The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; A Research to Operations transition organization

1. The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; A Research to Operations transition organization Lars Peter Riishojgaard Director, JCSDA COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

2. JCSDA Partners COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

3. JCSDA mission: …to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models. COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

4. JCSDA Strategic Science Priorities • Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM) • Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments • Clouds and precipitation • Assimilation of land surface observations • Assimilation of ocean surface observations • Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosol COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

5. JCSDA Mode of operation • Directed research • Carried out by the partners • Mixture of new and leveraged funding • JCSDA plays coordinating role • External research • NOAA-administered FFO • ~$1.5 M/year available => revolving portfolio of ~15 three-year projects; IPO has historically contributed $500K/year • Open to the broader research community; NRL/Monterey is the exception to this rule in being both a partner and proposer COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

6. JCSDA accomplishments • Common assimilation infrastructure (NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO) • Community radiative transfer model (all partners) • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system (EMC, GSFC, AFWA) • Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers • Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes (EMC) • MODIS polar winds (EMC, GMAO, FNMOC) • AIRS radiances assimilated (EMC, GMAO) • COSMIC data assimilation (EMC) • Improved physically based SST analysis (EMC) • Advanced satellite data systems such as DMSP (SSMIS), CHAMP GPS, WindSat tested for implementation (EMC) • Data denial experiments completed for major data base components in support of system optimization (GMAO) COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

7. JCSDA short-term goal: • “Contribute to making the forecast skill of the operational NWP systems of the JCSDA partners internationally competitive by assimilating the largest possible number of satellite observations in the most effective way” COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

8. Why renewed NWP focus? • Economic impact • Weather: $2.5 trillion annual impact on US economy • Even modest advances in forecast skill lead to huge economic gains for sectors such as agriculture, aviation, energy • Avoidance of danger to life and property (hurricanes, severe weather, etc.) • “Total value to US economy of NWP activities ~$200M per hour of useful forecast range per year” • Impact on military operations • US falling behind internationally in terms of NWP skill COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

9. Comparison of EUCOS(REF) and AMV(REF) with BASELINE (NOSAT) and CONTROL (a) northern hemisphere (b) southern hemisphere

10. NOAA/NCEP vs. ECMWF skill over 20+ years COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

11. Why is the US falling behind? • Use of satellite data • JCSDA can help, currently insufficiently resourced • Data assimilation system development; no unified US move toward next-generation (4D-VAR) data assimilation capability • JCSDA has no direct control over this, but can facilitate and coordinate collaboration on satellite data COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

12. HIRS sounder radiances AMSU-A sounder radiances AMSU-B sounder radiances GOES sounder radiances GOES, Meteosat, GMS winds GOES precipitation rate SSM/I precipitation rates TRMM precipitation rates SSM/I ocean surface wind speeds ERS-2 ocean surface wind vectors Quikscat ocean surface wind vectors AVHRR SST AVHRR vegetation fraction AVHRR surface type Multi-satellite snow cover Multi-satellite sea ice SBUV/2 ozone profile and total ozone Altimeter sea level observations (ocean data assimilation) AIRS MODIS Winds COSMIC Satellite Data used in NWP ~33 instruments

13. Number of satellite sensors that are or will be soon assimilated in the ECMWF operational data assimilation.

14. Operational implementation plans (NCEP/EMC): • Windsat 3rd Q FY08 • IASI 4th Q FY08 • ASCAT “ • COSMIC (bending angle) “ • OMI ozone “ • SSMI/S “ • GRAS (date still TBD) • Sat winds EE screening “ • GOME-2 “ COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

15. Meanwhile … • IASI, ASCAT operational at ECMWF on 06/12/2007 • IASI, ASCAT operational at the Met Office 11/28/2007 • JCSDA lagging by one to two years; inadequate planning and resource allocation • JCSDA will have to invest heavily in NPP and ADM now in order to prevent this from happening again COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

16. JCSDA and the NPOESS IPO • Close collaboration between JCSDA and IPO is essential for • Closing the gap on MetOp-A • Preparing for optimal use of NPP/NPOESS • Closing the gap on forecast skill • DoD OPCs entered JCSDA as a result of letter from Cunningham to OFCM in 2001 promising to • “provide sustained funding in the amount of up to $500 thousand per year to the JCSDA … if and only if the DoD OPCs are integrated into the center” COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

17. JCSDA/IPO history (II) • NRL/Monterey and AFWA were made full JCSDA partners • Agreement with Steve Mango that IPO funds be competed openly via JCSDA FFO • Scientific priorities guiding FFO announcement and selection set by JCSDA management and Science Steering Committee with full transparency toward and input from the IPO represented by Steve Mango COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

18. JCSDA and IPO in the future • NPOESS is the most important upcoming US satellite program for NWP and data assimilation • Data assimilation is the most important NPOESS customer • CrIS, ATMS targeted exclusively for assimilation (other sensors to a lesser extent) • Use of new data requires technical and scientific preparation and pre-launch testing • Work on precursor instruments is extremely valuable (MetOp, EOS, etc.); lack of national investment in IASI is holding back US NWP skill and is severely hurting preparations for CrIS COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

19. JCSDA/IPO in the future (II) • IPO participation in JCSDA preparatory work for NPP/NPOESS is requested • Technical readiness for data flow: servers, connections, etc (NDE) • Scientific readiness for new data; first step is to maximize the impact of heritage sensors • CrIS; AIRS, IASI • VIIRS; AVHRR, MODIS, GOES, SEVIRI, JAMI • ATMS; AMSU-A, AMSU-B, HSB, MHS • OMPS-N; SBUV, GOME-2 COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

20. IPO/JCSDA role models • ECMWF has ~10 ESA/EUMETSAT funded staff working specifically on satellite data assimilation issues • EUMETSAT funding is NOT tied to EUMETSAT satellites or sensors • GOES-R and JCSDA • Historically, GOES-R funding to JCSDA has averaged ~$700K/year (mostly from GOES-R Risk Reduction Program); additional recent commitment of 2-3 FTE’s to support EMC 4D-VAR effort COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

21. JCSDA/IPO in the future (III) • Appropriate level of staffing of NPP/NPOESS effort in JCSDA: • One lead scientist per sensor (VIIRS, CrIS, ATMS, OMPS-N) to prepare for implementation within one of the JCSDA partners • One scientific liaison per sensor responsible for technology transfer toward the other JCSDA partners • Compared to similar efforts elsewhere, this is a highly efficient way of making use of JCSDA collaboration! COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008

22. Summary • JCSDA is tasked with transferring satellite data and satellite data research from NASA and other JCSDA partners into operational environmental analysis and prediction systems at NOAA and DoD • Preparation for new sensors is a critical component • Without sustained IPO investment in JCSDA, operational use NPP/NPOESS data in the US will suffer COPC Meeting, Monterey, May 28-29, 2008