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Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Scenarios for Atlantic Canada

Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Scenarios for Atlantic Canada. Climate Processes. [Source: Harvey (2000): Global Warming: The Hard Science ]. GCM Characteristics. GFDL-R15 (7.5° x 4.4°; 500 x 600km). CCSR/NIES (5.625° x 5.625°). CSIROMk2b (5.625° x 3.25°). Increasing resolution.

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Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Scenarios for Atlantic Canada

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  1. Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Scenarios for Atlantic Canada

  2. Climate Processes [Source: Harvey (2000): Global Warming: The Hard Science]

  3. GCM Characteristics GFDL-R15 (7.5° x 4.4°; 500 x 600km) CCSR/NIES (5.625° x 5.625°) CSIROMk2b (5.625° x 3.25°) Increasing resolution CGCM1 & 2 (3.75° x 3.75°) HadCM2 & 3 (3.75° x 2.5°) GFDL-R30 (3.75° x 2.24°) ECHAM4 & NCAR-PCM (2.8125° x 2.8125°; 300 x 300 km)

  4. Land-sea masks

  5. GCM Orography

  6. How well do GCMs perform? • MIP: Model intercomparison projects • AMIP: Atmospheric model • CMIP: Coupled model • PMIP - mid-Holocene (approx. 6000 BP); Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 BP)

  7. Temperature [Source: IPCC TAR]

  8. Precipitation [Source: IPCC TAR]

  9. Detection and Attribution Natural Forcing Only [Source: IPCC TAR]

  10. Detection and Attribution Anthropogenic Forcing Only [Source: IPCC TAR]

  11. Detection and Attribution All Forcings [Source: IPCC TAR]

  12. IPCC TAR Conclusions • GCMs provide credible simulations of both annual mean climate and the climatological seasonal cycle over broad continental scales. Clouds and humidity remain sources of significant uncertainty, but improvements in simulations of these have been made. • Analysis of, and confidence in, extreme events simulated within climate models is emerging, particularly for storm tracks and storm frequency. • Performance in simulating ENSO and NAO has improved.

  13. 2xCO2 Global-mean temperature (°C) DT 1xCO2 Time (10 years) GCM evolution EQUILIBRIUM EXPERIMENTS (1980s)

  14. (°C) Global-mean temperature GCM Evolution TRANSIENT EXPERIMENTS Climate change integration COLD START (late 1980s) t2 t1 WARM START (early 1990s)

  15. A1FI - HadCM3, CCSR/NIES A1T - CCSR/NIES A1 - CCSR/NIES, CSIROMk2b CGCM2 HadCM3 ECHAM4 CSIROMk2b CCSR/NIES GFDL-R30 NCAR-PCM HadCM3 CSIROMk2b CCSR/NIES

  16. Maritimes: land only

  17. SRES A2: Winter 2050s Temperature Change (°C)

  18. Temperature Change (°C) SRES A2: Summer 2050s

  19. Precipitation Change (%) SRES A2: Winter 2050s

  20. Precipitation Change (%) SRES A2: Summer 2050s

  21. Precipitation Change (%) SRES B2: Summer 2050s

  22. Spatial Scale Issues

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