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Is Scotland Set to Separate?

Is Scotland Set to Separate?. John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @ whatscotsthink. Turnout Prospects. Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls). A Little Movement in the Polls?.

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Is Scotland Set to Separate?

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  1. Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @whatscotsthink

  2. Turnout Prospects Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

  3. A Little Movement in the Polls? Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

  4. The Post Christmas Sequence

  5. The Don’t Knows

  6. Squeezing the Don’t Knows

  7. Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos MORI

  8. Possible Changers - ICM Source: ICM Research

  9. The Cross-Party Transfer

  10. The Gender Gap

  11. Partly a Question of Identity Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

  12. Scotland’s Future - Economy? Source: ICM Research

  13. Scotland Future’s - Equality Source: ICM Research

  14. Economy Matters (Much) More Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

  15. The Gender Gap on the Economy Source: ICM Research

  16. Conclusion • Be ready for a high turnout! • The referendum race has narrowed a bit • But Yes side still face a substantial challenge • Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over • Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones • Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union • Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women

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