Causal Analysis

1. Causal Analysis Chapter 10 Pg 193

2. One Form • One CAUSE leads to ONE OR MORE EFFECTS

3. Second Form • One EFFECT has SEVERAL CAUSES

4. Third Form • Something causes something to happen which causes something to happen

5. That’s Not All!

6. Stop – Let’s Analyze • IS IT A Trend? • More girls going into the sciences • IS IT A Phenomena? • Divorce in America • IS IT AN Event? • 9-11

7. Methods of Analyzing • Common Factor • Look at all cases of a phenomenon, find a single factor that is common to all of them. That is likely the cause • Everyone in dormitory ate at the cafeteria • Everyone got sick that night • Everyone could have gotten sick from eating in the cafeteria • This can go wrong though! Correlation NOT causation

8. Methods of Analyzing • Single Difference Method • In two similar situations, with only one leading to an effect • All children born in a hospital in 2011 are studied • ½ of the children were nursed, ½ were not • The nursed half had IQ’s that were, on average 20 points above the half who were not nursed • Cause of higher IQ’s is nursing • Problem: Correlation is not causation

9. Methods of Analyzing • Concomitant Variation • Similar pattern of variation between a possible cause and a possible effect • Different children were given different amounts of television in their day • The children getting the most television had the worst GPAs • The children getting the least television had the best GPAs • Problem – Potential correlation, not causation

10. Methods of Analyzing • Process of Elimination • You are fairly certain a lowfat diet causes heart patients to heal faster • However, some of patients have developed poor lung functions • Poor lung functions occurred in patients with high fat diets and patients with lowfat diets • Further investigation shows that a nurse has been mishandling meds to the poor lung function patients • The mishandled meds are the “left over” factor • Potential correlation – not causation

11. Keys to Causal Analysis • Pay attention to effects • Dalamations • Identify what is at stake • Creationism • Move beyond the obvious to see underlying cause • Address all causes not just the ones you are focusing on to see CUMULATIVE effects • Avoid mistaking correlation for causation • Deaths by drowning and baseball games increase during the same time period

12. Your Turn • Pg 198 • Pg 205 • Pg 212 • Pg 236

13. Stay On Track • Explain why it matters • Readers need to know why the cause/effect is important • Set up for the position AND the problem solution paper • Make an arguable claim • Easy answers are bad arguments! • If all sources agree about the cause and effect, there is no need for you to make another argument • Look for a phenomenon that isn’t fully agreed upon

14. Your Paper • List trends and/or problems on right side of your paper • List causes of the problems on the right side • Underline the causes you are most confident in • Which topics are most interesting? • If an entry has many underlined causes or effects, it may be too obvious

15. Ask • What causal factors are hidden from the general public and why? • How do causal factors interact? • What causes the cause – follow the cycle backward

16. Analyze your Audience • Think about who is affected by the phenomenon you are investigating • How will those interested be affected by your analysis?

17. Research your analysis • Seek out disagreement among your sources • When they disagree ask why! • Lookout for new potential causes or new findings

18. Consider your Cause Diagram