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Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft

Explore the effects of space radiation on aircraft, aviation, and satellite navigation. Learn about cosmic rays, solar flares, and geomagnetic storms, and their impact on operations and passenger safety.

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Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft

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  1. Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft European Space Weather Week: ESWW-II 17 November 2005 Captain Bryn Jones SolarMetrics Limited

  2. Overview • Space Radiation Environment • Recent Storm Impacts • Next Generation Air & Space Transportation • Integrating Space Weather into Operations • Summary

  3. SEPs CMEs Geomagnetic Storms GCRs

  4. Space Radiation Environment Background Cosmic Radiation Atmospheric Radiation at Earth Supernovae(+ other energetic astrophysical events) Galactic Cosmic Rays Cause and Effect Space Weather Events Warning time Duration Increased Atmospheric Radiation Solar min. 11-year cycle Solar Cycle Solar Cosmic Rays 4-12 hours Solar max. 10-30 mins Coronal Mass Ejection Decreased Atmospheric Radiation Forbush Decrease 2-10 days Hours - days 1-6 days 10-30 mins HF Communication Degradation Solar Flare 1-3 days 1-3 days Magnetic Storm 1-3 days 1-3 days Coronal Hole(high speed solar wind) Mins. to hours Navigation Degradation X-rays No time

  5. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) • Constant background • Modulated by Space Weather (11-year solar cycle, Coronal Mass Ejections (Forbush Decrease) etc.) • GCRs at Earth • Shielded by Earth’s magnetic field • High dose at high latitudes, low dose at low latitudes • Variation by a factor of ~2 • Atmosphere provides a further barrier • Cascade of secondary particles reaches Max Dose Rate at 60,000 ft • From 10,000 to 60,000 ft, dose rates double every ~10,000 ft

  6. Space Radiation Environment - Events Solar Cycle • Cyclic activity – 27-day, 11-year, 22-year, 88-year………. • Solar Cycle causes cosmic radiation dose rates to vary by a factor of ~2 • High doses during Solar Min., Low doses during Solar Max.

  7. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) • Massive explosion on the surface of the Sun that ejects plasma into space • Causes: • Forbush Decrease (a decrease in the background cosmic radiation dose) • warning time: hours to days • Solar Cosmic Ray event • only a small fraction of CMEs actually generate SCRs • warning time: 10 – 30 minutes • Geomagnetic Storms at Earth • warning time: 1-3 days

  8. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Solar Flares • Bright explosion on the surface of the Sun • Causes: • X-ray burst • no warning time! • Solar Cosmic Ray event • warning time: 10-30 minutes

  9. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Coronal Holes – High Speed Solar Wind Stream • High speed solar wind streams originate at coronal holes • Causes: • These events often generate geomagnetic storms when they are directed toward Earth • warning time: 1-3 day

  10. Space Radiation Environment – Cause Ionospheric Variations • Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) Events • Cause: Solar Cosmic Rays • Absorption of radio waves over the polar caps • Typically last for two to three days. • X-ray Absorption Events • Cause: Solar X-rays • Increased absorption of radio waves on sun-side • Duration is a few minutes to several hours

  11. Space Radiation Environment – Cause Radiation Environment - Increases • Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR) Events • Ground Level Event (GLE) if increase is observed by ground level monitors • GLEs occur on average once per year (65 between 1942 and 2004) • More frequent during solar maximum, less likely near solar minimum • GLEs typically last 6 to 12 hours, but peak within 1 to 3 hours • Very sensitive to altitude and latitude variations • Anisotropy – Many SEP events are anisotropic, which means that increases vary around the globe depending on location

  12. Space Radiation Environment – Cause Radiation Environment - Decreases • Forbush Decreases • Up to a 30% decrease in the dose rate caused by CMEs or high-speed solar wind streams blocking access of GCRs to the Earth • High latitudes are effected more than low latitudes • Altitude reductions may be less? • Lasts on average for 1-14 days

  13. Space Radiation Environment - Effects Future Air Transport Business Jets, Airlines Commercial Airlines Radiation Damage to Avionics Avionics • Single Event Upsets (SEU), Multiple Bit Upsets (MBU) • 256K SRAM computer withdrawn • 1 Upset per 200 flying hours in A/P • 100MB SRAM => Upsets/2 hrs, 40,000ft • 1GB SRAM => 1 Upset/minute (SPE 1989) • Hardware failures • “More Electric” aircraft, UAVs

