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Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz

Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource Economics University Bonn Kaley Hart Institute for European Environmental Policy London. Presentation Overview. Project overview Introduction to CAPRI Aims and objectives of CAPRI-RD

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Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz

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  1. Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource Economics University Bonn Kaley Hart Institute for European Environmental Policy London

  2. Presentation Overview • Project overview • Introduction to CAPRI • Aims and objectives of CAPRI-RD • The CAPRI-RD model • Promotion and Training • Example applications • Audience • Current status The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  3. Purpose of Study Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Rural Development • To maintain and develop the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact model as an important tool for agricultural policy impact analysis. • To extend and apply the model to cover the wider impacts of rural development policy The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  4. The project • Seventh Framework Programme (FPVII) Project • Project spans 4 years, from March 2009 to March 2013 • €2.3 million in EU contributions • 11 Partners – combining economic modelling and policy experts • Scientific officer: Hans-Jörg Lutzeyer (DG RTD) • Co-ordinator: Wolfgang Britz (University of Bonn)

  5. Project partners The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  6. What is CAPRI? • Developed since 1997 with EU support • Allows analysis of: market policies; premium systems; quotas; set-aside regimes; environmental policies; etc. • Regarding: global scale supply, demand and trade; EU farm income and management; environmental indicators; prices; budgets … • Has been applied: • to a range of different CAP reform scenarios (Agenda 2000, MTR, Sugar Market, Dairy, Health Check) • to other policy questions (WTO, bi-lateral trade agreements, standards or tradable permits for GHG emissions, …) • “Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact” • a “multi-purpose” economic modelling system for EU’s agriculture

  7. Aims of CAPRI-RD “To allow forward looking (ex-ante) impact assessment of CAP Pillars I and II and other policies targeting agriculture in rural regions.” To extend CAPRI to allow for analysis of rural development (Pillar II) measures for agricultural and non-agricultural activities Integration of databases on Pillar II expenditure and modelling impact assessment in rural areas Compiling results through indicators aligned as far as possible with the CMEF and fully integrated into the model The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  8. Objectives of CAPRI-RD project To buildan open source harmonised impact assessment tool for CAP pillars and II By extending CAPRI For EU, candidate and potential candidate countries, at NUTS 2 regional resolution Focussing on agriculture and related economic activities Complementing other approaches for evaluating CAP measures To applythe tool on real world policy questions Annual market outlook Annual policy impact assessment of scenarios defined by stakeholders, e.g. CAP post 2013 scenarios The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  9. The CAPRI-RD tool Pillar II also targets the non-agricultural sector: => CAPRI-RD requires economic models for other sectors => BioEconomic modelling chain within CAPRI-RD: The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  10. The CAPRI-RD project The CAPRI-RD project thus includes the: • Development of a layer of regional CGEssequentially linked to regional supply models of CAPRI: • Social Accounting Matrices at national/regional level • Development of a suitable CGE template model • Development of indicators for impact assessment: • Drawing wherever possible on the CMEF indicators • Based on results simulated with the CAPRI-RD tool • Calculated at an appropriate scale, with the ability to upscale to a higher level The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  11. Spatial downscaling • This allows spatially explicit investigation of environmental impacts • 1km2 grid cells can be upscaled to show the effect of policy scenarios on target indicators • Indicator calculators are aligned with the CMEF • CAPRI-RD generates outputs that are can be exploited through the GUI, including graphs, tables and maps • Results generated at the farm type, NUTS 2, Country and global regions including EU level • CAPRI-RD can break downland use, yields and input use results to clusters of 1km2grid cells The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  12. CAPRI-RD Tool Overview The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  13. Maintenance and Review • Regular database updates(current 2003-2005, 2005-2007 in preparation) • Regular integration of recent market outlooks(DG-AGRI, AGLINK, FAPRI) into CAPRI baseline (current 2020) • Maintenance and improvement of code base, Graphical User Interface and other software infrastructure • Data quality work (outlier control etc.) • Integration of changes in decided / upcoming regulations • Review and update of modelling the SFP The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  14. Promotion and Training • Annual training sessions for (potential) users • CAPRI as an open source product can be downloaded for free • Web-site where all deliverables are available and project progress is documented • Conference contributions and publications in scientific journals • New GUI to enable ease of use • Gathering of feedback to improve usability

  15. Example applications Study triggered by a proposal of the German Scientific Board to the Department for Environment(“Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen”) Problem: Bio-diversity should be promoted everywhere and habitats should be interconnected Agri-Environment measures (AEMs) are taken up more in marginal areas and are struggling to penetratehigh-yielding intensive regions Key question: How might biodiversity be promoted across all farm types in Europe? CAPRI-RD analysed two scenarios to explore how this problem might be dealt with: 10% of land not in HNV/N2K should be devoted to set-aside, or; 20% of Pillar I is modulated and transferred to existing AEMs to increase uptake The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  16. Example applications Study proposed by the Department for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) in the UK. Scenario To inform the UK position on CAP post 2013 The UK is one of the EU Member States asking for reforms which include significant shifts in CAP money from Pillar 1 to Pillar II Key question: What are possible consequences of large reductions in the Single Farm Payment or a WTO compromise? CAPRI-RD modelled three scenarios: Pillar I support completely dismantled(no SFP, no SAPS, no market policy support) A reduction in tariffs, increase in market access tariff rate quotas, no export subsidies Combination of the two The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  17. Audience • Stakeholders at the European and national/regional level • e.g. DG-AGRI, DG-ENV, DG-REGIO, the European Environmental Agency, industry, farming groups, environmental stakeholders. • Analysts applying the tool for policy impact work • e.g. DG-JRC, or other research institutions. • New users • researchers / institutions not yet working with CAPRI The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

  18. Current status • CAPRI-RD tool operational(constant updating and development) • Integration of the most financially significant Pillar II measures into the CAPRI regional supply models (agri-environment and LFA measures) • Already three training sessions (Germany, Finland, UK) – open also to non-project team members • Turkey and Western Balkans integrated in CAPRI • Work on regional CGEs ahead of schedule: • National SAMs available • Data for regional SAMs prepared • Methodology for regional SAM generation approved • Prototype link with CAPRI working • Review of indicators underway • First scenario impact analysis sent to DG-AGRI

  19. Thank you for your attention For more information please see www.ilr1.uni-bonn.de/Agpo/rsrch/capri-rd/caprird_e.htm or www.capri-model.org or contact Wolfgang.Britz@ilr.uni-bonn.de

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