Comparing Turkey’s and the EU’s Neighborhood Policy

1. Comparing Turkey’s and the EU’s Neighborhood Policy Kemal Kirişci Boğaziçi University Middle East Technical University, Ankara April 4, 2011

2. References: • Kirişci, K. “The transformation of Turkish foreign policy: the rise of the trading state” New Perspectives on Turkey, No. 40, (2009) pp. 29-57. • Evin, A. et al. Getting to Zero: Turkey, Its Neighborhood and the West (Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC, 2010) (Collaborative work) • Kirişci, K. et al A Neighborhood Rediscovered: Turkey’s Transatlantic Value in the Middle East, (Brussels Forum Paper Series, German Marshall Fund, Washington DC, March 2010) • Linden, Ronald (ed.) Turkey and Its Neighbors: Foreign Relations in Transition (Lyne Rienner, forthcoming, summer 2011)

3. Traditional Turkish Foreign Policy • Security considerations dominate • Major players are the MFA and the military • Resort to coercive and confrontational methods not unusual

4. Turkey’s “new” Foreign Policy • Rise of the “trading state” (Richard Rosecrance) • Influence of economic-business considerations and demands for “markets” surge • Influence of the MFA and the military erodes • Rise of new bureaucracies e.g. Ministry of energy, Undersecretariat for Trade • Rise of business interest groups • Search for dialogue and cooperation (“zero problems policy” with neighbors

5. Turkey’s “neighborhood policy” • Similarities: with EMP and ENP: • Objective: • Ultimately seek a stable, peaceful, democratic and liberal market oriented integrated neighborhood • Tools: • greater trade and where possible FTAs, • “people to people contacts” • conflict mediation/resolution

6. Turkey’s “neighborhood policy” • Differences: “institutional set up and performance” • TR’s policy is one of default • Though very recently the beginnings of institutionalization through FTAs with a series of Arab countries • Differences in philospohy/practice: • No policy of “conditionality” • Action oriented just expand trade and free movement of people • Interdependence and rise economic prosperity will lead to dialogue, conflict resolution and ultimately reform

7. Origins of and factors driving Turkey’s “default” neighborhood policy • Influence of personalities (From Özal to Cem and Davutoğlu/Erdoğan/Gül) • Transformation of the Turkish economy and foreign trade (slides 11, 12, 13 and 14) • Rise of “Anatolian Tigers” and close ties with AKP • Frustration with Schengen Visa Regime and benefits of a liberal visa policy (slides 15-18) • The limits of the Customs Union

8. Major differences between Turkey’s “neighborhood policy” and ENP/EMP • In Turkey’s case significant growth of trade and trade diversification vs. EU energy oriented trade with EMP countries and access restrictions to the Internal Market • Schengen “paper wall” vs. visa-free movement of people • “conditionality/reform vs. “laissez faire” promotion of reform by default • “talk to all parties”

9. Limits of Turkey’s “new” policy • Impact of PM’s rhetorics • Limits of “zero problems” with the neighbors and the neighborhood • Difficult to envisage regional integration without Israel • Dangers of becoming an economic “hegemon” • Slow down/stalling of democratization process • The EU dimension

10. What can be done? • Do what Peter Harling from ICG (24.2.2011), Charles Grant (March 2011 CER Policy), Katinka Barysch (16 March 2011) and Nathalie Tocci/Jean-Pierre Cassarino in “A New Neighborhood Policy fo the EU” say • “TALK TO TURKEY” especially to civil society • Turkey smoothen the “over-confidence” recognize for all its ills the EU is a grand partner for Turkey that can benefit Turkey domesitically and in its neighborhood

11. Table I Foreign trade and the Turkish economy between 1975 and 2010 (in USD billion)

12. Comparison of the Turkish economy and its neighborhood

13. Table: Foreign trade relations between Turkey and its neighbors in million USD - 1991 and 2008

14. FOREIGN TRADE BETWEEN TURKEY AND VARIOUS REGIONS 1991-2010

15. Movement of people into Turkey between 2000 and 2009 1: Data include: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom and after 2004 Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. About 70% of EU citizens coming to Turkey come from countries such as Germany, the Netherland or Belgium who have a significant number of citizens of Turkish origins. 2: Data include: Russia, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan 3: Data include: Greece, Bulgaria and Romania 4: Data include: Syria, Iraq and Iran Source: SOPEMI report 2009 and data obtained from the Foreigners Department of MOI.

16. Entries into Turkey from various regions 1991-2010

17. Table: GDP of Turkey and Neighborhood countries

18. GDP of Turkey and Free Trade Agreement countries

19. TURKEY-NEIGHBORHOOD TRADE BALANCE

20. Table I: Entry of persons from the neighborhood of Turkey in 1995, 2002 and 2008

21. Table II: Schengen visas issued for the nationals of the southern Mediterranean and Eastern ENP countries for 2003 and 2009

23. Table II: Foreign Trade between Turkey and Its Immediate Neighbors in 1995, 2002 and 2008

24. Table III: Foreign Trade between Turkey and Barcelona Process Countries in 1995, 2002 and 2008

25. Table IV: Trade Numbers between EU and Barcelona Process Countries in 1995 and 2008

26. Table V: Energy exports[1] from Mashriq and Mahgreb countries by Turkey and the EU [1] Defined as mineral fuels, lubricants, and other related materials.