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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ENERGY INSECURITY: INDONESIA OVERVIEW

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ENERGY INSECURITY: INDONESIA OVERVIEW. Asclepias R. S. Indriyanto Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics “Mapping Causal Complexity in Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation” Nautilus Institute & RMIT University Sydney Myer Asia Centre, University of Melbourne

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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ENERGY INSECURITY: INDONESIA OVERVIEW

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  1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ENERGY INSECURITY:INDONESIA OVERVIEW Asclepias R. S. Indriyanto Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics “Mapping Causal Complexity in Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation” Nautilus Institute & RMIT University Sydney Myer Asia Centre, University of Melbourne 21-22 November 2008

  2. Presentation Outline • Indonesia Energy System • Energy Security and Sustainable Development • Indonesia and the Region

  3. Final Energy Consumption 2006 • Industry: major energy user, • variety of energy sources • Household: major energy consumer, • 73% use firewood • Transport: relies heavily on oil products, • usage of gas and electricity are • negligible • Oil products and conventional biomass dominates final energy consumption • Electricity share: 8% - 12% Electricity generation is heavily dependent on oil products and coal

  4. Primary Energy Mix • 2005: • 0.96 Million BOE without firewood • 1.23 Million BOE including firewood • Oil share 49%, less than in the previous decade • Other NRE = majority hydro • BAU 2025: • 3.26 Million BOE without firewood • (2.65 times the size in 2005) • Oil share reduces a bit, but remains dominant • Coal share increase to 34.5% • Other NRE = majority hydro • Target 2025 (Pres Regulation 5/2006): • Oil share shrinks to 20% • Coal 33% and gas 30% • Other NRE: biofuel 5%, coal liquefaction 2%, others 5% Source: Presentation by Data & Information Center of MEMR, 5 Nov 2008 GOI estimates CO2/capita increase from 1.54 in 2005 to 3.54 in 2025

  5. Energy Infrastructure • Economic development has been focused on Java • 60% of national population, 77% of electricity generating capacity (plus 7000MW coal plants under construction), interconnected electricity grid, gas transmission pipeline on Java & from Sumatera, etc • Affect the selection of technology and energy resources • Heavy burden at the northern part of Java • But Java has many limitations • Energy resources: no coal, relatively small oil and gas, geothermal potentials are still undeveloped. Need to transport energy from other islands and absorb most of imported fuels • Limited possibility for expansion: occupied land, natural port locations • Land conversion and degradation lead to severe lost of forest cover, water deficit, shorten life of dams • Northern part of Java: land occupation for population and industry, ground water extraction, port facilities • Need to revisit the national development strategy

  6. Energy Security and Sustainable Development

  7. Indonesia and the Region • Indonesia has many natural resources, has been exporting fossil energy: oil, gas, coal • Current pressure between export and domestic needs • Difficult position with respect to ASEAN plans to interconnect energy infrastructure: TAGP, TAEG. • Interconnection in Java, Sumatera • May not be able to maintain energy export • Important for Indonesia to develop energy resources and the economy of the other islands

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