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Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007

This presentation delves into how matching the growth rates of other small European countries in GDP per person from 1977 to 2007 could have impacted Scotland's economy. It highlights calculations, underlying assumptions, and the potential £900 per head difference. Detailed analysis of growth rates for each comparable country is provided.

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Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007

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  1. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 The white paper Scotland’s Future suggests if Scotland had matched the rate of growth of other small European countries (in GDP per person) from 1977 to 2007 Scotland would now have an additional £900 per head This presentation explains the detail of this calculation and shows how the underlying assumptions may impact on Scotland’s GDP per head All calculations shown in an accompanying Excel workbook Contact: spice@scottish.parliament.uk

  2. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 White paper shows growth for nine selected comparable countries Average annual growth across the nine countries was 2.61% from 1977 to 2007 Average annual Scottish growth was 2.48% from 1977 to 2007 Ireland 4.4% Luxembourg 3.5% Finland 2.6% Portugal 2.5% Iceland 2.4% Austria 2.2% Norway 2.1% Sweden 1.9% Denmark 1.9% Average 2.61%

  3. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 Total GDP per person growth over 30 years: Scotland: 102.48%30 = 208.5% Comparable countries: 102.61%30 = 216.5% At the Scottish rate of growth GDP per person would be 108.5% higher over the 30 years At the average comparable countries rate of growth GDP per person would be 116.5% higher over the 30 years

  4. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 GDP per person in Scotland would be 3.8% higher if it had matched the average growth rate of the selected comparable countries 216.5% - 208.5% = 3.8% 208.5% In 2011 Scottish GDP per person stood at £23,641 An extra 3.8% would be worth £902 per person

  5. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 But … Scotland grew more quickly than most of the selected comparable countries Scotland grew faster than the median (or midpoint) of the selected comparable countries Difference between average and median growth driven by Ireland Ireland 4.37% Luxembourg 3.52% Finland 2.55% Portugal 2.50% Scotland 2.48% Iceland 2.44% Austria 2.19% Norway 2.10% Sweden 1.91% Denmark 1.89% Median 2.44%

  6. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 GDP per person in Scotland would be 1.1% lower if it had matched the median (midpoint) growth rate of the selected comparable countries A loss of 1.1% would be worth £257 per person Differences can be seen more clearly by showing Scotland matching the growth of each country

  7. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 Country Growth Difference Scotland would be £17,240 per person better off if it had matched Ireland’s growth Scotland would be £3,778 per person worse off if it had matched Denmark’s growth Ireland 4.4% Luxembourg 3.5% Finland 2.6% Portugal 2.5% Iceland 2.4% Austria 2.2% Norway 2.1% Sweden 1.9% Denmark 1.9% £17,240 £8,359 £509 £160 -£257 -£1,943 -£2,475 -£3,653 -£3,778

  8. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 Excluding the top (Ireland) and bottom (Denmark) performing countries: If Ireland were removed from the average Scotland would be £629 per person worse off If Denmark were removed from the average Scotland would be £1,557 per person better off

  9. Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007 The data is not weighted so Luxembourg carries the same weight as Sweden in calculating the average The Swedish economy is around ten times the size of the economy of Luxembourg The data uses a specific period 30 year period (1977-2007) The most recent data available covers 30 years 1982-2012 Repeating the calculations for 1982-2012 …

  10. Growth in GDP per Person 1982-2012 GDP per person in Scotland grew by 2.22% per annum 1982-2012 Only Luxembourg and Ireland grew faster than Scotland Scotland grew more quickly than both the median (or midpoint) of the selected comparable countries Ireland 3.4% Luxembourg 2.9% Scotland 2.2% Finland 1.9% Austria 1.9% Portugal 1.9% Norway 1.8% Sweden 1.8% Denmark 1.5% Iceland 1.4% Average 2.05% Median 1.85%

  11. Growth in GDP per Person 1982-2012 GDP per person in Scotland would be 5.0% lower if it had matched the average growth rate of the selected comparable countries A loss of 5.0% would be worth £1,185 per person GDP per person in Scotland would be 10.2% lower if it had matched the median (midpoint) growth rate of the selected comparable countries A loss of 10.2% would be worth £2,419 per person

  12. Sensitivity of Estimates Difference in growth between Scotland and the average of selected comparable countries is shown below Red shaded areas show where growth in GDP per person in selected comparable countries was ahead of Scotland and green shaded areas show where Scotland was ahead of the selected comparable countries

  13. Sensitivity of Estimates The estimates are strongly influenced by the inclusion or exclusion of the late 70s and early 80s when Scottish performance was particularly poor compared to the selected comparable countries The key figures shown in this presentation are available in an Excel workbook

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