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SCLC/ECC Spring 2007 Meeting International Trade Update Stephen Lamar Exec. Vice President

SCLC/ECC Spring 2007 Meeting International Trade Update Stephen Lamar Exec. Vice President American Apparel & Footwear Association. Elections. Elections were NOT about Trade General dissatisfaction on economy (incl. trade) Trade dominant in several elections

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SCLC/ECC Spring 2007 Meeting International Trade Update Stephen Lamar Exec. Vice President

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  1. SCLC/ECC Spring 2007 Meeting International Trade Update Stephen Lamar Exec. Vice President American Apparel & Footwear Association

  2. Elections • Elections were NOT about Trade • General dissatisfaction on economy (incl. trade) • Trade dominant in several elections • But Trade very much affected by Elections • New Congress MUCH more protectionist • Freshmen Dems • GOP no longer whipping from leadership • Trade not a priority • Pro Trade Democrats (New Dem, Blue Dog) • Chairmen Rangel and Baucus will be key

  3. How did we fare in 2006? • Two FTAs – Oman and Bahrain • Staggered CAFTA-DR Implementation • Trade Preference Programs • Haiti • AGOA • Andean • GSP • Vietnam WTO Accession • Misc. Tariff Bills • Port Security • No Schumer/Graham • Burma Sanctions Renewal (3-year)

  4. Trade Agenda for 2007 • Doha Round • TAA • CAFTA-DR Implementation • Vietnam Monitoring • Preference Program Implementation • Affordable Footwear Initiative • Pakistan ROZ • Annual Burma Sanctions Renewal • Trade/Labor • Pending FTAs • Peru • Colombia • Korea • Panama • Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) • China/Enforcement • Preference Programs • Andean • LDC • GSP • CBTPA

  5. Trade/Labor • Integral part of a Democrat trade agenda • A New Trade Policy For America • Three key labor concepts: • Internationally recognized labor rights • No derogation • Equally enforceable • Hidden agenda • Will big labor really support trade? • Big issues over whether this changes US labor laws • New Anti-Sweatshop push?

  6. Current and Future U.S. Free Trade Agreements • South Korea • Malaysia • FTAA • ASEAN • Middle East • Ecuador • SACU • UAE • Thailand • Japan • Israel • NAFTA • Jordan • Chile • Singapore • Australia • Morocco • CAFTA-DR* • Bahrain • Oman • Peru • Colombia • Panama *El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and DR only. Note: Peru, Colombia and Ecuador may be merged. Note: Oman approved by Congress but not yet entered into force. In force Under negotiationStalled/Downgraded Pending Regional InitiativesPotential

  7. FTA Issues • Peru and Colombia • Labor rights concerns • Environmental concerns in Peru • Human Rights concerns in Colombia • Andean expiration • Panama • Labor rights • Canal project • South Korea • Big agreement; huge priority • Controversy • Beef • Autos

  8. Doha Round • Launched Nov 2002 • Development agenda • Faltered July 2006 • Key issues • Agricultural issues • Subsidies • Market Access • Developing countries • NAMA • Textile mischief

  9. Trade Promotion Authority • Ability of President to negotiate trade agreements • Congressional power of attorney • Up or Down Vote • Consultation • Expires June 30, 2007 • No more FTAs or Doha Round until renewed.

  10. CAFTA-DR Status and Issues • El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, DR, & Guatemala Have Implemented • Costa Rica Joining 1st Quarter 2008? • Cumulation Deal • Pocketing Deal • DR Trousers • Sock Safeguard? • Nicaragua TPL • Retroactivity • Regulations Published

  11. U.S. Apparel Imports from DR-CAFTA Region Source: OTEXA, U.S. Commerce Department.

  12. CAFTA-DR: Positive Signs • Investments Up • Nicaragua Apparel Imports Up • CAFTA Apparel Import Decline Flattening • US Yarn Exports Up • Individual Product Growth • Dresses 40 percent • PJs 167 percent

  13. What to Do About China? • - Huge budget deficit • - Vocal and active “blame China” crowd • - China Concerns: • - Labor/human rights • - IPR Issues (WTO) • - Currency • - Subsidies (WTO) • Politically popular to use trade remedies/safeguards • CVD Issues • Expect China legislation • - Wrapped up in “enforcement” debate

  14. A few words on Vietnam • WTO Accession – January 11, 2007 • Quota free on January 11, 2007 • Vietnam PNTR Approved • Anti Subsidy Safeguard • Expires January 10, 2008 (July 10, 2009) • Dole/Graham commitment • Monitoring • Review every 6 months • Earliest liability for AD duties – mid-August 2006 • Expires January 20, 2009 • Electoral Mischief? • Precedent for China?

  15. For the rest of the Bush Administration… • June 30, 2007 – Expiration of TPA • June 30, 2007 – Expiration of ATPDEA • December 31, 2007 – Expiration of TAA • January 10, 2008 – Expiration of Vietnam safeguard • September 30, 2008 – Expiration of CBTPA • December 31, 2008 – Expiration of China agreement • December 31, 2008 – Expiration of GSP • January 20, 2009 – Expiration of Vietnam monitoring

  16. Final thought

  17. Final thought

  18. Thank You American Apparel and Footwear Association 1601 N. Kent Street, 12th Floor Arlington, VA 22209 703-797-9041 slamar@apparelandfootwear.org www.apparelandfootwear.org

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