  14. Space Radiation Environment - Effects Future Air Transport Business Jets, Airlines Commercial Airlines Radiation Damage to Humans Humans • Limit Exposure to Radiation • - Galactic Cosmic Rays • - Solar Particle Events • - Increase radiation at altitude • SPE 1989 - 2mSv • SPE 1956 - 10mSv • Higher, Longer – Over-The-Pole • Commercial Space Flights Next Generation ? Air Transport

  15. Space Radiation Environment - Effects Satellite Navigation • Cause: Magnetic storm, solar cosmic ray event • Single frequency errors up ~20 m in horizontal and vertical directions • Differential GPS reduces error to 1-2 m near reference station, but error increases with distance from station

  16. Recent Storm Impacts Operational Impacts • Complete or significant loss of comms • Delays, re-routes or diversions on Polar Routes • Air Traffic Control imposed flow restrictions over Northern Canadian routes and NAT system • GPS problems • Increase in fuel costs, loss of Cargo revenue

  17. Recent Storm Impacts FAA’s Wide-Area Augmentation Systems (WAAS) The WAAS system was seriously impacted during the Halloween Storms. For a 15-hour period on October 29 and an11-hour interval on October 30, the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit, as defined by the FAA’s Lateral Navigation Vertical Navigation (LNAV/VNAV) to be no more that 50 meters, was exceeded. That translated into commercial aircraft being unable to use the WAAS for precision approaches.

  18. Recent Storm Impacts Radiation Impacts - Halloween 2003 FAA Solar Radiation Alert issued for the following timeframes: StartEndDuration 10/28 1208 UT 10/29 0603 UT 17h 55min 10/29 2123 UT 10/30 1158 UT 14h 35min 11/02 1808 UT 11/02 2343 UT 05h 35min Was it correct? Significant Commercial Impact

  19. Next Generation Air & Space Transportation

  20. The Next Generation Air Transportation System • Joint Planning and Development Office • “Where new ideas are welcome”

  21. NGATS 2025 Concept Operating Principles • “It’s about the users…” • System-wide transformation • Prognostic approach to safety assessment • Globally harmonized • Environmentally compatible to foster continued growth Key Capabilities • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations

  22. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Research AMS_SMX Policy Study A flight is about to take off from NY to Hong Kong. NOAA SEC has recently issued an alert for a strong solar radiation storm. • What does the pilot do? • What does the airline do? • What does the air traffic controller do?

  23. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Implementation AMS_SMX Policy Study Our understanding of space weather impacts & risks on the safety & efficiency of airline operations is growing. • What should FAA, CAA, EuroControl do? • What should IATA & ICAO do? • What should the airlines do? • What should you do?

  24. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Risk Analysis QDOS Compact Monitor

  25. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Modelling Components of QARM • Models of the Cosmic ray: • Badhwar & O’Neill model, MSU model, QinetiQ model • Solar energetic protons • From GLE neutron monitor data plus GOES spacecraft • Rigidity cut-off code • MAGNETOCOSMICS/GEANT4 • Response Matrices of atmosphere to energetic particle • Atmosphere Model: MSES90, NRLMSES2001 • Particle Transport codes: MCNPX, FLUKA, GEANT4

  26. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Services SW Information & Alerting System S.M.A.R.T. Model + QinetiQ QARM Space Weather Re-planning: Optimum Flight Levels (Doses v Ops) Terrestrial Weather Aircrew Aircraft Position GLMs ATC & Other sources Detectors Airline Airline Ops/Dispatchers

  27. Summary Avionics Communications Hazard to Humans Satellite Navigation - Air Traffic Management (ATM) R I S K Technological Development

  28. Summary As our understanding of SW impacts on the airlines increases, many people are realising the need for a policy framework. Emerging issues involve: • Standardization • Legislation • Education • Better information and forecasts • Better dissemination of products • Cost/benefit analysis We must also consider how these fit within current international frameworks for aviation safety & operations

  29. Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft Questions?

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