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Harmonization process between inventory and Model projections of Air Pollution Emissions in Italy

Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment. T. Pignatelli , G. Vialetto, I. D’Elia ENEA M. Contaldi, R. De Lauretis APAT. Harmonization process between inventory and Model projections of Air Pollution Emissions in Italy.

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Harmonization process between inventory and Model projections of Air Pollution Emissions in Italy

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  1. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment T. Pignatelli,G. Vialetto, I. D’Elia ENEA M. Contaldi, R. De Lauretis APAT Harmonization process between inventory and Model projections of Air Pollution Emissions in Italy TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  2. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment In the frame of the EU Directive2001/81/EC (NEC)and for the purposes of the GothenburgProtocol under the UN-ECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). At national level, in the frame of the techno-scientific support to the Italian Ministry for the Environment, and Local Authorities, for environment policy development. International and National Context ENEA, in cooperation with other national agencies (APAT) and experts, develops emission scenarios and environment/health impact analyses. TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  3. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Integrated Assessment Modelling Tool TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  4. Input Output • Emission scenarios • Cost Curves • Deposition maps • Concentration maps • Impact on Environment and Health • Economic Activities • Energy Scenario RAINS-Italy • CONTROL STRATEGY • (Abatement technologies) Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Rains-Italy Model Simplified flow chart TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  5. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Harmonization between Inventory and Model calculations Emissions calculated, at the reference year (2000), in Inventory and in the Model analysis, must be consistent The need for harmonization is due to: The Model must be validated through comparison with an independent reference. Harmonization means: The robustness of the model projections is strictly related with the consistency, within an acceptable uncertainty margin, between inventory and model calculation. Since the harmonization is a common practice in the frame of the EU and UN-ECE analyses, for comparison purposes,the harmonization is therefore opportune. TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  6. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Harmonization Methodology: Differences in Emission Calculation E = ΣjΣk Actj * Efj * (1 – ŋjk) * Afjk Actj= Activity level in sector j Efj= Unabated Emission Factor per unit of activity level, in sector j Emission Calculation in the RAINS-Italy Model (1 – ŋjk) * Afjk= Residual emissions after abatement, by technology k in sector j Emission Calculation in Inventory Ej = Actj * EFj EFj = Total Emission Factor (abatement included) in sector j TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  7. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Harmonization Process Flow chart Consistency between Total Emission Factors Assessment of Emission consistency Equivalence in activity levels Adjustment of the ControlStrategy (Tech penetration rates) Adjustment of non-abated Emission Factors (country-specific) Applied to those sectors where greater mismatches are observed, till an acceptable gap is achieved (usually <5~6% on total emissions) TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  8. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Harmonization Methodology (1) Differences between Inventory and Model methodology 1) RAINS sectors have a higher level of aggregation with respect the SNAP Codes and very often there is no correspondence (e.g. INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION sector: 2 sub-sectors in RAINS for the whole SNAP03 code). 2) Some sources are considered in RAINS and NOT in the Inventory (or viceversa). Livestock emissions: rabbits were considered in the national inventory but not in the RAINS-IT model Sources NOT included in the PM10 Inventory (kton): Handling & Storage 1,8 Agriculture 14,9 Small Industry 9,1 Other (BBQ, Constr., Firew., Smoking) 11,2 Total 37,2 Invent.+Sources NOT incl. 217,12 Difference (5,9%) 13,66 TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  9. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Harmonization Methodology (2) Differences between Inventory and Model methodology 3) In some cases for the same source a different activity level is considered in the RAINS model with respect the national inventory (ex. the DRY CLEANING sector for NMVOC emission calculation: the RAINS activity level is the ktons of clothes while the national inventory activity level is the number of dry cleaning machines). 4) In few cases RAINS sectors have a higher level of details with respect the SNAP Codes and a compromise is not always easy achievable (ex. the PRINTING sector for NMVOC emission calculation). Same SNAP code for different RAINS sources TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  10. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Harmonization results for Italy at the year 2000 Max gap (PM10) = 5,9 % TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  11. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment NEC Directive Review ProcessNational Emission Scenarios by RAINS-IT SO2 CLE Emission Scenario (kt/year) NEC target: 475 kton TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  12. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment NEC Directive Review ProcessNational Emission Scenarios by RAINS-IT NH3 CLE Emission Scenario (kt/year) NEC target: 419 kton TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  13. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment NEC Directive Review ProcessNational Emission Scenarios by RAINS-IT VOC CLE Emission Scenario (kt/year) NEC target: 1159 kton TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  14. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment NEC Directive Review ProcessNational Emission Scenarios by RAINS-IT PM10 CLE Emission Scenario (kt/year) TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  15. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment NEC Directive Review ProcessNational Emission Scenarios by RAINS-IT NOx CLE Emission Scenario (kt/year) NEC target: 990 kton TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  16. Compliance with the NOx emission ceiling Main methodological changes 1)Review of the removal efficiencies of the abatement technologies applied to road light & heavy duty vehicles 2) Different share in the fuel consumptions in the maritime transport sector, starting from the year 2000. TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  17. Compliance with the NOx emission ceiling Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Re-calculated NOx projection at 2010 (*)2010 NOx Target for Italy 990 TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

  18. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Conclusions 1) The harmonization betweenInventory and Model emission calculation is needed for the purposes of the international and national policy analyses, also increasing the robustness of the projections 2) Methodological differences exist between Inventory and Model calculations. By a careful comparison analysis, sector by sector, an acceptable level of consistency can be achieved. 3) Such comparisonprovides useful indications to improve the quality of both the Inventory and the Model output. 4) The Emission Projection Analysis, in Italy, shows a condition of NEC compliance for SO2, NH3, VOC and possible incompliance for NOx, pending issues concerning the changes occurred in methodology TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections– Thessaloniki, 30-31 October,2006

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