Plan for Today: Concluding Structural Factors and Introducing Strategic Actors

1. Plan for Today:Concluding Structural Factors and Introducing Strategic Actors Assess role of civic culture and facilitating events as “structural” factors. Sum up overall importance of structural factors. Become familiar with actors in transition and typical relations among them.

2. Types of Structural Preconditions Civic Culture

3. Almond & Verba, The Civic Culture (1963) • “Civic political culture” necessary for stable democracy. • Citizens: • Feel competent • Have urge to participate • Are tolerant of diversity • Are positive towards their political institutions • Problem: causal direction between democracy and civic culture?

4. Authors on pro-democratic political culture • Alexis de Tocqueville: Democracy in America • Robert Putnam: Making Democracy Work • “civic community” in northern Italy

5. Relationship between political culture and democracy Civic Culture Democracy

6. Facilitating Historical Events • Economic crisis • Losing a major military conflict

7. Legitimacy in democracies vs. non-democracies • Performance as source of legitimacy for recent authoritarian regimes. • Legitimacy to particular government rather than procedures of regime.

8. Legitimacy in democracies vs. non-democracies • Democratic regimes: legitimacy of regime rules and procedures as well as current government.

9. Facilitating Historical Events • Economic Crisis • E.g. oil crises 1973-4 and 1979 • Oil-importing countries suffered. • Argentina, Greece.

10. Facilitating Historical Events • Loss of Major Military Conflict • Argentina (Falklands-Malvinas) • Greece (Cyprus) • Portugal (colonial wars) • USSR (Afghanistan)

11. Conclusion on Structural Factors

12. Strategic Actors in Transitions to Democracy aka “Transitology”

13. “Transition” The interval between one regime and another ??

14. Role of Uncertainty in Transitions • Actions much less determined by structural factors during transition. • Sense of freedom, loss of fear.

15. Actors in Transition Dynamics(Huntington model) Government Reformers Standpatters Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Extremists Moderates Opposition

16. Actors in Transition Dynamics(O’Donnell & Schmitter) Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

17. South Africa Case • Hard-liners (standpatters) in government: • Hard-line apartheid supporters in white minority government (verkrampte faction of National Party, Conservative Party). • Soft-liners (reformers) in government: • E.g. F.W. de Klerk – if no reform, regime unsustainable. • Moderates in opposition: • Mandela in ANC – limit demands to political procedural democracy, not economic. • Radicals in opposition: • Demand socioeconomic equality (Communist Party) or African-run regime (Inkatha Freedom Party). • Willing to use violence.

18. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

19. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

20. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

21. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

22. Balance of Power Among Players • If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur. • If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely. • If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.