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Wirtschaftskrise in Osteuropa

Wirtschaftskrise in Osteuropa. Michael Landesmann. Die Wirtschaftskrise in Osteuropa. Krise in ‘Emerging Markets’ Warum sich die Krise auf Osteuropa erstreckt hat? Gibt es Differenzierungen? Wirtschaftspolitische Moeglichkeiten.

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Wirtschaftskrise in Osteuropa

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  1. Wirtschaftskrise in Osteuropa Michael Landesmann

  2. Die Wirtschaftskrise in Osteuropa Krise in ‘Emerging Markets’ Warum sich die Krise auf Osteuropa erstreckt hat? Gibt es Differenzierungen? Wirtschaftspolitische Moeglichkeiten

  3. Industrieproduktion, 2007-2009moving 3-month average, annual growth in % Source: wiiw Monthly Database.

  4. Exporte (goods), 2006-2009EUR-based, Jan 2006 = 100 Source: wiiw Monthly Database.

  5. Wechselkurse*, 2006-2010EUR per NCU, end of period, Jan 2006 = 100 Mar-09 Jun-09 Mar-10 *An increasing line indicates appreciation. Source: wiiw Monthly Database.

  6. (Nominal) exchange rate developments against the Eur, 2 January – 14 November 2008

  7. Zinssatzentwicklungen, three-months inter-bank rates, 2 January – 14 November 2008

  8. 1993-2000 2001-2007 Wachstum – BIP pro Kopf zu KKP annual averages 1996-2001 and 2002-2008, in per cent 2002-2008 1996-2001 Source: Eurostat.

  9. Arbeitslosigkeitsratenin %, annual average Source: wiiw Database incorporating national statistics, LFS.

  10. Budgetdefizite, 1998-2008in % of GDP Source: Eurostat.

  11. Leistungsbilanz in % of GDP, 1996-2008 Source: wiiw Database incorporating national statistics.

  12. BIP Wachstum und Leistungsbilanzdefizit y -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 x -3.0 Poland Bulgaria Czech R. Romania Hungary -6.0 Slovenia -9.0 Slovakia -12.0 Lithuania Estonia -15.0 -18.0 Latvia -21.0 -24.0 y: GDP growth in %, decline 2007-2009 x: Current account in % of GDP, 2007 Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics, Eurostat.

  13. Leistunsbilanzdefizit und CDS (Credit Default Swaps)

  14. Unterschiede zwischen fixen und flexiblen Wechselkursregimen –large capital inflows and extension of external balance sheets Source: wiiw Database incorporating national statistics, Eurostat.

  15. Hohe Leistungsbilanzdefizite in Laendern mit fixen Wechselkursregimen - balance on current account (in % of GDP) Source: wiiw Database incorporating national statistics, Eurostat.

  16. 100% 100% Czech Republic 90% 90% Hungary Poland 80% 80% Slovakia Romania 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% Bulgaria Estonia 20% 20% Latvia 10% 10% Lithuania 0% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H1 - 08 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H1 - 08 Kreditwachstum des privaten SektorsDomestic credit growth (in % of GDP)

  17. Ukraine - Wachstumsraten, 2004-2008quarterly, year-on-year change in % Source: wiiw Database incorporating national statistics.

  18. Stahlpreis und Industrieproduktion Source: wiiw Monthly Database incorporating national statistics and CRU steel price index.

  19. Welche Krise? • Contagion, capital accounts crisis, devaluations • Laenge der Krise? • Laenger-fristige Auswirkungen?

  20. Der Weg aus der Krise – was sollte gemacht werden? • Policy reactions and policy challenges: same challenges as in more advanced economies (but often in worse circumstances): stabilize financial system; adjust to new capital accounts situation; avoid exchange rate over-shooting; attempt anti-cyclical fiscal measures; intensify labour market policies • Policy support from outside (EU, EU partners, IFIs) is vital!

  21. Anti-crisis policies Budget deficit/GDP on the rise due to lower revenues and rigid expenditures, more expensive deficit financing Limited scope for fiscal stimulus Modest demand stimulation: Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic Neutral fiscal policy, but expenditure shifts to SMEs, public investments: Bulgaria, Poland, Romania Pro-cyclical policy, but revenues and expenditures shift: Baltics, Hungary Monetary policy: limited expansion (lower policy rate, lower reserve ratio) Differences by exchange rate regimes Eurozone: Slovenia, Slovakia – competitiveness problem Fixed in Baltics, Bulgaria – adjustment through cost reduction; managed devaluation? Flexible in the Czech R., Poland, Romania, Hungary – adjustment also by depreciation Intention to join Eurozone soon to gain stability: Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania

  22. Longer-term outlook 2010, 2011 recovery depends on global (European) prospects External financing, especially loans remain scarce and expensive Need for domestic savings to finance investments EU transfers increase, more in 2010 and beyond FDI inflows shrink to half Cost competitiveness may attract relocation

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