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Australia Through The Looking Glass

Australia Through The Looking Glass. pictures courtesy of www.alice-in-wonderland.net. Craig James Chief Equities Economist, CommSec, July 2009. Important information.

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Australia Through The Looking Glass

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  1. Australia Through The Looking Glass pictures courtesy of www.alice-in-wonderland.net Craig James Chief Equities Economist, CommSec, July 2009

  2. Important information This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the ASX Group. Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.

  3. An alternate world of surprises, challenges and rewards… • Global recession…but healing process begins • China lifts, US stabilises, Australia more confident • Inventories, tighter terms, cash-flow issues • Winners & challenges • Winners…home buyers, building trades • Challenges…finance-dependent firms • Still hurdles to clear

  4. Global recession…hits Australia • One moment boom, next moment bust…hope rests with emerging nations…especially China

  5. …but encouraging signs • Boom to bust…then recovery…major hopes rest with China www.novinite.com

  6. Australia…on the mend • Aggressive stimulus • Recession avoided • Confidence improves • Housing stronger • And unemployment? www.fugrospatial.com

  7. Housing & infrastructure lead the way… • Home building set to rebound…China, population & stimulus drive infrastructure

  8. Conservative consumers

  9. All eyes on the job market • Companies flexible on hours & pay …not hiring, not firing…… Gen Y reaction www.matthewferrara.com

  10. So where to for interest rates? • Longer-term rates lift, highlighting confidence……but at what point does policy respond?

  11. Aussie dollar…winners & losers • ‘Parity parties’ one moment……into the barrel but out the other side

  12. Optimism or exuberance? • Perception that the worst is over…but have investors got too excited?…

  13. Shares: Fate in others hands • Tight correlation with US…but doesn’t exist forever

  14. Important signposts • Sharemarket turns before economy…jobs in focus

  15. Recovery watchlist • US housing over-supply • US banking system • Commercial property • Rising fuel prices • Inflation/deflation • US dollar & debt • Geopolitical – North Korea

  16. CommSec forecasts www.uml.edu

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