Systems Engineering Technical Vision for 2020

1. Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Risk Systems Engineering Economics History Management Legal Aspects Society Supply Chain Logistics Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Systems Engineering Technical Vision for 2020 Dr. John C. HSU, Systems Engineering TC

2. Historic errors on technology ! The Telephone has too many serious problems to become a genuine means of communication. This device has by its nature no value for us! Western Union, 1876 Worldwide, I think there may be a market for some 5 Computers! Thomas Watson, IBM Boss, 1943

3. What is Systems Engineering? Systems Engineering is an interdisciplinary approach and means to enable the realization of successful systems. It focuses on defining customer needs and required functionality early in the development cycle, documenting requirements, then proceeding with design synthesis and system validation while considering the complete problem: • - Operations - Cost & Schedule • - Performance - Training & Support • - Test - Disposal • - Manufacturing Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production and to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs.

4. INCOSE Systems Engineering Technical Vision • Project Objective: Converge on a shared technical vision for SE community of practice by including other SE Technical Organizations (AIAA, GEIA G-47, IEEE, NDIA, IEE & Others)

5. Scope of Effort The SE Technical Vision encompasses Six Focus Areas: • Systems Engineering Drivers • Systems Architecting • Systems Development • Systems Engineering Management Methods • Systems Engineering Standards • Systems Engineering Education & Research

6. Systems Engineering Drivers • Global Engineering Business Environment • A need to address integrated multiculturalism, world peace, management of natural resources, health systems,… • Engineering efforts must consider social and ecological impacts of decisions • Growth in international cooperation of defense, information technology, communication, transportation, energy, and other sectors The International Space Station is the largest and most complex international scientific project in history (photo credit: NASA, with permission)

7. Systems Engineering Drivers(continued) • Future Systems • A new worldview : systems of systems • Emerging systems will be evolutionary and adaptive • Systems will become more complex in their composition, capabilities, and interfaces • Increase in “super systems”, such as Air Traffic Control Systems and Intelligent Transportation • Aggregation of systems of systems will drive the need to network new and existing systems • A need to implement continuous technology updates throughout the lifecycle • Long-range impacts and supportability will increase

8. Systems Engineering Drivers(continued) • Systems Engineering Evolution • Emphasis on increasingly complex technological, human, and organizational systems • Ensure that systems "not only do things right, but do the right things" • SE trends to combine : operations research, cybernetics, simulation, decision analysis, requirements management, risk management, logistics, manufacturing, verification and validation, business, economic analysis, … • Harmonization of engineering standards, practices, and education is on the way • A trend towards differentiation into levels : system of systems (e.g., a transportation network), individual systems (e.g., an automobile), components (e.g., an engine, a gear box)

9. Systems ArchitectingState of the Art & drivers • Evolving Scope • The system no longer consists of just hardware and software, but also includes data, facilities, personnel, organizations, materials, services, techniques, … • Some awareness of system architecture • the need for a more formalized architecture modeling approach – example: DoDAF (DoD Architecture Framework) • Connecting elements of many different systems to achieve greater synergies and functionality • Breaking into small components, solving each, then integrating pieces back into a whole solution is no longer sufficient. There is a need for more and better “synthesis” techniques that can produce more robust and balanced system solutions.

10. SE SA SA SE SA SE Systems ArchitectingState of the Art & drivers (continued) • Systems analysis emphasis • System Architecture is both an art (how to combine elements to create a solution) and a science (the solution must match the physical laws and a level of efficiency). • Increasing body of knowledge (e.g., frameworks) • A need to better-understood architectural principles and practices • Unclear relationship between SA & SE • Due to the lack of common concepts and terminology SE & SA result in semantic confusion.

11. Systems Development Emerging Drivers • SysML will provide ability to create & execute models of systems and partition SW & HW • System Architecture Frameworks provide system views based on underlying unified product/system information model • Semantic models based on XML enable exchange of data between organizations domains • Semantic web & ontologies are leading to richer, distributed information models • Product data management environments for capturing data • Distributed simulation environments enable virtual analysis over geo-distributed teams & across lifecycle • COSYSMO under development as basis for estimating system engineering costs • Collaboration technologies developed to support virtual teams

12. Systems Engineering Management Methods State of the Art & drivers • Modeling and simulation tools are looked at as the mechanism for accelerating development programs • The use of tools increases, the risk of becoming tool dependent grows • Tendency to make short term decisions without regard to the long term consequences • An international “common framework, common language” is evolving • A new term appears = co-opetition (cooperative competition) • Programs continue to place more emphasis on lower unit costs when lower life cycle costs are more significant • The next generation of engineers will be more comfortable working with distributed databases, distributed business partners, and web-based applications

13. Today these 3 types of modeling studies are separate initiatives Harmonization & reconciliation - concurrent initiatives Must work together Systems Engineering StandardsEmerging Drivers Semantic models (Entities/Relationships) AP233, SysML profiles … Processes models (Activities & outcomes) 632, 1220, 15288, … Semiotic models (symbols, diagrams) FFBD, StateCharts, UML 2.0 …

14. SE Education and ResearchState of the Art • Increasing demands for SE education and training • Undergraduate engineering programs evolving to more systems-centered disciplinary programs • More complex university capstone projects • Growing international competition in education and training • Research into systems engineering topics increasing, but topics not well defined RoboCup 2003 International Robotics Competition (photo credit: Patrick Riley, with permission

15. 2010 Systems Engineering Technical Vision • The US DoD is focusing on network-centric, interoperable warfare and effects integrated over all Commands, Services, and Agencies. • “Systems of systems” and “Architecture-first” viewpoints will lead to a “federated” guidance. • Directly executable models will be realized as operational systems in the arena of systems development.

16. 2010 Systems Engineering Technical Vision (continued) • Systems engineering practices are applied routinely to organizations as well as products. • A Body of Knowledge will exist that truly transcends systems engineering applications domains. • Alignment of systems engineering standards with ISO/IEC 15288 will be achieved.

17. 2010 Systems Engineering Technical Vision (continued) • Systems engineering certification will become a required part of the career path of many organizations.

18. 2020 Systems Engineering Technical Vision • The development of distributed semantic models for specific technical domains will lead to semantic models for organizations and elements of society. • “Soft” or “intelligent systems” will add significant effort to up front systems engineering with the benefit of enabling planned change at an industry or society level.

19. 2020 Systems Engineering Technical Vision (continued) • Engineering textbooks will have been re-written, tools based on this theory will have been validated against both theory and empirical evidence. • Management process models and simulations will provide real time planning by taking into account risk outcomes, changing political, financial, technical and personnel factors, etc.

20. 2020 Systems Engineering Technical Vision (continued) • A high level systems engineering standard is envisioned that will provide a means to achieve systems engineering integration across applicable commercial, government and educational domains. • The high-level systems engineering standard envisioned for the future should be open and extendable.

21. 2020 Systems Engineering Technical Vision (continued) • Systems engineering will become an established international “inter-disciplinary connector” or a “meta-discipline.”

22. Questions on this presentation?