Extension of emergency rule • End of Thai conflict?

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