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Kern County Economic Strength & Key Issues

Explore the economic strength of Kern County, California and the key issues impacting its growth. From job growth and petroleum production to agriculture and housing, discover the opportunities and challenges facing the county.

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Kern County Economic Strength & Key Issues

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  1. Kern County . . . Economic Strength & Key Issues John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs …U.S. Jobs Almost All The Way Back

  3. California Economic Cycle 2008-2010 -1,066,400 2011-2014 +1,315,558 2014 Up 2.0% +287,726

  4. Kern County: Job Growth Far More Than Double The Recession Loss 2010-2014e = +40,171

  5. Two Ways Economies Grow

  6. 1. Gold Mine Theory … Historic Scenario Secondary Tier Primary Tier

  7. Growth of Economic Base: Jobs

  8. Economic Base: Changing Importance Falling Rising

  9. Kern County Ranked 3rd In U.S. Petroleum Production, 2013

  10. Oil & Natural Gas ProductionDeclining Oil & Natrual Gas Production Kern & Tulare Counties, 1999-2012 221.9 220.0 Oil (bbl) Natural Gas (mcf) 216.4 209.8 209.5 209.0 200.9 198.8 191.6 193.1 185.2 184.8 179.7 178.6 176.7 170.2 166.2 165.0 162.3 159.9 154.5 154.8 150.2 148.1 143.3 143.2 141.7 139.3 Millions Fracking? 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CA Department of Convervation, Oil & Gas Division

  11. Oil Prices Plunging:Fracking Targeted by Saudis?

  12. Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps to use Poverty Issue to Fight Off Environmentalists

  13. Military Spending

  14. DOD Civilian Expenditures 2000-2010: 21.5% CPI: 39.5%

  15. DOD Employment Changes

  16. Key Need: Kevin McCarthy Is House Whip – Protect Local Sector

  17. Kern County Agriculture Soaring

  18. Huge Increase in Value of Kern County Agricultural Production 2000-2013: up $4.56 Billion 206.4% v. 39.5% Inflation

  19. Key Needs: CA Water Policy; U.S. Trade Policy

  20. 2.“Dirt” … Beginning Scenario! A. Affordable Housing & Population Serving Jobs Kern County

  21. Kern Co. Home Price Advantage

  22. Don’t Build Them & They’ll Come Anyway! BUILD FREEWAYS & THEY’LL COME

  23. New Home Permits: Nearing 1990s Levels CA Regulatory Policy (CEQA) Hampers Job Growth

  24. Population Growth: Recovery Gaining Speed 2010-2014 Kern Co. up 4.0% California up 2.9%

  25. Home Sales Flat

  26. Median Home Prices: Strengthening 47.6%

  27. Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument to Reform CEQA

  28. Taxable Trade: Spectacular! 40% Beyond Pre-Recession Peak

  29. Taxable Sales Growth Rates

  30. Key Need: Potential Retail Sales Thru e-Commerce Fulfillment Centers

  31. Industrial Growth

  32. Location

  33. Industrial Market – 3rd Tightest In Surrounding Markets

  34. Industrial Lease RatesThird Least Expensive of Nearby Markets 750,000 Sq. Ft.: Kern Co. Would Lease for $3.60 million a year. In L.A. County, it would be $5.58 million. Kern Co. would be -$1.98 million or -35.5% less expensive.

  35. Mfg. & Logistics Workers Are Paid Less Than In L.A., More Than Most Nearby Areas

  36. California Just 1.3% ofU.S. ManuNeeduring Job Growth CA Regulatory Policy Has Essentially StoppedManuNeeduringGrowth

  37. Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument For Regulatory Reform

  38. Logistics Los Angeles Long Beach Panama Looks Like Less Of An Issue Than It Has

  39. Deep Water Ports Handle Largest Ships

  40. Best Land Side Infrastructure At Ports

  41. So. California’s Goods Handling Complex Alameda Corridor High Tech Warehousing Interstate Rail I-5 & SR 58

  42. National Rail & Highway Links

  43. Port Container Volumes

  44. Fulfillment Centers

  45. E-Commerce Growth RatesYear Over Year by Quarter

  46. Beware: CA Regulators Now Plan To Reduce Truck Trips By Impacting Logistics Growth Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument For Regulatory Reform

  47. Office Market

  48. One of the Tightest Office Market In The U.S.

  49. Office Lease Rates: Low

  50. Physician Coverage An Issue In Many Places

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