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Linkages between air pollution and climate

M. Amann G. Klaassen , R. Mechler, J. Cofala, C. Heyes International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Modelling synergies and trade-offs between mitigation of GHGs and air pollution with the RAINS model. Linkages between air pollution and climate.

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Linkages between air pollution and climate

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  1. M. Amann G. Klaassen, R. Mechler, J. Cofala, C. HeyesInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Modelling synergies and trade-offs between mitigation of GHGs and air pollution with the RAINS model

  2. Linkages between air pollution and climate • Air pollutants have radiative forcing: • Ozone controls serve air quality and climate concerns • Aerosols/PM damage human health and influence climate • Environmental impacts of CC and AP are interlinked • Synergies and trade-offs in emission controls

  3. A multi-pollutant/multi-effect frameworkextended to GHGs

  4. Introducing GHGs into RAINS • Develop cost curves for GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6) in addition to SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM, (BC, CO) • Country-by-country, medium-term up to 2030 • Include structural changes as means for emission controls • Capture synergies and trade-offs

  5. CO2 control options in the power sector

  6. CO2 cost curve Germany, power sector, 2020

  7. Options to control CH4

  8. CH4 cost curve France, 2020

  9. First preliminary results

  10. Data and assumptions • Latest RAINS energy- & cost data • For EU-25, excluding Cyprus and Malta (EU-23) • For 2020

  11. Reference case (REF) • CAFE “without climate measures” energy projections for 2020 • Air pollution control according to recent EU legislation (NEC Directive, LCP Directive, Auto-Oil, etc.)

  12. Scenario 1: Fuel-shift CO2 control in the power sector • Cost-effective fuel shift measures to reduce CO2 emissions in the power sector by 15 % • Subject to exogenous electricity demand

  13. Fuel shifts applied to reduce CO2 emissions

  14. Changes in emissionscompared to REF, EU-23 Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel 0 0 CO2[Mt] SO2[kt] -50 -50 -100 -100 -150 -150 -200 -200 -250 -250 10 30 0 20 -10 10 -20 0 -30 -40 -10 PM2.5[kt] -50 NOx[kt] -20 -60 -30 -70 -80 -40 Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel

  15. Differences in premature deaths(cases/year, compared to REF) Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000

  16. Emission control costs(billion €/yr, compared to REF)

  17. Scenario 2: Multi-gas Multi-GHG control • In each country, the equivalent CO2 reductions of the Fuel-shift scenario are achieved with CO2and CH4 controls

  18. CH4 reduction measures applied in the Multi-gas scenario

  19. Fuel shifts applied in the Fuel-shift and Multi-gas scenarios

  20. Changes in emissionscompared to REF, EU-23 Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel 0 0 CO2[Mt] SO2[kt] -50 -50 -100 -100 -150 -150 CH4 CH4 -200 -200 -250 -250 10 30 0 20 -10 10 -20 0 -30 -40 -10 PM2.5[kt] -50 NOx[kt] -20 -60 -30 -70 -80 -40 Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel

  21. Differences in premature deaths(cases/year, compared to REF) Fuel-shift Multi-gas Bio-fuel 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000

  22. Emission control costs(billion €/yr, compared to REF)

  23. Scenario 3: Bio-fuels Increased biomass use in households • Shift to biomass use for domestic heating:10% of light fuel oil is replaced by biomass

  24. Changes in emissionscompared to REF, EU-23 CO2[Mt] SO2[kt] CH4 PM2.5[kt] NOx[kt]

  25. Differences in premature deaths(cases/year, compared to REF)

  26. Emission control costs(billion €/yr, compared to REF)

  27. Further work • Finalization of cost curves for other GHGs • Optimization tool: • Separate and joint optimization of emission controls for air pollutants and GHGs: • With constraints (targets) for air quality • With constraints (targets) for radiative forcing/GWP • Simulation of emission trading, emission taxes • Implementation for developing countries

  28. Conclusions (1) • Important synergies and trade-offs exist between air pollution control and GHG mitigation • Integration can maximize synergies and avoid trade-offs • To be truly cost-effective, climate policies have to account for cost savings of reducing traditional air pollutants - both for industrialized and developing countries

  29. Conclusions (2) Multi-pollutant/multi-effect/multi-scale strategies: • offer more flexibility and increased potential for economic efficiency • harness multiple benefits of measures when costs are increasing • connect global long-term climate objectives with concrete local near-term benefits

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