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POSTER : OC- 000---

Opportunities and Challenges in Monsoon Prediction in a Changing Climate (OCHAMP), 21 -25 February 2012, IITM, PUNE, INDIA. POSTER : OC- 000---. Understanding South Asian Monsoon Variability In a Changing Climate H. Annamalai , V. Prasanna and P. Pillai

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POSTER : OC- 000---

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  1. Opportunities and Challenges in Monsoon Prediction in a Changing Climate (OCHAMP), 21-25February 2012, IITM, PUNE, INDIA POSTER : OC- 000--- Understanding South Asian Monsoon Variability In a Changing Climate H. Annamalai, V. Prasanna and P. Pillai IPRC/SOEST University of Hawaii. (hanna@hawaii.edu) FOCUS: Will the severe weak monsoons and extended monsoon breaks increase in a warmer world? ENSO - monsoon CM2.1 Control simulation (2000-years) PDF of rainfall over South Asia (7oN-28oN, 65oE-100oE) andNino3.4 SST AIR (std) = 0.52 mm/day Nino3.4 (std) = 1.3oC Corr = -0.45 Less normal ENSO Severe Weak (droughts) Severe Strong (floods) Less normal monsoons Extended monsoon breaks Stronger El Nino La Nina? Extended monsoon breaks over central India More severe weak monsoons IMD – Station rainfall (1951-2008) Nino3.4 standard deviations (pre-industrial control run) Strong monsoons? Monsoon rainfall standard deviations “sampling problems – robustness” Turner and Annamalai (2012) Extended breaks = Intraseasonal variability + boundary forcing Break days Prasanna and Annamalai (2012, J. Climate) Experimental Design Solutions from experiments (a) CM2.1 (Ts) trend (1951-2000) rainfall Moist static energy budget – extended monsoon break vorticity “what we know for sure?” (b) Projected SST JJAS (SRES B1) (a) June-September Rainfall anomalies Pillai and Annamalai (2012) J. Atmos. Sci, 69, 97-115 pp West Pacific_trend+ El Nino (b) June-September Rainfall anomalies SRES_SST+El Nino AM2.1 solutions from various experiments “rainfall anomalies stronger over South Asia” • Summary • ENSO and monsoon – more variable in the future, • AGCM solutions suggest severe weak monsoons and extended breaks have high predictability Break days over south Asia AM2.1 solutions – Forced with CM2.1 composite SST anomalies (El Nino) ACGM Experiments Days from 15 March Are the seasonal rainfall anomalies predictable? 25 members ensemble (01 March to 30 November) JJAS rainfall and 850 hPa wind response Ensemble mean (El Nino run minus CTL run) El Nino Support the hypothesis of Charney and Shukla (1981); Shukla (1998) Rainfall response over Arabian Sea – systematic error in the model

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