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FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis

FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www.metafuture.org Six Pillars of Foresight Mapping the future Anticipating the future Timing the future Deepening the future Creating alternatives

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FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis

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  1. FUTURES STUDIESCausal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www.metafuture.org

  2. Six Pillars of Foresight Mapping the future Anticipating the future Timing the future Deepening the future Creating alternatives Transforming the future

  3. DEEPENING THE FUTURECausal layered analysis

  4. Litany: - visible - disconnected news events • Systemic: - social, technological, economic, environmental and political causes • Discourses: - stakeholders - ideologies - worldviews • Myths-metaphors: - stories - legends - myths of trauma and transcendence

  5. Causal Layered Analysis Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions Litany Social causes STEEP analysis Public Unconscious Superficial Deep Meaning Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview Worldview Emotional, images or deep meanings Myth

  6. Causal Layered Analysis

  7. CLA “real” Litany REALITY Social system & structure Worldview Myth & Metaphor “imagined” TIME Long term Short term

  8. CLA - Stakeholders management Employees L O N G T E R M Unofficial Official Stakeholders

  9. CLA - Ideologies conservative L O N G T E R M Feminist Green Ideologies Left

  10. CLA - Worldviews Indigenous Confucian L O N G T E R M Islamic Worldviews West

  11. CLA - Epistemes Post-modern Pre-modern L O N G T E R M Modern Ancient Conventional Epistemes

  12. METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE

  13. CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX Spaceship Earth (Technology) Collapse (Worst case) Gaia (Ecological) Modernist (Business as usual) Litany Social causes Worldview Myth Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

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